Republicans are fired up and ready to go, and that's producing some surprising election results, including the possible defeat of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, who would be the third sitting U.S. Senator ousted by their own party this year.
The Alaska story, though, could shape up to be the most interesting. Miller leads Murkowski, a second-generation senator, by three percent. But the results are still trickling in - more than 15 percent of the ballots have not been counted, including the many absentee ballots from Alaskans who work, serve or attend school elsewhere. If Murkowski goes down it will be the biggest pelt yet for Sarah Palin's hunting party. She backed Miller (as did the Tea Party Express with a late $500,000 ad buy) and can claim lots of credit for his success. If Miller prevails, he should have a clear shot at the Senate against Democratic nominee, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams. Miller is a conservative, West Point graduate, Yale-educated lawyer and former judge. While Alaskans overall may have some reservations about Palin after she abruptly left the governorship, this should be a very Republican year in a very Republican state.
Showing posts with label scott brown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scott brown. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Miller Wins in Alaska
Joe Miller appears to be squeezing out a narrow victory in Alaska.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Financial Reform Back on the Brink
Only a couple days after announcing a big breakthrough on financial reform, the same package may be back on the brink. First, Senator Feingold announced that he would vote against the measure.
Hours later, Senator Scott Brown announced the same.
This only leaves four undecided Senators: Grassley of Iowa, Snowe and Collins of Maine and Senator Cantwell of Washington. All would have to vote for the measure for it to get sixty votes.
In case you haven't caught this bombshell yet, Senator Feingold announced that he won't support the FinReg bill as negotiated. This means the bill needs to go back to square one unless there's a Republican defector in the next day or two, which is extremely unlikely.
Hours later, Senator Scott Brown announced the same.
I am writing you to express my strong opposition to the $19 billion bank tax that was included in the financial reform bill during the conference committee," wrote Brown. "This tax was not in the Senate version of the bill, which I supported. If the final version of this bill contains these higher taxes, I will not support it."
This only leaves four undecided Senators: Grassley of Iowa, Snowe and Collins of Maine and Senator Cantwell of Washington. All would have to vote for the measure for it to get sixty votes.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Obama on the Brink
This Wednesday, the President will make the most important political speech of his life when he delivers his first State of the Union. It was supposed to celebrate the newly minted health care reform bill. Instead, he must explain his way forward following a stunning and humiliating defeat in Massachusetts. Make no mistake, we're only a year in and the President is already on the brink of collapse. At the same time, three years is a very long time and the President has plenty of time to turn things around.
I've been loathe to write much about Scott Brown's victory in its aftermath. That's because I was almost 100% correct about its implications in my predictions. It was a political tsunami. Health care reform, in anything near its current form, is dead. The president and the Democrats are in real trouble. The tea parties are huge winners and the biggest winner of all is Scott Brown himself.
The key going forward is if and when the President realizes that this election in Massachusetts was a massive repudiation of his liberal agenda. If Democrats lose in Massachusetts, you know the country despises your policies. So far at least, it appears that time has not arrived. The President and his allies have blamed almost everything, George Bush included, but their own policies. If that attitude continues, the SOTU will be a massive dud.
The President is trying to take on a populist tone. He wants to side himself with the people against the banks, insurance companies, and big business. That would work if that was the populist revolt. The current populist revolt, however, is against the D.C. policies. So, if the President promises in his SOTU speech to move forward with health care reform, he'll miss a very real opportunity to right the ship. It appears that's where the President is still headed.
Make no mistake. The Massachusetts election was a repudiation of the health care bill in its entirety. It wasn't merely the backroom deal. It wasn't merely the massive price tag. It wasn't merely the fact that it's a massive government expansion. It was all that and more. The Massachusetts vote, more than anything, was a message to moderate.
The President will accomplish nothing, go down among the worst Presidents every, and be a one termer if he insists on liberal policies. You'd think that preserving his legacy and his presidency would be most important. Yet, it appears that pushing his ideology is more important right now.
If the President surprises us all and delivers a manifesto to moderate on Wednesday, it will be the beginning of his moderate presidency. Such a presidency will see health care reform, energy reform, financial reform, education reform, and it will cut the federal budget. It will make him a wildly successful president. If he insists on moving forward as a liberal, he will continue to waste precious time stuck in a stance that accomplishes nothing and leads him one step closer to infamy.
I've been loathe to write much about Scott Brown's victory in its aftermath. That's because I was almost 100% correct about its implications in my predictions. It was a political tsunami. Health care reform, in anything near its current form, is dead. The president and the Democrats are in real trouble. The tea parties are huge winners and the biggest winner of all is Scott Brown himself.
