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Friday, March 28, 2008

Hillary's Scorched Earth Nightmare Scenario

So, everyone is trying to figure out how Hillary can win this nomination, and most of the conventional wisdom has it at being impossible. Well, I have a scenario that gives her a fighting chance at the nomination however if she employs it there will be nothing but mad chaos in the Democratic Party.

Let's suppose that she wins rather handily in Pennsylvania. Let's further suppose that the momentum carries her to a close victory in North Carolina. Now, let's suppose she wins all or most of the remaining states. Now, let's once again suppose that after all the primaries are over, Hillary will be trailing Obama in both delegates and total votes but not by much.

While Obama is making the case that he deserves the nomination because he has more delegates and total votes, Hillary will make an equally compelling case that if Michigan and Florida were counted that she would have more delegates and total votes. Florida and Michigan may or may not still seat their delegates, however it looks almost totally hopeless that they will seat them according to any vote. Without the delegates of Florida and Michigan fairly decided, Hillary will make the equally compelling arguement that the will of the voters wasn't spoken in choosing Obama. The two candidates will spend the time in between the end of the primaries and the convention convincing the super delegates that their position is more legitimate.

At that point, there will be plenty of people who will see neither candidate as a the legitimate winner, and take any result as stolen. Chaos will be unleashed, and at that point the winner is unimportant because ultimately the whole party loses.

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