Niger Coup

The situation in Niger continues to disintegrate.

Niger's military plans to run the uranium-exporting country until politicians agree on a new constitution and are ready for fresh elections, West Africa's regional mediator said after meeting the junta on Sunday.

No timeframe has been set for the transition back to civilian rule but a spokesman for the junta said on Sunday that elections would be held "as soon as possible" and the situation was similar to a coup in 1999 that led to transparent elections.

This follows the military's ouster of Mamadou Tandja the Prime Minister last week. That followed months of wrangling between Tandja and the opposition. The military says they will run the government until a political settlement is reached.

Chaos in Nigeria

There's violence in pockets of Nigeria and the government has moved to quell the violence before it spreads.

The Federal Government has moved to prevent total breakdown of law and order following renewed fighting in Jos, Plateau State.

Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan yesterday ordered the deployment of troops in the troubled areas, while states in Northern Nigeria have been placed on red alert.

This comes as the Governor of Plateau State, David Jonah Jang, imposed a 24-hour curfew to stop violence from spiralling out of control.

The dispute started following a misunderstanding between a Muslim and a Christian and now threatens to turn into a full race war.

Analyzing Obama's Accra Speech

This was one of the best speeches that President Obama has given in my opinion. There was none of the moral equivalencies, America bashing, and straw man arguments that President Obama has grown far too fond of using in other speeches. First, here's some of my favorite portions.

So I do not see the countries and peoples of Africa as a world apart; I see Africa as a fundamental part of our interconnected world – as partners with America on behalf of the future that we want for all our children. That partnership must be grounded in mutual responsibility, and that is what I want to speak with you about today.

...

It is easy to point fingers, and to pin the blame for these problems on others. Yes, a colonial map that made little sense bred conflict, and the West has often approached Africa as a patron, rather than a partner. But the West is not responsible for the destruction of the Zimbabwean economy over the last decade, or wars in which children are enlisted as combatants. In my father’s life, it was partly tribalism and patronage in an independent Kenya that for a long stretch derailed his career, and we know that this kind of corruption is a daily fact of life for far too many.

Of course, we also know that is not the whole story. Here in Ghana, you show us a face of Africa that is too often overlooked by a world that sees only tragedy or the need for charity. The people of Ghana have worked hard to put democracy on a firmer footing, with peaceful transfers of power even in the wake of closely contested elections. And with improved governance and an emerging civil society, Ghana’s economy has shown impressive rates of growth.

This progress may lack the drama of the 20th century’s liberation struggles, but make no mistake: it will ultimately be more significant. For just as it is important to emerge from the control of another nation, it is even more important to build one’s own.

...

This is about more than holding elections – it’s also about what happens between them. Repression takes many forms, and too many nations are plagued by problems that condemn their people to poverty. No country is going to create wealth if its leaders exploit the economy to enrich themselves, or police can be bought off by drug traffickers. No business wants to invest in a place where the government skims 20 percent off the top, or the head of the Port Authority is corrupt. No person wants to live in a society where the rule of law gives way to the rule of brutality and bribery. That is not democracy, that is tyranny, and now is the time for it to end.

In the 21st century, capable, reliable and transparent institutions are the key to success – strong parliaments and honest police forces; independent judges and journalists; a vibrant private sector and civil society. Those are the things that give life to democracy, because that is what matters in peoples’ lives.

...

Now let me be clear: Africa is not the crude caricature of a continent at war. But for far too many Africans, conflict is a part of life, as constant as the sun. There are wars over land and wars over resources. And it is still far too easy for those without conscience to manipulate whole communities into fighting among faiths and tribes.

These conflicts are a millstone around Africa’s neck. We all have many identities – of tribe and ethnicity; of religion and nationality. But defining oneself in opposition to someone who belongs to a different tribe, or who worships a different prophet, has no place in the 21st century. Africa’s diversity should be a source of strength, not a cause for division. We are all God’s children. We all share common aspirations – to live in peace and security; to access education and opportunity; to love our families, our communities, and our faith. That is our common humanity.