The key going forward is if and when the President realizes that this election in Massachusetts was a massive repudiation of his liberal agenda. If Democrats lose in Massachusetts, you know the country despises your policies. So far at least, it appears that time has not arrived. The President and his allies have blamed almost everything, George Bush included, but their own policies. If that attitude continues, the SOTU will be a massive dud.
The President is trying to take on a populist tone. He wants to side himself with the people against the banks, insurance companies, and big business. That would work if that was the populist revolt. The current populist revolt, however, is against the D.C. policies. So, if the President promises in his SOTU speech to move forward with health care reform, he'll miss a very real opportunity to right the ship. It appears that's where the President is still headed.
Make no mistake. The Massachusetts election was a repudiation of the health care bill in its entirety. It wasn't merely the backroom deal. It wasn't merely the massive price tag. It wasn't merely the fact that it's a massive government expansion. It was all that and more. The Massachusetts vote, more than anything, was a message to moderate.
The President will accomplish nothing, go down among the worst Presidents every, and be a one termer if he insists on liberal policies. You'd think that preserving his legacy and his presidency would be most important. Yet, it appears that pushing his ideology is more important right now.
If the President surprises us all and delivers a manifesto to moderate on Wednesday, it will be the beginning of his moderate presidency. Such a presidency will see health care reform, energy reform, financial reform, education reform, and it will cut the federal budget. It will make him a wildly successful president. If he insists on moving forward as a liberal, he will continue to waste precious time stuck in a stance that accomplishes nothing and leads him one step closer to infamy.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
The Political Tsunami Is Here
There's nearly 70% of the vote counted and Scott Brown is ahead by seven points. Because Massachusetts had no exit polls, I don't know when there will be an official call. So, I will make mine. Scott Brown is the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts.
The first thing that everyone should know is that the Democratic party is beginning to eat its own. Everyone within the Democratic party is pointing a finger at each other.
There is absolute chaos in the Democratic party. With chaos, that means nothing gets done. They can say what they want but if the Coakley campaign is blaming Obama and the national party. The national party is blaming the Coakley campaign. Nancy Pelosi is saying she's not out of touch.
So, while the Democrats begin the long and painful process of finger pointing, there won't be much time for health care reform. With Brown as the 41st vote, the Democrats won't be able to get this bill through the Senate. The only way to do this would be for the House to vote for the Senate's bill. That won't happen because Bart Stupak isn't happy with the abortion language. That's only the first problem.
The Democrats can talk about all the legislative tricks: reconciliation, voting before seating Brown, etc. but not only would that be political suicide but it won't happen.
Obama's liberal agenda has officially come to an end. From here, the president can decide what he wants to do with his presidency. If he wants to continue to ram through liberal and far left policies, he'll be, by far, the worst president we've ever had. He'll get nothing done. He'll leave an economy in shambles, a homeland vulnerable, and the world very dangerous.
On the other hand, he can take these results as a message. What happens going forward is entirely in his hands. Bill Clinton showed that stunning defeats can turn into political victories in the future. Obama's liberal agenda has been dying a slow and painful death since the summer. It's now officially dead. We'll see what the president does in its aftermath.
The first thing that everyone should know is that the Democratic party is beginning to eat its own. Everyone within the Democratic party is pointing a finger at each other.
The Democratic Party collapsed into a circular firing squad while waiting for election returns from Massachusetts Tuesday, with everyone from Martha Coakley's pollster to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi taking shots at other Democrats.
The not-so-implicit premise: Democrats will lose the seat Ted Kennedy held for more than four decades.
While Democratic Senate insiders and some White House officials are blaming their own party’s nominee for a lackluster campaign that let Republican Scott Brown frame the race, Pelosi suggested Tuesday that her Senate counterparts shared part of the blame.
"We're always in touch with our members," Pelosi said at an afternoon press conference. "In the House, we don't have surprises when it comes to elections."
There is absolute chaos in the Democratic party. With chaos, that means nothing gets done. They can say what they want but if the Coakley campaign is blaming Obama and the national party. The national party is blaming the Coakley campaign. Nancy Pelosi is saying she's not out of touch.
So, while the Democrats begin the long and painful process of finger pointing, there won't be much time for health care reform. With Brown as the 41st vote, the Democrats won't be able to get this bill through the Senate. The only way to do this would be for the House to vote for the Senate's bill. That won't happen because Bart Stupak isn't happy with the abortion language. That's only the first problem.
