Russia moved to recognize the contested territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on August 25 in a move apparently calculated to capitalize on lingering tensions between Moscow and Georgia following the two countries’ armed conflict this month.
The Federation Council – the upper house of Russia’s bicameral parliament – voted 134-0 in favor of a resolution to formally recognize both territories. The lower house, the Duma, quickly followed suit. "Today it is clear that after Georgia’s aggression against South Ossetia, Georgian-South-Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhazian relations cannot be returned to their former state,"
Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov was reported as saying during discussion of the resolution. "The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have the right to get independence." Mironov had earlier promised both regions recognition if Russian President Dmitry Medvedev took a "relevant decision," Interfax reported on August 20. Russian law stipulates that Medvedev must approve the resolution before it becomes an official act of recognition.
On one level, this move is entirely symbolic. The rest of the world won't follow and this recognition will as such not be recognized by the world community. This is a very dangerous level.
The reality is that Russia continues to do as it pleases in Georgia with impugnity. Russia is likely to take the act as if approach to this regognition. Russia will act as if South Ossetia is its own nation. They will recognize the elections that are likely to follow. They will welcome the new leader as a head of state into Moscow. They will begin aggressive free trade policies, and they may even fund the tiny territory and carry their economy for a while. They'll be able to do all of this because Russian troops will be there to protect the two provinces. Soon enough, the territory will act as a country long enough that the rest of the world will feel as though it is only right to begin to recognize them. The world will conveniently forget the events that lead to all of this.
After the two provinces are recognized as their own nations, it is only a matter of time before the embarrassment to Saakashvilli brings down his own government. Of course, that will naturally lead to a puppet government of Russia. The first domino will fall and the rest of Europe will be next.
Putin has shown evil genius in orchestrating all of this. For years, he not only ingratiated his country into the economies of Europe but eventually he made his country vital to their economies. Right now, Russia supplies about 25% of Europe's energy. As such, all of Europe is careful at just how far they will confront Russia for fear that he will cut off oil and crush their economies. The leaders of most of Europe are simply not in a position to risk their entire economies just for the tiny state of Georgia. As such, Putin does what he will and the world speaks tough in condemnation. Their words become more and more empty as he subverts their will at every step.
The cowardice of Europe is shocking and disturbing. This cowardice belies a naivite or ignorance to the idea that once Putin annexes Georgia he will simply stop. It won't. Georgia is only the first step in his quest to rule the world or at least as much of it as possible. It seems that history will continue to repeat itself and the world will pretend as though it won't happen again. This is no different than Hitler's march through Europe. Hitler didn't start by confronting Britain. Instead, he walked over the much smaller nations of Poland and Czechoslavakia. Just the same, Putin is starting with the tiny country of Georgia. He knows full well that the risk to the rest of the world are too great "just to defend the tiny nation of Georgia". As such, we are head head first into the third war on the continent. It's happening in the exact same way as the second one started, and the rest of Europe is acting exactly as it did when they failed to confront Hitler before it was too late.
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