...

Freedom is your inheritance. Now, it is your responsibility to build upon freedom’s foundation. And if you do, we will look back years from now to places like Accra and say that this was the time when the promise was realized – this was the moment when prosperity was forged; pain was overcome; and a new era of progress began. This can be the time when we witness the triumph of justice once more.

Throughout the speech, I thought that President Obama spoke much like Bill Cosby does to the African American community. Just as Cosby says that it's time for African Americans to stop using prior wrongs as an excuse to live life poorly, so too did President Obama say that prior wrongs done on the continent by outsiders are no excuse for what is happening now in the continent.

Africa has a long and terrible history of oppression, slavery, and colonialism. That history has lead drawing lines of sovereignty that have a lot less to do with history and relationships and lot more to do with the naive randomness that outside colonials dreamed up in their heads. While President Obama acknowledged this terrible history and its weight on current African society, he said firmly that this was no excuse for corruption, tyranny, and the broken societies that this leads to.

President Obama laid out four pillars to transforming the continent: better governance, more opportunity for economic growth, better health care, and a decrease and ultimate end to conflicts.

Anyone that knows anything about the current politics and geopolitics of Africa knows that all four are symbiotic. For instance, there can be no economic opportunity in a country full of government corruption. Africa is gripped in an AIDS crisis and this a direct result of corrupt governments standing by while that disease took hold.

In fact, you could even say the last three are a by product of the first. President Obama is further right that an isolated election here and there does NOT make for good governance. Herein lies the rub. While the president recognizes the complexities of good governance, especially in the African nation, and pledges to support all such governments, it will take more than one good speech to make this happen. That's been our policy for decades but the continent simply refuses to take anything more than marginal steps toward this.

Of course, there can be no economic opportunity in countries run by corrupt governments. A former client spent a lot of time working for Motorola in the Phillipines. Motorola has a strict policy of never being a part of any corruption. That's no easy task in the Phillipines. As such, intermediaries were often used for pay offs so that Motorola was never directly part of any pay offs. Ask any citizen of any third world nation and you will always find obscene corruption: pay offs are a part of doing business.

AIDS exploded in Africa for several reasons. First, men simply thought it was weak to wear condoms. Truckers travelled the region having sex with any women they could find and then in fect their wives when they got back home. Beyond this, the governments are so corrupt that they were simply ill equipped to handle the virus as it spread. Instead, these governments often joined in propaganda campaigns claiming that AIDS simply didn't exist.

Of course, conflicts are often all too normal reality on this continent because it's ruled almost entirely by either strongmen or by weak and corrupt governments. (or in the case of Somalia, no government) Too many of the second lead directly internal conflicts that often spill outside their borders. So, in the last twenty years Ethiopia, Somalia, the Congo and the Sudan are just some of the African nations that have experienced conflict.

While the president did an excellent job of laying out the problems, he was short and vague on solutions. Of course, that's natural. The solutions can't possibly be summed up in any reasonable way in a speech that was about a half hour. The solutions can be laid out in a speech but it will take hard work, not yet seen, to resolve them. So, while I commend the president on an excellent speech that identifies many of the problems on the continent, and lays out in broad strokes the solutions. It will be, as the president himself pointed out, up to the African continent to follow through and lift itself up. We can only be there to support those that support freedom, democracy and good governance. (something the president also said)

full audio here.

Propaganda and the South African AIDS Crisis

Introduction: When I was a stock broker, the legendary stockbroker Wil Rondini followed a company by the name of Female Health Care Corp. His pitch relates to the piece that follows and so here is the beginning....

Back in the 1500's, the Black Plagues swept through Europe. It took nearly a century for the population to regain their pre Black Plague levels. Now, AIDS is sweeping through Africa. The World Health Organization predicts that by 2003 one in four people will have AIDS in South Africa. Unfortunately, in these male dominated societies, traditional forms of contraception are simply impossible. That's why a company just down the road from here has created the female condom...

In response to this piece about the Grady Hospital mess, I received this comment.

