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Thursday, January 21, 2010

Morning Market Report

There's breaking economic news that will have as much political impact as economic.

The number of newly-laid off workers seeking jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, as the job market recovers at a slow and uneven pace.

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 482,000. Wall Street economists had expected a small drop.

Now, if you've been following the monthly jobs number, you know that our economy took a step back in terms of jobs last month. We lost about 80,000 jobs in December after gaining 5,000 jobs the month before. This number is also getting worse.

Both of those are signs that the economy is headed for a W shaped recovery. In layman's terms, the economic recovery will be choppy and that means an unstable job market for the indefinite future. That will cause Obama and the Democrats nearly as much pain as the jobseekers.

The data hasn't been interpreted all that badly yet by equities. All three indices are down but rather slightly. All are down less than .25% in the pre markets. Meanwhile, bonds are also a bit weaker which is a bit of a head scratcher. The ten year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.67%. That's weaker by two basis points. The yield spread between the two and ten year is 2.78%. The three month t bill is at .041%. Those are all roughly what they've been over the last week and a half.

Markets in the Far East and Europe are mixed. The Hang Seng in China was down 1.99%, the NIKKEI in Japan was up 1.22%, and the Straits Time Index was down 1.46%. In Europe, the FTSE in London is up .24%, the DAX in Germany is up .62%, and the Spanish index is down .18%.

The Dollar, meanwhile, is showing strength this morning. It's up .08% against the Euro, up .61% against the British Pound, and up .53% against the Japanese Yen.

Finally, in the latest quarter, the Chinese economy grew by just more than 10%.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

The President Calls No Mas

Four words were music to all conservatives ears this evening.


White House Reduces Expectation of Passing Health Care Reform

Obamacare is officially dead, and the president will hope to pass something that will save face but ultimately do no damage.

The big winners here are the Tea Parties. Lately, I've been questioning their ability to turn their organizing phenomenon into an electoral one. They answered that emphatically with the victory of Scott Brown. The Tea Parties have officially crossed over into a full service political force.

The Tea Parties have, every step of the way, been the force that has blocked each and every part of the agenda and they've won an emphatic victory. They have officially clipped Obama's wings.

Council Submissions

The Council Submissions are up.

Council Submissions
American Digest - Bring. It. On.
Bookworm Room - A perfect statement about the balance of power between government, citizens and business
Joshuapundit - Pat Robertson, The Devil And Me
Rhymes With Right - Getting It Right On Palin
The Glittering Eye - The Triumph
Right Truth - Here Come the Orphans
Soccer Dad - Rachel’s tomb and the protection of jewish holy sites
Mere Rhetoric - Government Labor Protections And Welfare Policies Keeping French Youths Jobless, Alienated
The Colossus of Rhodey - Harry Reid, “light-skinned” and “Avatar”
The Provocateur - Some Thoughts on Dr. Chacko’s Dismissal
Wolf Howling - Wailing & Lamentations
Non-Council Submissions
Submitted By: American Digest – Sippican Cottage - Quincy Market (Election Day)
Submitted By: Bookworm Room – A New Conservative Lesbian - Obama’s ‘Enabling Act’ trial balloon
Submitted By: Joshuapundit – Seraphic Secrets Haiti: No One But the Israelis Has Come to Help - Guardians Report In: HS1 Larry Berman
Submitted By: Right Truth – Fore-Left - The Ties That Bind – Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal
Submitted By: Soccer Dad – The Muqata - Israel’s emergency response
Submitted By: Mere Rhetoric – Danger Room - Visualizing the Underwear Bomber’s Online Life
Submitted By: The Colossus of Rhodey – Common Sense Political Thought - My health care anecdata
Submitted By: The Provocateur – American Spectator - The Scott Heard Round the World
Submitted By: Wolf Howling – YouTube - Martin Luther King “I have a dream”

Chaos in Nigeria

There's violence in pockets of Nigeria and the government has moved to quell the violence before it spreads.

The Federal Government has moved to prevent total breakdown of law and order following renewed fighting in Jos, Plateau State.

Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan yesterday ordered the deployment of troops in the troubled areas, while states in Northern Nigeria have been placed on red alert.

This comes as the Governor of Plateau State, David Jonah Jang, imposed a 24-hour curfew to stop violence from spiralling out of control.


The dispute started following a misunderstanding between a Muslim and a Christian and now threatens to turn into a full race war.

Appearance Alert

I'll be on with Wyatt Mcintyre of Voice of the Opposition, who recently did a piece on Dr. Chacko, talking about Dr. Chacko's case on his blog talk radio show. The show will be tomorrow evening starting at 7PM Central Time. It will stream live over the internet and then be available at this link thereafter.

New Earthquake in Haiti

There was a new earthquake in Haiti.

A strong magnitude 6.1 aftershock struck Haiti. Its epicenter was 36 miles west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, the United States Geological Survey said.

The damage has yet to be assessed but everyone can imagine.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

The Political Tsunami Is Here

There's nearly 70% of the vote counted and Scott Brown is ahead by seven points. Because Massachusetts had no exit polls, I don't know when there will be an official call. So, I will make mine. Scott Brown is the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts.

The first thing that everyone should know is that the Democratic party is beginning to eat its own. Everyone within the Democratic party is pointing a finger at each other.

The Democratic Party collapsed into a circular firing squad while waiting for election returns from Massachusetts Tuesday, with everyone from Martha Coakley's pollster to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi taking shots at other Democrats.

The not-so-implicit premise: Democrats will lose the seat Ted Kennedy held for more than four decades.

While Democratic Senate insiders and some White House officials are blaming their own party’s nominee for a lackluster campaign that let Republican Scott Brown frame the race, Pelosi suggested Tuesday that her Senate counterparts shared part of the blame.

"We're always in touch with our members," Pelosi said at an afternoon press conference. "In the House, we don't have surprises when it comes to elections."

There is absolute chaos in the Democratic party. With chaos, that means nothing gets done. They can say what they want but if the Coakley campaign is blaming Obama and the national party. The national party is blaming the Coakley campaign. Nancy Pelosi is saying she's not out of touch.

So, while the Democrats begin the long and painful process of finger pointing, there won't be much time for health care reform. With Brown as the 41st vote, the Democrats won't be able to get this bill through the Senate. The only way to do this would be for the House to vote for the Senate's bill. That won't happen because Bart Stupak isn't happy with the abortion language. That's only the first problem.

The Democrats can talk about all the legislative tricks: reconciliation, voting before seating Brown, etc. but not only would that be political suicide but it won't happen.

Obama's liberal agenda has officially come to an end. From here, the president can decide what he wants to do with his presidency. If he wants to continue to ram through liberal and far left policies, he'll be, by far, the worst president we've ever had. He'll get nothing done. He'll leave an economy in shambles, a homeland vulnerable, and the world very dangerous.

On the other hand, he can take these results as a message. What happens going forward is entirely in his hands. Bill Clinton showed that stunning defeats can turn into political victories in the future. Obama's liberal agenda has been dying a slow and painful death since the summer. It's now officially dead. We'll see what the president does in its aftermath.