An Update on the Bow: By the Numbers

I am going to say I told you so even before there is necessarily anything to tell. The story of the bow is simmering. First, let's go to the tape again.



Now, I predicted that the story would soon enough blow up and become a scandal for the administration that would take him off message for at least a week. That hasn't happened just yet, but it is about to. This morning CNN decided it was time to actually report on the story (H/T to Hot Air)

Both Chicago newspapers have a column today about it. Furthermore, Robert Gibbs was asked about it yesterday at his daily briefing. He stuck to the White House story that the president was merely shaking with two hands and bending down to a smaller man and even dismissed the story by saying this

I'm sure it's of great cause and concern to people struggling in this economy.

All that's left to get this into the mainstream is a segment on the View and for Jay Leno and/or David Letterman to use it in their monologues.

Let's make no mistakes. This story won't hit the mainstream because of the MSM but rather despite it. Between pirate attacks, the economy, North Korea, and Iran there is plenty to keep the media busy.

To understand why this story is about to take off all we need to do is analyze the numbers. Youtube has at least five versions of this video. Between the five, they have been viewed almost three million times and counting. There are about fifty thousand comments attached to the three million viewings. The numbers tell the story. That's a video people are interested in.

Ben Smith of Politico had a blog post about it and it had over 3000 comments. He had a follow up and that is now over 1000 comments. His third story is near three hundred comments. I went through his archive and stories range from a handful of comments to a few hundred. The first two were the two most commented posts by far. It's likely by the end of the day the three stories about the bow will be the most commented stories on Smith's blog. A story with a lot of comments is one that people are not only interested in but one that provokes a response. The numbers say this story has both in spades.

This two day old Chicago Sun Times story produced nearly two hundred comments. Their stories average less than half that. (if you read this story later in the day check out the links to the two original Chicago paper stories. I would bet the comments following it will be overwhelming by the evening) A story posted earlier today on FoxForum already has nearly 2000 comments. That's above what they average and the story has generated this startling amount of comments in less than three hours.

The liberal Huffington Post has nearly 4000 comments. That isn't necessarily the most ever but in their top 20% of all their stories. The liberal site, Wonkette, has 188 comments to this story on their site. They average just under a hundred comments. The liberal site, Crooks and Liars, has 130 comments to their story on the matter. The average about 70 comments on their stories. Ironically enough, the three liberal sites play the angle that this is all much ado about nothing, and yet, their liberal commenters seem to have a lot to say about "nothing".

Of course, the conservative blogs has a massive fascination with it. This Hot Air story about had over 400 comments and 30 stories link to it. Both are near the top of their averages.

While all of these numbers continue to merely be anecdotal, numbers also don't lie. This is by far the most talked about story Ben Smith has done that I have found. Three million viewings is massive. It appears that wherever it appears the story is the subject of great debate. This means the story is tailor made to explode.

The story has all the elements of one that winds up on the front pages soon enough. That's because it has several layers. The bow itself is rather disturbing. The first time I saw it, the bow wasn't that bothersome, but it has become much more bothersome with subsequent viewings. Second, the bow opens up all sorts of debates about the way President Obama views our nation, and also our "relationship" with Saudi Arabia. The most troubling aspect of the story from the perspective of the White House is that they continue to deny it happened. Everytime they do this, the video becomes the subject of more interest. Their obfuscation and deceit about something everyone can obviously see happened is what will ultimately carry it to the front pages. The element of he said/he said is what will drive this to the front pages. I predict that by about Wednesday of next week this will become one of the leading stories everywhere.