Republicans should feel very comfortable about the race in the special election in Massachusetts, and here's why. In about a week, it has gone from barely a story to a major national media story. The whole thing started with nothing more mundane than a poll. About a week ago, news of a Rasmussen poll came out. That poll had Scott Brown nine points which became huge news since this race was supposed to not even be close.
From there, what we've seen is a steady momentum of news about this race since. Scott Brown was suddenly being interviewed by national programs like Real Clear Politics and Greta Van Susteren. Then, conservative activists began to get excited. In the last week, Scott Brown has become a hero of the tea party movement. They've sent all sorts of volunteers to Massachusetts to help get the vote out.
I won't pretend to know the dynamics of Massachusetts politics but this phenomenon is pretty familiar. The race for the Senate seat is now a national story. The story is "Can Brown Pull off a Miracle". That means the story is all about Scott Brown and not his opponent, Martha Coakley. So, what will happen is that Scott Brown will now get hours upon hours of free media attention from cable news.
Meanwhile, it is Brown with the message that works. That message is that he's the 41st vote against Obamacare. In the latest poll, the internals showed that the people of Massachusetts disapproved of the health care bill by 47-41. Most importantly, all the excitement and intensity is on the side of the Republicans not the Democrats. So, the more coverage that this receives the more it will energize Republicans not Democrats.
Now, what's most interesting is what will happen of the Obama presidency if Brown is elected. First, Obamacare, in its current form, will be dead. He could pass something but something totally different than what's on the table. With Obamacare dead, the Democrats are facing a midterm election in which they will be running on massive deficits, massive unemployment and absolutely no legislative accomplishments despite having overwhelming majorities in both chambers.
So, the word bloodbath comes to mind. At that point, President Obama will have to make a Bill Clinton type pivot. Clinton proved to have superior political acumen. Obama has shown none of that. If he doesn't, he won't merely be a one term president but a disaster.
Meanwhile, if Obama is a disaster for the next three years, that puts our defenses in jeopardy. We live in a dangerous time and we may be a week away from having a president that's dangerously close to being totally politically impotent.
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2 comments:
Conversely, the poll oversampled Massachusetts residents who oppose health care, and Brown's numbers were boosted accordingly.
"I won't pretend to know the dynamics of Massachusetts politics but"
When you make a statement like that, it means you're about to pretend to know the dynamics of Massachusetts politics.
You'd have some credibility if following that statement I talked about Massachusetts politics. Instead, I talked about the media, the tea parties, and his message. So, I'm not sure what you're trying to say.
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