Brown Has a Real Chance

A new poll actually has Scott Brown ahead of Martha Coakley in the special Senatorial election.

Republicans have a very real chance at orchestrating a Massachusetts miracle in this month’s special Senate election to determine Ted Kennedy’s successor, at least according to a new Democratic poll out tonight.

The shocking poll from Public Policy Polling shows Republican state senator Scott Brown leading Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley by one point, 48 to 47 percent, which would mean the race is effectively tied.

The most important part of this poll is its internals. Voters oppose health care reform 47-41. That's absolutely stunning and very important. First, if even in Massachusetts health care reform is a loser, then you know you have big problems.

It's important because Brown has made himself as the 41st vote against health care reform a central plank of his campaign. Now, it appears that's a message that has traction. Republicans are probably giddy and they should be. After the primaries, the general election was supposed to be an afterthought. Most reports didn't even mention Brown. Now, in the bluest of Blue states, a Republican has a chance of pulling off a stunning upset. Furthermore, if he does, health care reform, in its current form, is dead.

For the president, this is a total nightmare. The way he's managed health care reform has made the partisanship only that much more bitter and with Brown, he'll have to get at least one Republican vote to pass anything. He's show a total lack of ability to do just that. This is fast becoming the biggest political story of the moment.