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Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Morning Market Report

The budget and the deficit is in focus today. That's because the president will propose a spending freeze on all DISCRETIONARY spending. It's important to note that this discretionary spending is about 17% of the total budget and it's increased 24% since 2008. The total savings would be roughly $250 billion over the next ten years. So, how this actually works out remains to be seen.

Apple came out with outstanding earnings after the close yesterday. It's also announced that a new product that "will change the way books are read over the internet" is imminent. Apple is up 2%, mostly on the news.

Meanwhile, China announced new tightened banking restrictions.

Stocks bounced back Tuesday after a report showed consumer confidence rose for a
third straight month.

Stocks had opened lower as China weighed on the market after tightening bank-lending requirements.

This came after stocks snapped a three-day losing streak on Monday as worries about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's confirmation subsided and investors scooped up bargains.

Stocks are bouncing back again this morning as well. The Dow has crossed over 10200 and is up about 50 points an hour in. The ten year U.S. Treasury remains relatively stable. It's currently at 3.61%. That's just slightly better from yesterday and about even over the last three days. The yield spread between the two and ten year bond is now at 2.80% or just slightly tighter from yesterday. It's still pushing all time highs however. The three month t bill has gotten slightly worse this morning. It's trading at .061% or two basis points worse than the last week.

Crude oil is trading at $74.36 a barrel. That's almost a dollar off their close yesterday but about the same as this time yesterday. Gold is down just slightly. It's at $1093 an ounce. That's about $2 an ounce off the close yesterday.

We've got mirror images of each other in the Far East and Europe. The Hang Seng in China was down 2.37%, the NIKKEI in Japan was down 1.78%, and the Straits Time Index in Singapore was down 2.54%. In Europe, the FTSE in London was up .03%, the DAX in Germany was up .59%, and the Spanish index was up .95%.

The dollar is mixed this morning. It's up .68% against the Euro, up .56% against the British Pound but down .70% against the Japanese Yen.


AG said...

The Grandest Irony in Politics: it takes a Democrat to do what a Republican can't get elected to do: balance the budget and cut spending.

Looks like you might have won, Mike.

mike volpe said...

Where do you get this stuff? Our deficit was nearly $2 trillion last year. It's supposed to be $1.3 trillion this year. When exactly will there be a balanced budget with cuts?

AG said...

That's the point. ONLY Democrats have ever even come close to what it is you claim to desire: a balanced budget with cuts. You are no closer to a Republican President ready to do this than the Democrats are to getting single payer. Either because the Republican is too unelectably conservative, or they don't actually care about balancing the budget. Oh they'll enact cuts, but those cuts are more than offset by massive tax cuts and defense spending increases.

mike volpe said...

I'm not sure who these Democrats are but deficits only started under Reagan so we've only had one Democratic president and he accomplished it with a Republican congress. So, what exactly is your point. Revenues went up dramatically under Bush following his tax cuts.

Anonymous said...

Republican will not balance the budget because they don't have the guts to enact spending cuts.

Furthermore, they will lower taxes for the wealthy and middle class - DECREASING tax revenue over the long term.

Sorry Mike, the Laffar curve has been proven to be be bunk.

mike volpe said...

Good debate so far. I didn't say anything about the Laffer curve but under both Bush, Clinton, and Reagan, government revenues increased following tax cuts, so that is nonsense.

I can't speak for what the Republicans will or will not do. They aren't in power. All I said was that the spending freeze had all sorts of caveats.