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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Morning Market Report

Markets were up significantly yesterday. Most indices were up about three percent yesterday. That came on the strength of Intel's stronger than expected and their outlook for the rest of the year was also very strong. Earnings reports are a lot more mixed today. Both Harley Davidson and Marriott had earnings that disappointed while Nokia's earnings were in line but their outlook for the second half of the year was cut. All three stocks are down fairly significantly in pre market trading. The Dow is now trading just above its close yesterday after moving up almost 50 points prior to the announcement of these three's numbers. The NASDAQ and the S&P are both now down marginally.

The picture is clouded by numbers on jobless claims that are mixed.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell sharply last week to the lowest level since January, but the seasonally adjusted data was again distorted by an unusual pattern of automotive industry layoffs that amplified the drop.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance fell 47,000 to a lower-than-expected seasonally adjusted 522,000 in the week ended July 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday

World markets were up largely on the strength of the U.S. markets yesterday. The Hang Seng in China was up 1.12%, the NIKKEI in Japan was up .81%, while the Straits Time Index in Singapore was up .49%. Europe saw similar gains. The FTSE in London was up .53%, the DAX in German was up 1.02%, and the Spanish index was up 1.33%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar looks down at the open against most major currencies. It's down against the Euro by .17%, against the British Pound by .27% and by .5% against the Japanese Yen. Crude oil is trading at just under $61 a barrel after it moved up significantly yesterday on the strength of the equity markets.

Treasury bonds had their interest rates go up yesterday but are coming down slightly today. The Ten Year U.S. Treasury is trading at 3.56% after hitting 3.6%. Meanwhile, the spread between the 2 year and 10 year is 2.6%. It reached a all all time high of 2.75% in June. The yield spread measures the likelihood of future inflation.

My analysis:

The market has made up a good chunk of what it's lost over the last four weeks. Through the end of the day yesterday, all earnings reports were better than expected. Now, we're seeing a more mixed picture with the announcement from Marriott, Nokia, and Harley Davidson. We'll see how the market responds but I am still not changing my own view of intermediate and long term bearish.

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