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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Morning Market Report

There's lots of breaking economic news and more will break later this morning. First, revised GDP for the second quarter just got released. The economy shrank by .7%, which is better than the 1% shrink that was initially reported. On the other hand, ADP just released its jobs numbers for private employers. That number was worse than expected at 254,000. The consensus was 210,000. Meanwhile, despite continued lower rates, mortgage applications fell by 2.8%. Freddie Mac averages are below 5% for the first time in four months. At 9:45 AM ET, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index will come out. At 10:30 AM ET, the department of energy will come out with its weekly crude oil inventory numbers. Meanwhile, three regional Fed Chairman will also speak today at separate symposium.

After a great day on Monday, the markets all pared back with losses. The Dow was off 47.16 to 9742.20. The NASDAQ was off 6.70 to 2124.04, and the S&P 500 was off 2.37 to 1060.61. Meanwhile, oil is rallying just a bit. It's now at $67.43, up 72 cents a barrel from yesterday's close. It's up almost $1.50 a barrel from this time yesterday. U.S. Treasury bonds are holding relatively steady. The Ten Year U.S. Treasury bond is trading at 3.31%. It closed at 3.29% yesterday, and that was a low on the rate that goes back to June. The spread between the two and ten year bond has tightened even more. That's now at 2.29%, as the two year isn't showing nearly as much strength as the ten year.

Markets around the world were up nearly unanimously today. In the Far East, only a few indices spoiled the party while in Europe it was a unanimous across the board increase. The Hang Seng in China was down .28%, the NIKKEI in Japan was up .33%, and the Straits Time Index in Singapore was up .35%. In Europe, the FTSE in London was up .11%, the DAX in Germany was up .16% and the Spanish index was up .32%.

The Dollar looks to open weaker against most of the major currencies. It's down by .1% against the Euro, down by .42% against the British Pound and down by .32% against the Japanese Yen.


Anonymous said...

If the only reason people pay attention to the ADP numbers is because they serve as a preview to nonfarm payrolls, why bother? They haven't been particularly accurate in recent months.

mike volpe said...

I agree and I'll take it another step further. When was the last time consensus was anywhere near the real number. I've been watching the jobs number since 2003 and only a handful of times has that been right. Yet, we guage consensus and the market moves based on that. Still, the reason you bother is that it moves the market. I agree the real number is non farm payroll and the two don't necessarily seem to coincide but the market looks at both.