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Saturday, May 23, 2009

Palin's Keys to Victory 2012: Insurgent, Outsider, and Populist

Since I hate making predictions so far out, I will instead lay out the strategy for Palin to win in 2012.

The way I see it is that almost everything that has happened to her so far can be used by Palin to her advantage going forward. That she has been openly mocked not only by the MSM but the establishment and even Hollywood could in fact not only turn to her advantage but be used for major advantage. If Palin runs a disciplined campaign that focuses on her being an insurgent, an outsider, and a populist that's the best strategy to carry her to victory.


If you think about it, anyone running as a truly fiscal, social, and consistent conservative would be an insurgent in this environment. While everyone else is talking about increasing spending, increasing regulations, and the size of government, Palin would need to present a domestic agenda that cuts rather than increases spending. Throughout her career, Palin has governed as a very effective fiscal conservative. As such, she should be able to speak on all of this with great credibility. Essentially, by insurgent, I would mean the anti Obama candidacy.

This includes tough border enforcement policy, the intention to choose a strict constructionist to the bench, fiscal conservatism, an innovative tax policy like either the flat tax or the fair tax, and a no nonsense and aggressive approach to foreign policy.

The beauty is that she can make all of these work and she can use the media's contempt for all of this to her advantage as well. This leads into the second part.


The more the media, hollywood, the View, and other elitists mock her the more this would play into her image as an outsider. I would have some sort of a photo op for instance of her hunting wild game in Alaska. The most interesting thing about Palin is how unconventional she is. She won a state championship with a bad ankle. She's been a whistleblower. She hunts, and her husband races snow mobiles. In this case, her whole unconventional family would play into this image. Sarah Palin is such a fascinating individual and it also creates an outsider's and unique individual persona.

Of course, the media onslaught that will happen will play right into this part of the campaign theme. The more that the MSM, Hollywood, et al mocks her the more she reinforces an image of an outsider. She's not part of their little boy's club. She doesn't go to their parties, hang out with them in the Hamptons or Martha's Vineyard. That will appeal to the rest of the country that also doesn't go to any of these places.


The most dangerous combination in politics is a truly fiscal conservative that can run a populist campaign. First, there's no doubt that a lot of the country really relates to her. Second, her low taxes small government message needs to appeal to the individual. A populist takes their message and by passes the filter of the media and takes their case directly to the people. One way to do this is a media tour of talk radio. If she takes questions from Rush's, Sean's, and Laura's audience for a an hour at a time. That would make for a great media appearance and allow her to take her message to the people directly. Another way is to hold a lot of townhall meetings.

Once again, the media onslaught will play right into the themes. Of course, the media and the elites are against this populism. After all, her vision would take power away from them and their friends and return it back to the people.

An innovative tax policy along with a policy that cuts the size of government reinforces the theme that under Palin the government will work for the people rather than for special interests. Here, she can use Obama's usurption of the auto makers in order to orchestrate a deal that's good for the UAW as an example of how expansive government works for the benefit of the special interests over the people.

Small government conservatism is inherently populist. All it needs is the right messenger, and Sarah Palin is the perfect person to fuse the two together effectively.


Unknown said...

Mike you're absolutely right and McCain should have used her In the ways you describe and he would have won

Greg said...

Found your analysis to be very interesting. So far I believe this is how Gov. Palin herself sees her chances unfolding. So far, she's held the beltway bunch at arms length, and continues to make only those appearances in the lower 48 that suit her. It must really irritate the GOP that she will be in NY on June 6 and 7th, and won't be at their fundraiser on June 8th. They had their chance, but they demanded a confirmation at a time when she wasn't ready. Their response was to start stabbing her in the back, and then went with Gingrich. Personally, I think she played it that way because she didn't want to go in the first place.

Simon said...

Your analysis assumes Obama is going to fail in his policies.

You may say his policies, but it si the perception of failure by the mass electorate that matters. His current approval ratings suggest he has a long way to go b4 being deemed a failure by the electorate.

Unfortunately reality intrudes on your wishful thinking.

This poll indicates Obama would crush Palin if the election were today.

mike volpe said...

I never said anything about Obama's policies failing. There's no question that his policies will increase the deficit and debt and the size of government. As such, the people will find a truly small government conservative platform to be an antidote.

Of course, if Obama is wildly popular in 2012, it will be difficult if not impossible to beat him.

All I did was put together the most effective strategy for Palin to win.

MLWELZ said...

Grassroots populace appeal of the Tea Parties for July 4th and September 12th will eventually show she may be on the minds of rally party goers.
No Democrat Socialist Party or RNC members need go to the Tea Parties to speak. Last time I checked there were 850 Tea Parties.