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Sunday, January 17, 2010

Ben Nelson in the Crosshairs

A Democrat representing Nebraska is always dicey. Ben Nelson is finding out just how dicey that is following his vote in favor of health care reform.

In the survey, Nelson's job approval rating was 42 percent and his disapproval rating was 48 percent. By comparison, Republican Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska, who voted against the bill, had a 63 percent job-approval rating.

Nelson has been under fire since he supplied the 60th vote to win approval for President Barack Obama's principal domestic policy initiative in the Senate. He was called a “sellout” at a political rally.

If my prognastication about Scott Brown is correct, watch for Ben Nelson to head the line of Democrats who will have changed their minds about supporting health care reform. Nelson knows he's in big trouble. He also knows he's gone from fairly well liked to disliked in the span of a month and it's due entirely to his support of health care reform, and his backroom deal to get that support.

No matter what President Obama and the Democratic leadership say, any Democrat that now switches their votes and comes out against this bill will be viewed as a hero. They will keep their political lives going. Frankly, the Democrats will be better off as well if this health care package dies. The leadership will be replaced and they can reorganize around a better agenda.

If they were to pass health care reform, every single member of their party will see their approval ratings where Ben Nelson sees them.

6 comments:

Gil said...

In your latest article you said:"If my prognastication about Scott Brown is correct, watch for Ben Nelson to head the line of Democrats who will have changed their minds about supporting health care reform."

Which prognostication are you referring to? Would like to read it.

Payablesmg.com said...

Is this what you meant? Just found it:"It's pretty clear where this race is headed. The latest poll has Scott Brown up by 3, and three of the last five polls in the RCP average have Brown up.
With forty eight hours to go, Brown has the momentum and the wind at his back, and I believe he won't merely win but win going away."

mike volpe said...

It's the prognastication about Brown winning of course.

Payablesmg.com said...

Good stuff. Winning by 8-10 points.

AG said...

Frankly, I don't buy it. The Republicans are out for blood, and since your average conservative believes anyone to the left of Ronald Reagan is a communist terrorist, there's no doubt in my mind that Nelson is toast no matter what he does. All one has to look at is Parker Griffith.

mike volpe said...

Nelson's been elected. I'm not sure what your point is. Nebraska isn't only Republicans. If he backs out of the health care deal, he will be viewed as hero, not necessarily by Republicans, but by the voters of his state.