Read this about kevin. He is not your friend.

http://www.californiaconservative.org/academia/hiv-aids-gallos-egg/

Kevin is Kevin Kuritzky, the subject of the piece, and the piece referenced by this commenter is by an individual named Clark Baker. Baker is loosely affiliated with a group of scientists and other medical experts that have hypothesized that AIDS and the HIV virus don't exist. The group is lead by a doctor and a journalist, Celia Farber and Dr. Peter Duesberg, and both have written extensively hypothesizing that HIV does NOT cause AIDS. Both were subject of an award by the Semmelweis Society. This is what Kevin Kuritzky along with his colleague Jim Murtaugh objected to. This is what caused Baker, a former police officer in Los Angeles, to write this scathing critique of Kuritzky.

For his part, Kuritzky said that any attack by Baker or anyone in his group is a badge of honor. To me, the debate over the existence of AIDS is beneath me. That said, the spread of AIDS throughout the Sub Sahara Africa and especially in South Africa, and wittingly or unwittingly this group played their own small role in allowing the government of South Africa to look the other way.

The statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO) are stunning. They estimate that 80% of males between 18-35 are afflicted with the HIV virus. Some of the problems have to do with the culture that Rondini talked about. The demographics of South Africa are such that blacks account for almost 80% of the population while whites account for just less than 10%. Of course, years of Apartheid left much of the black population uneducated and poor. The so called male dominated societies that Rondini spoke of simply meant males that were promiscuous and refused to wear condoms. Many of them were married and after they visited numerous prostitutes they invariably passed the disease along to their spouses and often to then to their unborn children.

Throughout the late 1980's and 1990's this disease was gripping the country and the Sub Sahara around it. The ruling governments of South Africa and its neighbors were looking for any propaganda that would allow them to look the other way while this disease gripped the country. Here is the position of then President Mbeki in 2001.

President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa has written to Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, ordering her to consider a cut in the AIDS budget. He claims to have discovered World Health Organisation (WHO) statistics from 1995 on the Internet showing that HIV/AIDS causes only a relatively tiny number of deaths in
South Africa—2,653.

Mbeki cynically warned her that the figures would “provoke a howl of displeasure and a concerted propaganda campaign from those who have convinced themselves that HIV/AIDS is the single biggest cause of death in our country.” He continued, “These are the people whose prejudices led them to discover the false reality, among other things, that we are running out of space in our cemeteries as a result of unprecedented deaths caused by HIV/AIDS.

“Nevertheless, whatever the intensity of the hostile propaganda that might be provoked by the WHO statistics, we cannot allow that government policy and programmes should be informed by misperceptions, however widespread and well-established they may seem to be.”

This is where both Dr. Duesberg and Dr. Farber became unwitting accomplices in their propaganda. Dr. Duesberg wrote several books in the late 1980's and 1990's denying the existence of AIDS. Their theories were embedded in another hypothesis that most gays were also heavy drug users and their so called "AIDS", as Dr. Duesberg at least saw it, was usually simply the degeneration of the body from years of drug use. This theory, laced with homophobia, became the perfect tool for any government looking to deflect any responsibility for dealing with the disease. (a government just like that of South Africa) These books along with much of his other statement became the subject of propaganda for the South African government. Here is what Dr. Duesberg said at one such conference.

According to the WHO's Weekly Epidemiological Records, the whole continent of Africa has generated between 1991 and 1999 a rather steady yield of 60,000 to 90,000 AIDS cases annually, on average about 75,000 (WHO's Weekly Epidemiological Records since 1991). Based on the last available data from South Africa, 8,976 cases were reported there between 1994 and 1996 by the WHO, corresponding to about 4,500 cases per year (WHO's Weekly Epidemiological Records 1998 and 1995). The WHO does not report how many of these cases are deaths, how many survive with, and how many recover from AIDS.

However, it is evident from the WHO data that the African AIDS epidemic is not following the bell-shaped curve of an exponential rise and subsequent sharp drop with immunity, that are typical of infectious epidemics. Instead it drags on like a
nutritionally or environmentally caused disease (Seligmann et al., 1984), that steadily affects, what appears to be only a very small percentage of the African population.