The Democrats can talk about all the legislative tricks: reconciliation, voting before seating Brown, etc. but not only would that be political suicide but it won't happen.
Obama's liberal agenda has officially come to an end. From here, the president can decide what he wants to do with his presidency. If he wants to continue to ram through liberal and far left policies, he'll be, by far, the worst president we've ever had. He'll get nothing done. He'll leave an economy in shambles, a homeland vulnerable, and the world very dangerous.
On the other hand, he can take these results as a message. What happens going forward is entirely in his hands. Bill Clinton showed that stunning defeats can turn into political victories in the future. Obama's liberal agenda has been dying a slow and painful death since the summer. It's now officially dead. We'll see what the president does in its aftermath.
Monday, January 18, 2010
There's No Saving Health Care Reform Now
We may all be getting ahead of ourselves. Scott Brown appears to be cruising and if all indications are correct, he'll win going away tomorrow. If he does, there's no saving health care reform. Newsmax has a story about some of the legislative maeuvers the Democrats might try.
None of them will work. Health care is dead if Scott Brown wins tomorrow. Trying to convince the House to accept the Senate's bill is a non starter. Bart Stupak was very clear in the language he wanted regarding abortion. The Senate has no such language.
Beyond that though, this vote is a clear rejection of this package. That's what Brown has been running on. The Democrats aren't that stupid. The leadership may in fact want to throw the party over a cliff to pass health care reform. There are some rank and file that would like to continue to have a job.
Trying to pass health care reform through reconciliation is nearly impossible. It's a legislative trick so complicated that most of Congress itself doesn't understand it. They may in fact get fifty votes in the Senate but that bill would never get the necessary votes in the House.
The simple fact is this. Scott Brown's election in the bluest of blue states is a monumental rejection of the Obama agenda. Chief on top of that agenda is health care reform. The leadership may in fact convince some of the rank and file that reality is really not reality, but they won't convince all.
There's talk that the Democrats will delay in seating Brown in order to have the current occupant, Paul Kirk, vote on health care reform. They can try but it will make them even less popular. In the meantime, it will only take one Democrat to switch. I firmly believe there is one Democrat in the Senate that likes their job more than they like this bill.
A panicky White House and Democratic allies scrambled Sunday for a plan to salvage their hard-fought healthcare package in case a Republican wins the Senate race Tuesday in Massachusetts, which would enable the GOP to block further Senate action.
The most likely scenario would require persuading House Democrats to accept a bill the Senate passed last month, despite their objections to several parts.
Aides worked frantically Sunday amid fears that Republican Scott Brown will defeat Democrat Martha Coakley in the special election to fill the late Edward M. Kennedy's seat. A Brown win would give the GOP 41 Senate votes, enough to filibuster and block final passage of the House-Senate compromise on health care now being crafted.
None of them will work. Health care is dead if Scott Brown wins tomorrow. Trying to convince the House to accept the Senate's bill is a non starter. Bart Stupak was very clear in the language he wanted regarding abortion. The Senate has no such language.
Beyond that though, this vote is a clear rejection of this package. That's what Brown has been running on. The Democrats aren't that stupid. The leadership may in fact want to throw the party over a cliff to pass health care reform. There are some rank and file that would like to continue to have a job.
Trying to pass health care reform through reconciliation is nearly impossible. It's a legislative trick so complicated that most of Congress itself doesn't understand it. They may in fact get fifty votes in the Senate but that bill would never get the necessary votes in the House.
The simple fact is this. Scott Brown's election in the bluest of blue states is a monumental rejection of the Obama agenda. Chief on top of that agenda is health care reform. The leadership may in fact convince some of the rank and file that reality is really not reality, but they won't convince all.
There's talk that the Democrats will delay in seating Brown in order to have the current occupant, Paul Kirk, vote on health care reform. They can try but it will make them even less popular. In the meantime, it will only take one Democrat to switch. I firmly believe there is one Democrat in the Senate that likes their job more than they like this bill.
Brown V Coakley: 24 Hours (Updated)
Conservatives are running wild with this story first broken by CNN.
The dynamics of the race haven't changed. I'm still getting emails from every Tea Party related group on the planet about this race. Here's an example.
If you live outside of the area: There are two ways you can help that will make a dramatic impact on turning out the vote for Scott Brown.
FIRST: The most valuable way to help is to contact all of your friends, family members or acquaintances who you think or know are supporting Scott Brown. Or willing to hear you out. Contact them via email, Twitter, phone call, Facebook or carrier pigeon.
