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Friday, July 10, 2009

Morning Market Report

GM is finishing up its bankruptcy and will emerge today.

Futures look to open modestly lower after Chevron warned about it's second quarter earnings. The Dow looks to be off 60 points, the NASDAQ 5, and the S&P 8. The Dow will likely test 8100 before the trading day is over.

Yesterday, was a fairly quiet day in the market. All indeces were up single digits. Bonds were where all the activity was at. The ten year U.S. Treasury moved up about 10 basis points to just under 3.40%. Bonds look like they are going to get most of that back today. Currently, the 10 year is back back to 3.33%.

Around the world, the markets in the Far East were farily tame. The Hang Seng was down .46%, the NIKKEI was down .04%, while the Straits Times Index in Singapore was up .02%. In Europe all major indeces were down, the FTSE was down .68%, the German DAX was down .55%, while the biggest loser was the Spanish index down 1.54%.

Oil wil break through $60 a barrel at the open. It's currently trading $59.05. That continues a two week run in which it started at $72 a barrel. That's about a fifteen percent decrease in just over two weeks.

The U.S. Dollar looks stronger agains almost all other currency except the Yen. The Yen continues to be a very strong currency. The Yen looks to be up .83% against the Dollar. Meanwhile, the Dollar looks to open up against the Pound, the Euro, and the Australian Dollar.

My analysis:

Once again, we have more evidence that the equity markets are oversold. A couple days ago, Alcoa had much stronger than expected earnings. The markets didn't respond nearly at all. Now, equities look weaker because of Chevron's warnings on the same subject. This continues a trend in which equities fixate on bad news and overlook good news. As such, I continue to see markets down another five to ten percent in the intermediate term, until the end of the summer.


Everything in this space should be taken as information only. All opinions are my own only and should NOT be taken as an endorsement or investment strategy. I am not a licensed investment advisor and nothing here should be taken as investment advice.

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