Given a current African population of 616 million (United Nations Environment Programme, June 15, 2000), and an average of 75,000 African AIDS cases per year, it follows that only 0.012% of the African population is annually suffering or dying from AIDS. Likewise only 0.01% of the South African population was suffering from AIDS between 1994 and 1996, based on the 4,500 annual cases and a population of approximately 44 million (US Agency for International Development, "HIV/AIDS in the developing World", May 1999). This means that the new African AIDS epidemic only represents a very small fraction of normal African mortality.

Dr. Duesberg then went on to make the case that AIDS is not real because it doesn't follow the same statistical models as all other epidemics. (you can read the entire diatrobe by clicking the link provided) This sort of hypothesis along with his book, Inventing the AIDS Virus, were used by the South African government for more than a decade as part of a well coordinated propaganda machine so that they could sit by and do nothing while their population repeated the pandameic of the Black Plagues that Wil Rondini spoke of.

It was only in the last two years that the government finally acknowledged the crisis.It was only in the last few years that the South African government finally acknowledged the crisis that is killing off their population.

The South African government yesterday announced a dramatic reversal of its approach to the country's Aids crisis, promising increased availability of drugs and endorsing the efforts of civic groups battling the disease.

"We must take our fight against Aids to a much higher level," the deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, told a conference of Aids activists, who until recently had been ignored and even denounced by the government. "We must tighten up so that ARV [antiretroviral] drugs are more accessible, especially to the poor. Education and prevention of HIV infection must be scaled up. Our people want us to unite on this issue in the best interests of the health and wellbeing of our nation. Working together we can defeat this disease," she said to cheers from a crowd of health professionals, church leaders and labour officials.

Experts said the government's policy change could save thousands of lives. An estimated 5.4 million of South Africa's 47 million people are infected with HIV, one of the highest ratios in the world. "This is a sea change," said Mark Heywood, director of the Aids Law Project. "We're not across the ocean yet, but now the government is sailing in the right direction."

Of course, after looking the other way for nearly two decades while the disease gripped their nation, the measure maybe too little too late. No doubt AIDS deniers like Duesberg and Farber played their small roles in killing millions.

Zimbabwe Election Results In

After more than a month, the election results are finally in.

Zimbabwe's opposition party is proposing sharing power with President Robert Mugabe's ruling party, but not with Mugabe.

Opposition leader Tendai Biti rejects official results calling for a presidential runoff and says the only way to resolve the impasse is with a "government of national healing."

He told reporters the opposition's presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai should form a unity government but that Mugabe should surrender power.

Official results released Friday said Tsvangirai won 47.9 percent of the vote to Mugabe's 43.2 percent.

This sets up a run off election between the two. The conventional wisdom has been that Mughabe has delayed the results in order to intimidate his opponents before the run off. We will continue to track.

Mughabe Turns Up the Heat

Robert Mughabe continued his campaign of intimidation.

Armed riot police raided the headquarters of Zimbabwe's main opposition
party on Friday and detained scores of people in the biggest crackdown on the
MDC since disputed elections last month, officials said.

The Movement for Democratic Change says its leader Morgan Tsvangirai beat President Robert Mugabe in the March 29 vote, and initial results showed it had also ended the ruling party's 28-year hold on parliament.

A delay to the presidential result and a recount of some parliamentary votes has brought growing international pressure on Mugabe, 84, and stoked fears of bloodshed in a country already suffering an economic collapse.

Dozens of riot police detained around 100 MDC supporters who were taken away in a crowded police bus, a Reuters witness said. The MDC said 200 to 250 police took part in the raid and they also took away computers used by the election command centre.

