People, the stars don't line up any more auspiciously than this. George W. Bush is to presidential unpopularity what Michael Phelps is to aquatic velocity. The Republican candidate for president is a wooden, uncharismatic denizen of Washington whose "maverick" image belies the fact that he has supported Bush on practically every big issue. The economy is sagging, the financial system is in crisis and gasoline prices remain punishingly high. In recent polls, as many as eight out of 10 Americans have said the country is on the wrong track. You don't need a soothsayer to read omens like these.
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In other words: Are Hillary Clinton's followers, many of whom care deeply about women's issues, ready to accept a Supreme Court majority that would do away with Roe v. Wade, which John McCain would surely deliver? Has Bill Clinton forgotten everything he ever learned about politics and forsaken his lifelong loyalty to the Democratic Party? Would Obama be wise to effectively renounce the use of his great oratorical gifts, which constitute one his most powerful and effective weapons?
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People here complain that the polls are too close for comfort, forgetting that there is rarely anything comfortable about a presidential contest. When was the last time a non-incumbent Democrat cruised easily to the White House? Clinton, remember, won only a 43 percent plurality of the popular vote in 1992. You have to go all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt in 1932. Why would anyone think for a moment that Obama could win this without a fight?
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Even with the fundamentals teed-up and the stars smiling, winning the White House was never going to be a walk in the park for any Democrat. The party will have had a successful convention if, at the end of the week, Democrats stop all the worrying and declare a moratorium on second-guessing. Go shake some hands and kiss some babies.
So, if you are keeping score, Robinson simultaneously notes that the conditions couldn't be more ripe for success, that most concerns are overblown, and yet we should all expect a close race. Now, I may not be familiar with the new math that Robinson is using but to me these simultaneous analyses don't add up.
Robinson is right on a few things. First, Democrats need to stop whining. Second, things are ripe for their party this year. That's why the polls being essentially tied should be a significant concern to all. This idea that this was always supposed to be close is wishful thinking. McCain was the default choice of a Republican field that almost no one in the party was terribly excited about. The party is facing steep upwinds. Obama appeared to be some sort of a phenomenon, and yet, less than three months before the election, things are tied. No, this wasn't the way it was always going to be. This is happening specifically because the Dem candidate is unbelievably weak.
His dismissal that almost all Hillary voters will come home to John McCain is also pure wishful thinking. First, McCain doesn't need a majority of Hillary voters to win. He just needs a signficant enough minority. If he can get up to 20% of Hillary voters to either vote for him, vote third party, or stay home, the election is his. Despite Robinson's wishful thinking, Hillary voters aren't all robotic ideologues who would never vote for someone that they disagree with on abortion. Many are pragmatists who would never vote for somone as unaccomplished as Barack Obama. Others are so ticked off that they may vote for McCain out of spite or just stay home. This movement is real and it should worry all Democrats.
Robinson is right that Bill Clinton is a political animal of unique talent. Yet, his behavior throughout Hillary's primary is inexplicable. Whatever his speech, he clearly forget everything he learned about politics between November and May.
No one doubts that Obama is a great orator. What everyone should question is just how much his oratory skills effect the public. Was his speech in Germany delivered poorly? Not at all, and yet it backfired wholeheartedly. The reality is that his soaring rhetoric has been his mainstay since the beginning of the campaign and it has had diminishing returns as the campaign moves on. More recently, the public has become more and more aware that his rhetoric has little specifics behind it. Those that notice his specifics have noticed that is startling in its liberalism. I don't think anyone doubts that Obama will deliver his speech with perfect oratory skills on Thursday, many doubt that much of the public will be impressed unless his vague soaring rhetoric is combined with sensible specific ideas.
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