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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Post Debate Wrap Up...Or Barack Obama Vs. Joe the Plumber

Only in America can a bald headed plumber thrust himself into the spotlight by simply asking a question. Many things remain hazy following the debate except that Joe the Plumber, as he will be called, is now entering what Andy Warhol believed that everyone would eventually have, their fifteen minutes.

The debate was a clash in styles and in substance. Barack Obama was cool, smooth, and in control. John McCain was feisty, combative, and even erratic. Barack Obama called for big government fixes, while John McCain called for across the board tax cuts and spending cuts. McCain finally defended his plan to cut corporate tax rates and even used Ireland as an example. (something I said he should have done after the last debate) On the other hand, McCain never once during any of the debates pointed out that about forty percent of Americans don't pay any federal taxes at all. McCain has allowed Obama to frame his policy as a tax cut for 95% of Americans without ever mentioning that you can't cut something below zero.

Obama was definitively more coherent on both education and especially health care. McCain put Obama on the defensive, finally, on both tax policy and spending policy. The most interesting portion for me (though one that likely will mean little in the overall scheme) was each of the candidate's descriptions of the VP picks. Obama described Biden as fighting for the little guy, the middle class, and having a wealth of experience. These are frankly standard and canned answers that can be used to describe just about any long standing politician. McCain said that Palin took on her own party's Governor. She took on corruption as a member of the board overseeing the oil companies. She cut taxes, balanced the budget, and negotiated a major oil pipeline. For all of the talk about Palin not being ready, it certainly sounds as though she has done a lot more than Biden has.

Still, the star of this debate was Joe the Plumber who was mentioned nearly thirty times. It is also Joe the Plumber that marks the opportunity for McCain to thread the needle and make a comeback. It won't be easy and the odds are against him, but he still has a chance. First, Joe will likely become a media darling from now until the campaign is over. Joe has now become a symbol of how best to move this country forward. If Joe won't be able to afford to buy a business because of Senator Obama's tax policies, then how many other people will be in that situation? Is such a policy the right idea given the state of the economy? These are all questions that Senator McCain must raise in the next two and half weeks. He will have help from Joe who will now become the new media darling.

With Joe in the backdrop proclaiming that Obama's tax policies are socialistic and taking offense that the government would take more of his hard earned money to "spread the wealth", John McCain needs to come up behind to hammer home that income redistribution is a failed idea. With Joe the Plumber being the center of the media's attention, it will also be Senator Obama's tax policies that will get the bulk of the scrutiny. If he attacks his plan as sharply as the Wall Street Journal, McCain has an opportunity to undress Obama's tax policies for the house of cards that they are. While Obama plans on sticking the top earners with a massive increase that could be as much as ten percent more in taxes, everyone else will receive a so called tax cut through a series of credits like an increased child credit, savings credit, and increasing the earned income tax credit. He has been able to ride this gimmick into a theme that he is going to cut 95% of people's taxes. McCain needs to frame Obama's tax policy as a giant tax increase on America's tax creators and that giant tax increase turns into giveaways for the poor and middle class. If he does that, he might just pull of the stunning upset.

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