I have pointed out that 527's will be the X factor in this election. While the conventional wisdom is that the left, lead by George Soros, will dominate this sphere, I am of the opinion that Barack Obama is in a position to be hurt most by Conservative 527's. 527's can be unpredictable because they are many times so far to the extremes that they don't realize that their advertisements often turn off more people than they attract. That's because the attack is so vicious and dishonest that only the choir is impressed. Enter this advertisement by Moveon.org.
The blue print for successful 527's is the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Now, their advertisements were vicious and very personal but they also addressed issues the rest of the media did NOT. By challenging the narrative that John Kerry tried to create that he was a war hero and thus ready to lead, they were able to move the electorate in ways most 527's could not.
Here, Moveon.org is not only making a vicious attack but it is also rehashing an old charge that McCain wants to keep troops in a war zone for 100 years. Now, I assume that this mother has no problem if her son, Alex, gets stationed in say Europe or North Korea. Of course, this is the sort of long term presence that McCain is talking about. The Democrats themselves have already tried this dishonest attack and ultimately their dishonest attacks were confronted (mostly by the media on the right) and soon enough the attacks stopped. The last thing the Democrats need now is for the public to be reminded of this dishonest attack.
What made the SBVT different from all the other failed 527's is that they had credibility on the subject matter they focused on. The SBVT didn't attack Kerry on everything but rather just his military service. They were made up of Vietnam veterans themselves many of which served with Kerry. Furthermore, Kerry made his service more of an issue than he probably should have.
Moveon.org is NOT doing that at all. First, they are already famous for attacking General Petraeus in a dishonest way that blew up. This new ad is more of the same and it will likely have a similar effect. The sort of attack that Moveon.org is employing will likely help McCain more than it hurts him.
Please check out my new books, "Bullied to Death: Chris Mackney's Kafkaesque Divorce and Sandra Grazzini-Rucki and the World's Last Custody Trial"