Meanwhile, the election results have still not been announced. Keep in mind there will likely be a run off because of convoluted Zimbabwean election laws that no one really understands. Also, keep in mind that there is three weeks between the time that results are announced and the new election. Mughabe continues to withhold the election results while he continues his brazen campaign of intimidating and arresting the opposition. The world has stood largely silent while Mughabe has brazenly run a campaign of terror and intimidation while also brazenly refusing to announce the election results. The UN, the AU, and most world leaders have been silent despite the systematic violation of human rights by a vicious dictator desperate to hold onto power.


You can help the opposition by visiting here and lending your support.

Zimbabwe and Fan Umpires

Have you ever watched a baseball game when an umpire totally blew the call? You have thousands of screaming fans acting as umpires. Invariably, you will have an announcer proclaim that there is only one opinion that counts, the real umpire. That's what I thought of when I read this piece.

South Africa — The Zimbabwean opposition leader won his nation's disputed presidential election, the top U.S. envoy to Africa told reporters Thursday.

The opposition has claimed its leader Morgan Tsvangirai beat Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe outright March 29. Independent Zimbabwean observers also say Tsvangirai won, though not by enough to avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, Zimbabweans still await the results, with the opposition accusing Mugabe of withholding them while he plots how to keep power. The octogenarian Mugabe has led Zimbabwe since independence in 1980.

If you have been following the aftermath of the Zimbabwean elections, it should come as no surprise that the opposition leader did in fact get more votes, if votes were counted fairly. Of course, he did. If Mughabe had won, the results would have been announced immediately. On the other hand, he didn't win and thus more than three weeks later results are still not in. Thus, we have the top U.S. envoy saying something close followers already know. Yet, just like with the bad call in baseball, there is only one opinion that counts and that opinion hasn't been rendered.

The U.S. envoy can state the obvious but in the meantime Mughabe refuses to release the official results. He is doing this likely because there will be a runoff and there are three weeks between the official results being released and the runoff. In the meantime, he is intimidating and killing so that the run off elections have a different result than what the U.S. envoy sees from the initial elections.

Three Weeks and Counting: Zimbabwe on the Brink

It has been three weeks since the elections in Zimbabwe and still the results are not in.

Zimbabwe’s election crisis continues, three weeks after a vote that seemingly brought an end to the rule of President Robert Mugabe. But official results of that election have still not been released, and election officials have announced plans for a recount of both the presidential and parliamentary votes in 23 districts. In a separate development, the Mugabe government has accused opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai of treason, saying that he plotted with former colonial power Britain to force regime change in Zimbabwe.

There is a great line in the movie Blood Diamonds "this is Africa". What is currently happening in Zimbabwe represents that statement to a T. Much of this has to do with nothing more than political gamesmanship. Only in the United States, political gamesmanship involves legislative stunts and posturing. In Africa, it involves intimidation, mass arrests, and even murder.

Obviously, I can't get into anyone's head however here is what I surmise is going on. It appears that there will be a run off election between Mughabe and his opponent, Tsvangirari. A run off happens three weeks after election results are announced for an initial election. It appears that Mughabe is stalling and in the meantime he is strong arming and intimidating anyone he can so that the runoff go his way.

We have already heard about a mass raid of a hotel that held reporters in the immediate aftermath of the election. Furthermore, troops are storming the country trying to intimidate the citizenry.

Zimbabwean soldiers went house to house in a poor suburb of the capital Harare on Friday, beating up men and youths shortly before embattled President Robert Mugabe was due to give his first address to the nation since last month's elections.

What is happening is nothing short of a dictator imposing his will so that he sways the elections while the world watches. Like I said...this is Africa.

Zimbabwe on the Edge

This article paints a rather grim picture...

Zimbabwe’s opposition on Saturday accused President Robert Mugabe of
deploying militias for a war to reverse the result of last weekend’s
election.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai said Mugabe was ”preparing a war on the people” and deploying loyal forces, including liberation war veterans, ahead of a presidential runoff vote."

Militants are being rehabilitated,” Tsvangirai told a press conference, adding that the central bank was printing money ”for the finance of violence”.

...

Under electoral law a presidential runoff must be held three weeks after results are released. So the longer the results take, the more time [Robert Mugabe's party] ZANU-PF has to organize.

