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Saturday, December 22, 2007

Divide and Conquer

A few days ago, I wondered if the formation of a new umbrella Sunni insurgent group was good or bad for the coalition. Reading this from Michael Goldfarb, it looks as though this may in fact be a case of more splintering of the Sunni insurgency.
The Sunni insurgency continues to fracture as U.S. and Iraqi forces are onthe offensive in central and northern Iraq. Izzat Ibrahim al Douri, the Sunniinsurgency's most wanted Baathist leader, has formed a new insurgent front whichis willing to negotiate, while a faction of the 1920s Revolution Brigades openlydenounced al Qaeda.A grouping of 22 Sunni insurgent groups have “convened a UnificationCongress in a liberated neighborhood in Baghdad” and formed the Supreme Command for Jihad and Liberation. The front appointed al Douri its leader. Theannouncement, posted on albasrah.net, a Baathist website, lists the 22 insurgent groups, as well as the terms and conditions of negotiations....The statement by the Supreme Command for Jihad and Liberation glaringlyignores al Qaeda in Iraq, and the offer of negotiations is an affront to alQaeda’s ideology. Evidence of al Douri’s split from al Qaeda emergedin August, when one of his spokesmen said he "decided to sever ties withal-Qaeda and sign up to the programme of the national resistance, which includesrouting Islamist terrorists and opening up dialogue with the Baghdad governmentand foreign forces." Al Douri pledged bayat--an oath of allegiance--to Abu Musabal Zarqawi, al Qaeda in Iraq's former commander, in early 2004.
While questions remain about al Douri’s influence in the insurgency, his split with alQaeda and a willingness to negotiate represents a significant shift in his viewon the prospects of success for the Sunni insurgency. Al Douri is an expert intesting the political winds in Iraq. He survived Saddam’s Baathist purges androse in the ranks to become the second in command of the Revolutionary CommandCouncil. He avoided U.S. capture for over four years and joined al Qaeda in Iraqin 2004 as the terror group consolidated power in post-war Iraq.There is more good news...
A breakaway Sunni insurgent faction from the 1920 Revolution Brigades known as"Hamas in Iraq" has issued a formal response to recent allegations by AbuOmar al-Baghdadi, the leader of Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq." In anofficial communiqué dated October 2, Iraqi Hamas accused Al-Qaida ofinflicting "great suffering" on ordinary Iraqi Sunnis: "every day they witnessed heads or headless bodies lying in their streets. Each one of these victims had been accused of a so-called ‘crime’ prohibited by Al-Qaida fatwahs... then [Al-Qaida] attacked Ameriyyat [al-Fallujah] with a car bomb packed with chlorine gas canisters, and they even laid siege to the area to prevent food and fuel from getting to people. Finally, they killed several men at the local market and smashed their heads against boxes of food... We [have] witnessed dozens of beheaded bodies and none of them were Americans. Rather, they were all local people from the area—people who, at one point, had supported the Al-Qaida network until they themselves had becomedisposable." In fact, according to Hamas in Iraq--as a result of the various crimes Al-Qaida has committed against innocent Muslim civilians--"the Al-Qaida network has actually made people here think that the occupation forces are merciful and humane by comparison."It was Sun Tzu that originated the military strategy of divide and conquer. That is what we have here. The Sunni insurgency is finding out that each of their factions have competing interests. Al Douri's faction is nationalist while AQI is religious. Beyond that even the typical murderous, evil, sociopathic insurgent finds that AQI's tactics are too much to swallow and thus you see further splits like the one mentioned vis a vis Hamas in Iraq.Meanwhile on the Shia insurgency front, we see similar things. The coalition killed 25 Shia insurgents today. This group belonged to a group that splintered from JAM when Al Sadr announced a six month moratorium on violence.It almost seems to obvious to analyze why this is important so I will first quote Mr. Tzu on the concept of divide and conquer,
the art of using troops is this: When ten to the enemy's one, surround him; Whenfive times his strength, attack him; If double his strength, divide himThat is what is happening here. The enemy is fighting as much amongst themselves as they are against us. The more we put the pressure on the more this will happen. There is only a core of hard core fighters and the rest were recruited for money, power, and hooliganism. Once the mass of the insurgency sees their days are numbered they will lay their arms and some will even turn. Our military must continue to put the pressure on a la the strike today and they will, and we must continue to put the pressure on our weak kneed politicians who are ready to give up just as we are ready to win.

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