Quick Post Iowa Thoughts

Here is the latest GOP Presidential Futures data. The futures market saw the big winner as John McCain. He is now the favorite in the market. McCain continues to be all in in NH. He must win and that is still no easy task given that Romney is essentially a favorite son. Keep in mind that a third of folks in New Hampshire watch Massachusetts television. Despite coming in a very distant sixth, Rudy also had a good night last night. His proxy, Mike Huckabee, took the victory and foiled Romney's momentum strategy. I continue to believe that Romney was the biggest threat to Rudy because only Romney had the resources to challenge Rudy nationwide. Huckabee might get the sort of funding he needs as a result of this victory however that is not likely. He is unlikely to finish better than third in NH and so some momentum will be stalled.

Even with victory in NH, McCain faces a similar national problem to Huckabee: organization and cash. Rudy is of course likely rooting for McCain in NH, and would pull off the trifecta if say Fred Thompson won in South Carolina. This is Rudy's dream scenario and it would turn his campaign into an oracle even if it was likely by accident as i suspect.

Fred Thompson finished third in Iowa, tied with McCain. The blogosphere was jubilant. They treated it as a victory and continued to throw venom on a report by the Politico that he would drop out. I am of the opinion that most of the right blogosphere is totally out of their minds and cheer leading rather than analyzing. Thompson is likely to not finish better than third anywhere and is fourth nationally. If there is a winning strategy there, I am missing it.

Ron Paul got double digits which will no doubt send his supporters screaming revolution all over the internet.

The situation remains fluid and the nomination is still up in the air. I believe Romney is through whether he wins NH or not. McCain must win NH or he is through, though a victory could give him the sort of momentum necessary to make a national run. Huckabee needs to ride this momentum into cash or organization or soon enough folks will realize that Iowa doesn't have many delegates. He will likely not do as well in more moderate and independent NH, but will be on more friendly turf in South Carolina. Rudy must simply sit back and hope no one gains any momentum and hope his lead in Florida maintains till the 29th. If he wins Florida, he will win the nomination because that is a victory with real momentume, however as a friend of mine liked to say,

if if was a fifth we'd all be drunk

The Democratic race is now a serious two horse race. Hillary maintains a national lead, with money and organization. Still, her performance in Iowa must bear the question: what is the purpose of her campaign. Obama is running on the politics of hope and he has charm, charisma and likeability. I, myself, don't buy the act at all however I am his political opponent. At least, I get the point of his campaign. Edwards has his two America's shtick. I don't buy it either but at least he has a shtick. What is the purpose of Hillary's campaign? I think the folks in Iowa were asking that question.

While Edwards beat Hillary, he was all in in Iowa. He has little presence outside Iowa and less cash, and worse than that Hillary and Obama are drowning in cash. His campaign continues but it is in the beginning of a slow and painful death.

Obama could take control of this race with a victory in NH. He would ride that momentum to a likely victory in South Carolina and winning each of the first three states would make him difficult to beat regardless of his position nationally.

Hillary is not through by a long shot, however I see her campaign as weak. While a loss in Iowa is not the end, I don't see how she will re gain momentum. She tried a charm offensive except she isn't charming. She has equivocated on Iraq and driver's licenses for illegals. She frankly has equivocated on everything. She touts experience even though it seems even the Dems get that it isn't really her experience. She has no messag, purpose, or theme to her campaign. That is a problem.