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Thursday, August 14, 2008

When Tyrants Attack

Watching things unfold in Georgia, I am reminded of the last scene in Animal House when Kevin Bacon's is screaming for everyone to remain calm, while the crowd stampedes over him. That is the level of futility by the current round of diplomacy, strong words and negotiations in the face of Russia's aggression.

Here is what Condi Rice said the other day.

This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. “Things have changed

Here is what President Bush had to say.

I'm sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to France, where she will confer with President Sarkozy. She will then travel to Tbilisi, where she will personally convey America's unwavering support for Georgia's democratic government.

We expect Russia to meet its commitment to cease all military activities in Georgia, and we expect all Russian forces that entered Georgia in recent days to withdraw from that country.

Here are John McCain's now famous words.

The Georgian people have suffered before, and they suffer today. We must help them through this tragedy, and they should know that the thoughts, prayers and support of the American people are with them. This small democracy, far away from our shores, is an inspiration to all those who cherish our deepest ideals. As I told President Saakashvili on the day the cease-fire was declared, today we are all Georgians. We mustn't forget it.

Here is how Barack Obama put it the other day.

No matter how this conflict started, Russia has escalated it well beyond the dispute over South Ossetia and invaded another country. Russia has escalated its military campaign through strategic bombing and the movement of its ground forces into the heart of Georgia. There is no possible justification for these attacks.

The United States, Europe and all other concerned countries must stand united in condemning this aggression, and seeking a peaceful resolution to this crisis. We should continue to push for a United Nations Security Council Resolution calling for an immediate end to the violence. This is a clear violation of the sovereignty and internationally recognized borders of Georgia - the UN must stand up for the sovereignty of its members, and peace in the world.


Meanwhile, the EU has negotiated not one but two cease fires to end the war. Nearly the whole world has taken turns in condemning the action and called on Russia to stand down. While all of this was going on Russia proceeded to enter Georgian territory, take control of the Province of Ossetia, then move forward and cut the country in half, and now their military is on the brink of the capital, Tblisi.

So, while the world stands in near unanimous verbal condemnation, the Russian military is showing the world just how futile their verbal attacks are. The reality is that if tyrants really want a war, then unfortunately, the world is left with no other choice. One would have thought we learned this lesson with Hitler, but apparently we are going to need another refresher course.

There are those that say the U.S. is in no position to respond. They deviously blame our position in Iraq for a lack of military personnel. Of course, the U.S. still maintains bases throughout Europe and they were installed during the Cold War exactly to deter such a threat. The bottom line is that the world doesn't have the will to stand up to Putin. That's why all we have mustered are strongly worded WORDS of condemnation. In the face of a full frontal military assaut though, strongly worded statements of condemnation are totally useless. Vladimir Putin wants war and he knows the rest of the world desperately wants to avoid one. Unfortunately, when tyrants attack, the only good response is to attack back and much harder. Anything less only makes them stronger.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let's look at the facts:
Georgia attacks a city with artillery and multiple rocket launchers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM-21
Then lots of Georgian tanks move in the region and reportedly kill civilians and run over people who are trying to escape.

Now, let's imagine that it is not 500 russian peacekeepers are stationed there but 500 american soldiers and 90% of the civilian population of that city (around 50000) hold US citizenship and at least 1000 civilians and 20 soldiers are already dead as a result of the attack.
Let's just hypothetically assume that while all this happening, United States would go to UN to quickly get a resolution that would condemn the violence and some kind of action to stop the conflict. And after hours of delibirations by diplomats in UN nothing gets done at all, while more civilians killed.

The interesting questions to answer for yourself in this hypothetical situation.
1. Would there be any military action by the United States against the Georgia?
2. Would it matter if Georgia is a democratic country or not?
3. How proportional the american response would be?
4. Would any country support Georgia?

My answers to these questions are:
1. You bet. Current administration wouldn't even bother going to UN. The response would be quick and powerful.
2. Nobody gives a damn whether you are democracy or not if you commit these atrocities.
3. I doubt there be any buildings standing in Georgia if it would kill over 1000 americans.
4. Not only nobody would support them, I doubt that anybody would even give them any humanitarian aid at all.


So why is it any different if we are talking about Russia it is bad aggressor but if it is US it is a victim that has all rights to protect itself?

mike volpe said...

First of all, that is a distortion of the facts, and second of all, whatever Russia's interests in Georgia, they stopped in Ossetia. Once they went into other parts of the country they were no longer merely protecting their peace keepers.

Now then, Georgia didn't attack a "city" as you claim. They attacked paramilitary stationed in that city. These paramilitary fought outside the control of the government. They had no legal standing to be in the city. Again, mostly, this is an internal civil war matter. What Russia did was insert itself into an internal civil war. It is one thing for Russia to send in troops to protect its peacekeepers. That wouldn't have taken the full weight of their military though. Yet, that's what they sent in.

I only wish the UN peacekeepers were as aggressive as the Russians when Hezbollah began attacking Israel.

The Russians didn't enter the sovereign territory of Georgia merely to protect their peacekeepers. If that were the case, they would have been out of Georgia with their peacekeepers long ago.

I don't know how to respond to your comparison because frankly the U.S. has no peacekeepers anywhere where there is a rogue paramilitary group. That said, if the Italian military began a military operation in a part of Italy that had U.S. personnel you can be sure that the U.S. wouldn't invade and occupy Italy as a result of it.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone notice that Obama's statements are ALL about the UN and how the UN needs to stand up for Georgia? The UN is incapable of addressing this situation because Russia has a veto on the Security Council.

This is a NATO and an EU issue and the diplomacy, sanctions, and possible use of force would come from those bodies. It's disturbing how much the Obama foreign policy team keeps relying on the UN. Richardson is a former UN ambassador and even he keeps parroting the UN Security Council resolution line. If we veto resolutions about Israel, do you think for a minute that Russia is going to allow a vote condeming their own actions?? Please!!

This is an example of why America must be a leader in foreign policy, much like an officer in the military. We lead and those on our side will follow. We do not need to talk to all nations. We need to put Russia in its place and let them know this will not be tolerated. Get together a NATO peacekeeping force chalk full of Americans, Germans, Poles, and British and stick in the middle of this fight. Lets see if Russia really wants to go war with the Western world.

mike volpe said...

I have noticed that. I think that Obama needs to explain that statement much more fully. Going to the UN is nothing short of a measure to embarrass the Russians. If he thinks that forcing Russia to veto any sanctions against it will do anything of substance he is naive.

That said, that is more of a political issue. There will be plenty of time to analyze the political effects of this war. I think it is better to focus on what should be done moving forward.

In a perfect world, this is the job for NATO. Unfortunately, I don't see the members of NATO having the will to stand up to Putin.