The president spoke on behalf of Coakley yesterday and so her campaign got some much needed media attention. This morning both were at an event marking Martin Luther King's birthday.
Brown didn't speak and then criticized Coakley for "politicking" at this event. The dynamics remain the same and so I am still predicting that Brown wins going away.
UPDATE:
H/T to Watchdog.org. Here's a video of a phone bank for Martha Coakley. The number of people, ZERO, tells the tale.
Multiple advisers to President Obama have privately told party officials that they believe Democrat Martha Coakley is going to lose Tuesday’s special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat held by the late Ted Kennedy for more than 40 years, several Democratic sources told CNN Sunday.
The dynamics of the race haven't changed. I'm still getting emails from every Tea Party related group on the planet about this race. Here's an example.
If you live outside of the area: There are two ways you can help that will make a dramatic impact on turning out the vote for Scott Brown.
FIRST: The most valuable way to help is to contact all of your friends, family members or acquaintances who you think or know are supporting Scott Brown. Or willing to hear you out. Contact them via email, Twitter, phone call, Facebook or carrier pigeon.
The president spoke on behalf of Coakley yesterday and so her campaign got some much needed media attention. This morning both were at an event marking Martin Luther King's birthday.
With more than 1,000 people in attendance at the Hynes Convention Center, Coakley entered the room to a light smattering of applause and took her place at the head table. Brown arrived a bit later and quietly took his seat at a table on the main floor.
A bit later, the two candidates took the opportunity to do some 11th-hour politicking, glad-handing attendees and posing for pictures. Coakley went from table to table through a sea of television cameras and promised to "work the vote" until the last minute.
"We're going to see this through," she told one guest.
Brown didn't speak and then criticized Coakley for "politicking" at this event. The dynamics remain the same and so I am still predicting that Brown wins going away.
UPDATE:
H/T to Watchdog.org. Here's a video of a phone bank for Martha Coakley. The number of people, ZERO, tells the tale.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Coakley V Brown: 48 Hours Left
H/T to my blogging cohort Gerard Vanderleun at the American Digest for this article. This article, from a liberal blogger in Massachusetts, says all you need to know about this race.
That article is really a pep talk for all the dejected and disgruntled Massachusetts liberals who aren't all that excited about Tuesday. The blogger is hoping they see the bigger picture.
I remember articles just like this by Conservative pundits in both 2006 and 2008 saying the same thing to conservatives. These sorts of pep talks only happen when the leadership knows that the rank and file aren't all that excited.
That's as clear as you will get that all the energy, excitement and momentum is with Scott Brown in this race with 48 hours to go. Coakley continues to make gaffes, meanwhile. The latest is less serious though not knowing that Curt Schilling was a Red Sox hero is a major no no.
Let's get this out of the way. You might not want to vote for Martha Coakley. You might think she deserves what's she's getting after an absentee, self-satisfied campaign (why should I bail her out?). You likely want to send a message to everyone from the attorney general all the way to every Democratic official in Washington, DC. Odds are you didn't vote for her in the primary. And, you might be wondering if it'll make a difference who wins this Tuesday.
You got every reason to be pissed, but it needs to be clear: not voting for Coakley is the same as voting for Brown. And voting for Brown is a very, very bad thing.
sabutai :: Yes it sucks. Yes you have to vote Coakley.
That article is really a pep talk for all the dejected and disgruntled Massachusetts liberals who aren't all that excited about Tuesday. The blogger is hoping they see the bigger picture.
I remember articles just like this by Conservative pundits in both 2006 and 2008 saying the same thing to conservatives. These sorts of pep talks only happen when the leadership knows that the rank and file aren't all that excited.
That's as clear as you will get that all the energy, excitement and momentum is with Scott Brown in this race with 48 hours to go. Coakley continues to make gaffes, meanwhile. The latest is less serious though not knowing that Curt Schilling was a Red Sox hero is a major no no.
Rea: But Scott Brown has Curt Schilling.
Coakley: Another Yankee fan.
Rea: Schilling?
Coakley: Yes.
Rea: Curt Schilling a Yankee fan??
Coakley: No.
Rea: Curt Schilling a Yankee fan? TheRed Sox great pitcher of the bloody sock?
Coakley: Well, he's not there anymore.
Now, I doubt that anyone will have their vote hinge on whether or not Martha Coakley knows Curt Schilling's history as a Red Sock. What this does do is put this gaffe into the media cycle.
There's a much more serious, and slimy, gaffe in this attack ad. This photo, first reported by Greg Sargent, is an allusion to Scott Brown voting against a law to let emergency hospitals turn away rape victims in need of emergency contraception. That's downright nasty. 
