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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Breaking Down the Latest Health Care Polls

It appears the public disagreed with my assessment of the president's speech. I found little redeeming in it however both the President's personal popularity and the popularity of his health care reform bill have gotten a small bounce. The most recent evidence is Rasmussen showing an up trend for both health care reform and the president's popularity.

I believe that none of it matters. Now, I am sure some of my liberal readers will be saying that I am trying to justify my earlier analysis. Here's the analysis and the audience can decide. The first problem for the president is that there is no plan. The support is up for an abstract concept. The president straddled on every issue. He straddled on the public option, tort reform, how to pay for it, etc. Once there's a specific plan, people will have to choose sides. Some of the people now supporting the plan want a public option and others don't. Some of them will be disappointed.

More than that, the intensity is still with those that oppose. According to Rasmussen, there's a ten point advantage for those strongly opposed to strongly in favor 38-28. Those with lukewarm support of anything are easily swayed the other way. Supporters of the president's plan are made up mostly of those that support the plan in a lukewarm way. People that oppose the plan are overwhelmingly those that passionately oppose it. Since most of those that now support it are only in support after the speech that's not support he should count on for too long.

Ultimately, the dynamics haven't changed. All of the problems that president had in passing health care reform haven't changed. In the House, he can't pass it without the public option. In the Senate, he can't pass it with the public option. No one believes that he'll pay for it by cutting waste, fraud and abuse. People dont' like the price tag. No one is really sure how any of it will work. No one is really sure what the president wants specifically.

The president made a speech that was well received. It was better received than I expected. That's it though. Nothing has really changed. He's still trying to rule over total chaos. The chaos is in his own party. The Republicans can step back and watch the chaos and benefit. This bump is temporary. Now, the Congress gets down to business and that's what has crushed the poll numbers for the president and the health care reform. So, soon, we'll see the polls back where they were before the speech.


Since I posted, Rasmussen came out with their most recent health care poll. Support has fallen. This would lend evidence to my theory however Rasmussen has begun to do this poll daily and so we should all watch it over the next few days to see if this is a trend.


Anonymous said...

You completely missed the point. The President gave a speech, support for his plan bounced.

People trust the President. He still has the ability to generate support for whichever plan he eventually endorses.

I think people will be revolted by Baucus' plan. If the President throws his weight behind a public option and the House bill, it can pass. Support for it is substantial even in districts of Democrats who oppose it like Blanche Lincoln and Mike Ross.

The only problem with getting Obama to throw his weight behind it is how to get around Rahm Emanuel. He's a stone cold DLC'er and is adamantly opposed to a public plan.

mike volpe said...

Check out the latest Rasmussen poll which lends credence to my theory.

The people don't trust the president that much. He's a good speech maker and he had a massive bully pulpit. Emanual is no DLCer he's a Chicago pol, period.