Everyone can do the math, the Republicans would need to win 10 seats in November. That would mean we'd be facing a landslide election. Everyone agrees the winds are at the sails of the Republicans. So, that part is there.
Still, ten seats is quite an undertaking. So, here's the states the Republicans will need to win to do it. First, they're ahead and comfortable in Arkansas, Nevada, Illinois, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. There's a toss up in New York. Finally, Tommy Thompson will need to get in the race in Wisconsin and that state becomes a toss up against Russ Feingold. In Washington and California, Republicans are trailing but within shouting distance. So, that's ten.
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If New York, California, and Wisconsin are still needed I don't see it happening. For one thing I don't see Thompson running. There's no doubt that California is home to some of the most conservative Republicans in America, but its also home to some of the most liberal of Democrats, and there's more of them than there are of Republicans.
As for New York, the Post pushed the idea that he was vulnerable in 2004, too. And he won the largest percentage of the vote ever. And that was when his potential opponent didn't have the history of drug abuse that Kudlow has. I imagine his coattails will help Gilibrand, even if Pataki runs. As for Harold Ford, the man is a clown. He represents everything people hate about conservative Democrats.
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