Voters head to the polls today in Florida's 19th congressional district to pick a replacement for former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), who resigned in January to lead a Middle East think tank.
Ted Deutch (D), who has Wexler's endorsement and is favored, faces Ed Lynch (R).
The AP notes Lynch hopes to make the election a referendum on President Obama's health care reform bill "in a district where seniors make up about 40 percent of the electorate. Lynch says they're dissatisfied with the bill, but Deutch says it brings immediate relief."
This election has received scant attention. Most expect this heavily liberal district to go Democrat. So, there's two ways to look at this. First, if Republicans lose, as most expect, we could say that Republican's momentum has stopped. On the other hand, if the Republican wins more than 40%, we could say that the Republican was way above expectations.
2 comments:
Realistically, I believe the most effective baseline would be Wexler's first election in 1996, when he won 65.6% - 34.4%. This most accurately reflects the fact that the Democrat running to replace him is not an incumbent.
Another baseline would be the number of votes that Ed Lynch received in 2008 when he last ran against Wexler: he received 83,357 votes, or 27.2% of the total.
AP just called it for Deutch. The projections are for a 61-36 win over Ed Lynch.
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