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Monday, February 22, 2010

Iran, Russia, and Garry Kasparov

Garry Kasparov has a theory about Vladimir Putin that I have repeated on numerous occasions. I will repeat it again. Putin does everything with an eye toward artificially making oil prices as high as possible. At the same time, he also makes sure that he creates a situation he can control.

That would explain Russia's insistence on protecting Iran from sanctions as they build up their nuclear capabilities. The threat of a nuclear Iran increases the price of oil. At the same time, if Iran were nuclear, that would also be a situation that Russia could no longer control. That might explain Russia's more aggressive tone.

Iran should improve its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's spokeswoman says.

"On the subject of sanctions, Russia's position remains unchanged. Russia still believes that Iran should more actively and broadly cooperate with the IAEA and other countries," spokeswoman Natalia Timakova told reporters on Tuesday.

"If these obligations are not fulfilled, no one can exclude the application of sanctions," AFP quoted Timakova as saying.

Russia has made such threats before. They've never followed through when push came to shove. Still, no one understands Vladimir Putin better than Garry Kasparov. If Kasparov is right, a nuclear Iran is not in Russia's interest. As such, if you follow Kasparov's theory, they will stop Iran from getting a nuke before it is too late. Such a move would serve all their purposes and be very shrewd as it would also mean they'd have that much more geopolitical leverage as well.


AG said...

They'll probably be more effective than we have too. After all, Iran is fairly reliant upon them technologically. That, and they're not trying to overthrow their government.

Anonymous said...

There are a couple of factors that might make Russia more willing to allow Iran to become a nuclear-armed nation:

- good relations with Iran gives land-locked Russia access to the seas.
- making Iran a regional superpower and foisting the 'Shia Crescent' upon the Middle East would further destabilize the region and drive up oil costs.
- it would create an arms race in the ME, which Russia could capitalize upon, as well as diminishing the perceived value of America's 'nuclear umbrella'.

Iran's nuclear armament would in no way threaten Russia or its interests. For that matter, Iran putting a nuke in the hands of radicals intent on setting it off on U.S. soil would be a distinct boon to Russia's attempts at regaining their superpower status. Indeed, the threat of nuclear terror, and terrorism in general, has caused the U.S. to so focus its resources that it has been unable and unwilling to address Russia's ambitions in Georgia or the Ukraine. Similarly, China is edging ever closer to retaking Taiwan, because America is less able to project (the perception of) force into that region, due to our concentration on conflicts in the Middle East.

Russia would not cry any sincere tears over a mushroom cloud appearing in a U.S. city. Especially if they aren't the ones who can be blamed for it.

finance said...

great article