All these gaffes combine to take Martha Coakley off message. That would be more of a problem if Coakley had a message. Right now, it's not very clear why she's running for the U.S. Senate except to benefit herself.
Meanwhile, Scott Brown sticks to his two talking: "I'm the 41st vote against health care" and "this isn't Ted Kennedy's seat but the people's seat".
It's pretty clear where this race is headed. The latest poll has Scott Brown up by 3, and three of the last five polls in the RCP average have Brown up.
With forty eight hours to go, Brown has the momentum and the wind at his back, and I believe he won't merely win but win going away.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Momentum With Brown
Republicans should feel very comfortable about the race in the special election in Massachusetts, and here's why. In about a week, it has gone from barely a story to a major national media story. The whole thing started with nothing more mundane than a poll. About a week ago, news of a Rasmussen poll came out. That poll had Scott Brown nine points which became huge news since this race was supposed to not even be close.
From there, what we've seen is a steady momentum of news about this race since. Scott Brown was suddenly being interviewed by national programs like Real Clear Politics and Greta Van Susteren. Then, conservative activists began to get excited. In the last week, Scott Brown has become a hero of the tea party movement. They've sent all sorts of volunteers to Massachusetts to help get the vote out.
I won't pretend to know the dynamics of Massachusetts politics but this phenomenon is pretty familiar. The race for the Senate seat is now a national story. The story is "Can Brown Pull off a Miracle". That means the story is all about Scott Brown and not his opponent, Martha Coakley. So, what will happen is that Scott Brown will now get hours upon hours of free media attention from cable news.
Meanwhile, it is Brown with the message that works. That message is that he's the 41st vote against Obamacare. In the latest poll, the internals showed that the people of Massachusetts disapproved of the health care bill by 47-41. Most importantly, all the excitement and intensity is on the side of the Republicans not the Democrats. So, the more coverage that this receives the more it will energize Republicans not Democrats.
Now, what's most interesting is what will happen of the Obama presidency if Brown is elected. First, Obamacare, in its current form, will be dead. He could pass something but something totally different than what's on the table. With Obamacare dead, the Democrats are facing a midterm election in which they will be running on massive deficits, massive unemployment and absolutely no legislative accomplishments despite having overwhelming majorities in both chambers.
So, the word bloodbath comes to mind. At that point, President Obama will have to make a Bill Clinton type pivot. Clinton proved to have superior political acumen. Obama has shown none of that. If he doesn't, he won't merely be a one term president but a disaster.
Meanwhile, if Obama is a disaster for the next three years, that puts our defenses in jeopardy. We live in a dangerous time and we may be a week away from having a president that's dangerously close to being totally politically impotent.
From there, what we've seen is a steady momentum of news about this race since. Scott Brown was suddenly being interviewed by national programs like Real Clear Politics and Greta Van Susteren. Then, conservative activists began to get excited. In the last week, Scott Brown has become a hero of the tea party movement. They've sent all sorts of volunteers to Massachusetts to help get the vote out.
I won't pretend to know the dynamics of Massachusetts politics but this phenomenon is pretty familiar. The race for the Senate seat is now a national story. The story is "Can Brown Pull off a Miracle". That means the story is all about Scott Brown and not his opponent, Martha Coakley. So, what will happen is that Scott Brown will now get hours upon hours of free media attention from cable news.
Meanwhile, it is Brown with the message that works. That message is that he's the 41st vote against Obamacare. In the latest poll, the internals showed that the people of Massachusetts disapproved of the health care bill by 47-41. Most importantly, all the excitement and intensity is on the side of the Republicans not the Democrats. So, the more coverage that this receives the more it will energize Republicans not Democrats.
Now, what's most interesting is what will happen of the Obama presidency if Brown is elected. First, Obamacare, in its current form, will be dead. He could pass something but something totally different than what's on the table. With Obamacare dead, the Democrats are facing a midterm election in which they will be running on massive deficits, massive unemployment and absolutely no legislative accomplishments despite having overwhelming majorities in both chambers.
So, the word bloodbath comes to mind. At that point, President Obama will have to make a Bill Clinton type pivot. Clinton proved to have superior political acumen. Obama has shown none of that. If he doesn't, he won't merely be a one term president but a disaster.
Meanwhile, if Obama is a disaster for the next three years, that puts our defenses in jeopardy. We live in a dangerous time and we may be a week away from having a president that's dangerously close to being totally politically impotent.
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