The Political Tsunami Is Here

There's nearly 70% of the vote counted and Scott Brown is ahead by seven points. Because Massachusetts had no exit polls, I don't know when there will be an official call. So, I will make mine. Scott Brown is the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts.

The first thing that everyone should know is that the Democratic party is beginning to eat its own. Everyone within the Democratic party is pointing a finger at each other.

The Democratic Party collapsed into a circular firing squad while waiting for election returns from Massachusetts Tuesday, with everyone from Martha Coakley's pollster to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi taking shots at other Democrats.

The not-so-implicit premise: Democrats will lose the seat Ted Kennedy held for more than four decades.

While Democratic Senate insiders and some White House officials are blaming their own party’s nominee for a lackluster campaign that let Republican Scott Brown frame the race, Pelosi suggested Tuesday that her Senate counterparts shared part of the blame.

"We're always in touch with our members," Pelosi said at an afternoon press conference. "In the House, we don't have surprises when it comes to elections."

There is absolute chaos in the Democratic party. With chaos, that means nothing gets done. They can say what they want but if the Coakley campaign is blaming Obama and the national party. The national party is blaming the Coakley campaign. Nancy Pelosi is saying she's not out of touch.

So, while the Democrats begin the long and painful process of finger pointing, there won't be much time for health care reform. With Brown as the 41st vote, the Democrats won't be able to get this bill through the Senate. The only way to do this would be for the House to vote for the Senate's bill. That won't happen because Bart Stupak isn't happy with the abortion language. That's only the first problem.

The Democrats can talk about all the legislative tricks: reconciliation, voting before seating Brown, etc. but not only would that be political suicide but it won't happen.

Obama's liberal agenda has officially come to an end. From here, the president can decide what he wants to do with his presidency. If he wants to continue to ram through liberal and far left policies, he'll be, by far, the worst president we've ever had. He'll get nothing done. He'll leave an economy in shambles, a homeland vulnerable, and the world very dangerous.

On the other hand, he can take these results as a message. What happens going forward is entirely in his hands. Bill Clinton showed that stunning defeats can turn into political victories in the future. Obama's liberal agenda has been dying a slow and painful death since the summer. It's now officially dead. We'll see what the president does in its aftermath.

Brown V Coakley: 24 Hours (Updated)

Conservatives are running wild with this story first broken by CNN.

Multiple advisers to President Obama have privately told party officials that they believe Democrat Martha Coakley is going to lose Tuesday’s special election to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat held by the late Ted Kennedy for more than 40 years, several Democratic sources told CNN Sunday.

The dynamics of the race haven't changed. I'm still getting emails from every Tea Party related group on the planet about this race. Here's an example.

If you live outside of the area: There are two ways you can help that will make a dramatic impact on turning out the vote for Scott Brown.
FIRST: The most valuable way to help is to contact all of your friends, family members or acquaintances who you think or know are supporting Scott Brown. Or willing to hear you out. Contact them via email, Twitter, phone call, Facebook or carrier pigeon.

The president spoke on behalf of Coakley yesterday and so her campaign got some much needed media attention. This morning both were at an event marking Martin Luther King's birthday.

With more than 1,000 people in attendance at the Hynes Convention Center, Coakley entered the room to a light smattering of applause and took her place at the head table. Brown arrived a bit later and quietly took his seat at a table on the main floor.

A bit later, the two candidates took the opportunity to do some 11th-hour politicking, glad-handing attendees and posing for pictures. Coakley went from table to table through a sea of television cameras and promised to "work the vote" until the last minute.

"We're going to see this through," she told one guest.

Brown didn't speak and then criticized Coakley for "politicking" at this event. The dynamics remain the same and so I am still predicting that Brown wins going away.

UPDATE:

H/T to Watchdog.org. Here's a video of a phone bank for Martha Coakley. The number of people, ZERO, tells the tale.

Coakley V Brown: 48 Hours Left

H/T to my blogging cohort Gerard Vanderleun at the American Digest for this article. This article, from a liberal blogger in Massachusetts, says all you need to know about this race.

Let's get this out of the way. You might not want to vote for Martha Coakley. You might think she deserves what's she's getting after an absentee, self-satisfied campaign (why should I bail her out?). You likely want to send a message to everyone from the attorney general all the way to every Democratic official in Washington, DC. Odds are you didn't vote for her in the primary. And, you might be wondering if it'll make a difference who wins this Tuesday.

You got every reason to be pissed, but it needs to be clear: not voting for Coakley is the same as voting for Brown. And voting for Brown is a very, very bad thing.

sabutai :: Yes it sucks. Yes you have to vote Coakley.

That article is really a pep talk for all the dejected and disgruntled Massachusetts liberals who aren't all that excited about Tuesday. The blogger is hoping they see the bigger picture.

I remember articles just like this by Conservative pundits in both 2006 and 2008 saying the same thing to conservatives. These sorts of pep talks only happen when the leadership knows that the rank and file aren't all that excited.

That's as clear as you will get that all the energy, excitement and momentum is with Scott Brown in this race with 48 hours to go. Coakley continues to make gaffes, meanwhile. The latest is less serious though not knowing that Curt Schilling was a Red Sox hero is a major no no.

Rea: But Scott Brown has Curt Schilling.

Coakley: Another Yankee fan.

Rea: Schilling?

Coakley: Yes.

Rea: Curt Schilling a Yankee fan??

Coakley: No.

Rea: Curt Schilling a Yankee fan? TheRed Sox great pitcher of the bloody sock?

Coakley: Well, he's not there anymore.

Now, I doubt that anyone will have their vote hinge on whether or not Martha Coakley knows Curt Schilling's history as a Red Sock. What this does do is put this gaffe into the media cycle.

There's a much more serious, and slimy, gaffe in this attack ad. This photo, first reported by Greg Sargent, is an allusion to Scott Brown voting against a law to let emergency hospitals turn away rape victims in need of emergency contraception. That's downright nasty.

All these gaffes combine to take Martha Coakley off message. That would be more of a problem if Coakley had a message. Right now, it's not very clear why she's running for the U.S. Senate except to benefit herself.

Meanwhile, Scott Brown sticks to his two talking: "I'm the 41st vote against health care" and "this isn't Ted Kennedy's seat but the people's seat".

It's pretty clear where this race is headed. The latest poll has Scott Brown up by 3, and three of the last five polls in the RCP average have Brown up.

With forty eight hours to go, Brown has the momentum and the wind at his back, and I believe he won't merely win but win going away.