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Saturday, October 18, 2008

The Nightmare Scenario: Obama Presidency and the Supermajority

The Wall Street Journal has a piece on this potential nightmare. The scenario would have Barack Obama win the Presidency while the Democrats hold the House and the Democrats gain over sixty seats in the Senate. In this scenario, any bill that either Barack Obama or his Democratic legislative colleagues create couldn't be stopped by the Republicans. It is a nightmare scenario for all conservatives. Let's examine what sorts of policy and actions could result.

1) Judges

The issue of judges has become non existent in this campaign. That is not only a shame but a downright scandal. In reality, one of the most lasting legacies of any President is the judges that they happen to select. It's not only the Supreme Court but rather the court system in general. Do you think that Ruth Bader Ginsburg is far too liberal for your tastes? She will likely seem Conservative after you see the sorts of judges that Barack Obama will select with no threat of filibuster. This is the same Barack Obama that is to the to the left of Planned Parenthood on abortion. With Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid leading the way in Congress, Barack Obama will be able to choose whatever judge he pleases. He has of course never actually chosen a judge however we do know that he rejected both Alito and Roberts not because of qualifications but ideology. The only question mark is whether or not we have the current metamorphisis of Barack Obama on the 2nd amendment or the one in Illinois in the mid 1990's that wanted to ban all guns.

2) Social issues

The first casualty of the likely super majority will likely be talk radio. What isn't being talked about much, but lies beneath the surface, is the Democrat's desire to purge talk radio by re instituting the Fairness Doctrine. Folks like Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein have every intention of bringing this to a vote. Barack Obama is on record as opposing such a move however his opposition is tacit and meager at best. If there is a super majority, we will almost certainly see the Fairness Doctrine re installed after its twenty year plus hiatus.

Look not only for judges that will make sure that Roe V. Wade is the law of the land forever, but look for Congressional action to make abortion easier. There will be laws limiting parental notification, making it easier to cross state lines to have an abortion, and there will be more funding to groups like Planned Parenthood.

Nancy Pelosi has a special relationship with the LBGT community and she has been looking to make ENDA the law of the land. Giving special protections for LGBT folks in the workplace, this bill has never gained enough traction to become law. That's because it would take a full far left governance to make that happen, and that's what we would have with the nightmare scenario. Senator Obama has already made his intention clear to make equal pay for equal work the law of the land. As such, there would be a whole new layer of bureaucracy to settle disputes between workers and employers.

3) The economy.

First, Senator Obama believes in a new "regulatory framework". Of course, this is a euphimism for creating a plethora of new rules and regulations for business to follow. This may seem like a good idea when it is on the campaign trail, but one reason for this is that Senator Obama has never specified any of these new regulations. In reality, the new "regulatory framework" likely means all businesses will have to deal with all sorts of new bureaucracy, paperwork, and punitive rules that will simply make it nearly impossible to do business. With a Republican check, some of these rules might be countered, but with no check, the liberal Congress will be all too happy to make sure that a new "regulatory framework" is created.

The unions will see a revival with the planned card check and an end to the secret ballot. It's possible that Wal Mart will be forced into a union and the results of that for the company would be disastrous. New union power will mean massive cuts in profits and a strain on the economy. This of course would happen at the exact time that our economy would already be weak.

Senator Obama is also determined to go forward with income redistribution. That means the wealthy will face a punitive tax increase will about 40% of the country, that doesn't actually pay taxes, will get a government welfare. Punishing job creators while we are losing jobs is the sort of thing that Herbert Hoover attempted to do in 1932. Besides taxing more, Herbert Hoover and the Republicans also practiced protectionist trade policy. That's exactly what Senator Obama and the Democrats will practice. Whatever stance Senator Obama has now on free trade, one thing is clear. Between his own protectionist views and that of the liberal Democratic leadership in the legislature, you aren't likely to see any new free trade bills pass. We've had enough trouble getting free trade through with a pro free trade President. With Senator Obama, Free Trade will be a thing of the past.

Finally, there is the issue of spending. Between universal health care, education, infrastructure, and the plethora of pork that Senator Obama and his Democratic allies will create, spending might increase by as much as one trillion Dollars. This combined with President Bush's $700 billion bailout will balloon our deficit to the point that the only possible outcome is massive inflation. As such, the nightmare scenario of unchecked liberal tax and spend policies is extreme stagflation, meaning a depression at the same time there is hyper inflation.

4) Foreign policy

We have a novice who's geopolitical vision is perverted. He will halt free trade, open our borders, and provide everyone including illegals free health care. This means that the Latin American sphere will see serious economic downturn. Meanwhile our borders will be open wide at the same time anyone entering will find a quasi socialist state, even if they aren't supposed to be here.

Beyond that, Barack Obama is determined to meet with each and everyone of our enemies and hopefully, for him, do it in the first year. As such, while our allies see free trade with our nation close, they also see our President shaking hands with our enemies. Furthermore, Barack Obama is determined to "heal our European alliances". This of course leads directly to the European vision of endless negotiation weak diplomacy and non existent military might. Finally, there is simply no way to predict what his change in mid stream strategy of a timetable in Iraq will bring. It is possible that the nightmare we faced in early 2007 will once again be realized. Furthermore, Barack Obama has promised to cut our military might significantly. It is unclear if he will do this with no preconditions, but certainly our own reduction in military capacity will be seen as a sign of weakness by the likes of Vladimir Putin. Terrorists will see more rights and the Patriot Act will be cut up. In other words, our intelligence will be run by a novice that thinks the previous administration was going after terrorists too aggressively.


j3hill said...

Looks like you have this pretty much nailed except for one thing. The gun issue. Would Obama be so bold as to go after them? We all know how he thinks on this, and it has come right from his own mouth. Most of us have seen his 10 point plan on this that his campaign has put out and his voting record in ILL says alot.
1. Ban use of firearms for home defense.

2. Pass Federal laws eliminating your Right -to Carry.

3. Ban the manufacture, sale and possession of handguns.

4. Close down 90% of the gun shops in America.

5. Ban rifle ammunition commonly used for hunting and sport shooting.

6. Increase federal taxes on guns and ammunition by 500%


8. Expand the Clinton semi-auto ban to include millions more firearms.

9. Mandate a government issued license to purchase a firearm.

10. Appoint judges to the U. S. Supreme Court and Federal judiciary who share his views on the Second Amendment.

So what does a state constitution do about this? Take the State of Washington for example, sec. 24

SECTION 24 RIGHT TO BEAR ARMS. The right of the individual citizen to bear arms in defense of himself, or the state, shall not be impaired

Will the people of that state just have single shot rifles? Or can this be the start of states pushing back on 10th amendmend grounds? And what if push comes to shove?

Anonymous said...

Obama voted against doctors assisting
saving the life of a "botched abortion".

Anonymous said...

Obama voted against doctors assisting
saving the life of a botched abortion

scharnhauser said...

If Obama goes after all guns, he will either fail or cause a civil war. I will never give my guns away. Maybe a .22 rifle to appease the gov't but eventually me and my military and police friends will fight. This is how civil wars start. General Lee and General Grant fought the Mexican War together but separated in 1860. History repeats itself.

scharnhauser said...

It is not possible to take away all guns from Americans without a civil war. If the federal government attempted to do this, the police and military would divide because many of them would not be willing to fire upon persons from their own communities. Grant and Lee fought together during the Mexican War in 1850 but opposed eachother in our civil war. History can repeat itself. I will never give my guns to the government.