Analysts believe Mugabe will use his control of state apparatus, including the security forces, as well as pro-government militias to intimidate MDC supporters.

Past readers of my work know that this situation is starting to look an awful lot like the near genocide in Kenya. It is clear that Mugabe will do whatever is necessary to hold onto power. It is also clear that violence and corruption are two things he is very familiar with and thus will be in his reportoire now.

Zimbabwe Again on the Brink

Yesterday, I actually believed that Robert Mugabe would cede power following his decisive loss in the elections over the past weekend. I guess I forgot the nature of the tyrant and expected him to act like something he isn't. Now, comes word that paramilitary have raided a hotel used by the opposition.

Raids on opposition party offices and the rounding up of foreign journalists are threatening to push Zimbabwe further toward confrontation between current President Robert Mugabe and the apparent winner of national elections.

Police raided the Meikles hotel, which is used by the opposition, Movement for Democratic Change, and ransacked some of the rooms. Riot police also surrounded another hotel housing foreign journalists, York Lodge, and took away several of them, according to a man who answered the phone there.

"Mugabe has started a crackdown," Movement for Democratic Change secretary-general Tendai Biti told The Associated Press. "It is quite clear he has unleashed a war."

Things remain tense in Zimbabwe and they could easily descend into civil war like it did in Kenya.

Mugabe Officially Out in Zimbabwe

The word from the AP is that the challenger in the race has declared victory...

The main opposition party claimed outright victory Wednesday for its leader Morgan Tsvangirai, saying he had won 50.3 percent of the vote compared to 43.8 percent for President Robert Mugabe.

The ruling ZANU-PF party rejected the opposition's claims, saying that it would await the full results from the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, which has not yet published the outcome of Saturday's presidential poll.

Mugabe's reign of terror on that nation is difficult to quantify. When he took over Zimbabwe was on its way toward economic prosperity. Here is how one article described the difference...

When Mafu arrived in Makokoba, Bulawayo was still a prosperous city dominated by the white-owned businesses and farms that made Zimbabwe one of Africa's richest regions. Two years ago, as President Mugabe's land grab destroyed the economy, Mafu lost his job as a cleaner.

"When the Europeans were here, we could cope," he said. "I had money to buy food and a clinic handed out free drugs. Now we have no jobs, no income, inflation is 1,000 per cent and when we go to hospital they ask us for money. If we have none, we are turned away."

The Zimbabwean Health Ministry has conceded that 63 people died of starvation in Bulawayo last month. According to a prominent critic of the government, Archbishop Pius Ncube of Bulawayo, the real figure is many times higher. He estimates that 1,000 people die from lack of food each month around Bulawayo alone.

Mugabe managed to destroy most of Zimbabwe's natural resources and with it the economy at large. Just recently, their inflation rate passed 100,000%. Of course, Mugabe's reign of terror spread throughout Zimbabwe's society. He subverted civil rights, created abject poverty, and confronted all adversaries with a heavy handed approach.

Hopefully, this is the dawn of a new day in Zimbabwe.

Mughabe to Cede Power?

That is the speculative word from the Associated Press...

Advisers of President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai are discussing the possibility of Zimbabwe's longtime leader relinquishing power, The Associated Press learned Tuesday.

Independent observers say trends indicate Tsvangirai won the most votes in the presidential race, but not enough to avoid a runoff — a prospect that could be humiliating to the 84-year-old president.

No returns from Saturday's presidential vote have been made public, fueling fears of rigging. Mugabe has been accused of stealing past elections, though that was before Zimbabwe's economy collapsed and leading members of his own party openly defied him.

A person close to the Electoral Commission told the AP that Mugabe has been informed he is far behind Tsvangirai in preliminary election results, and that there could be an uprising if Mugabe were declared the winner. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said aides to both men were discussing Mugabe's ceding power.

This would be welcomed news. Mughabe has run that country so deep into the ground that its inflation rate recently topped 100,000% no misprint. Also, unlesses he cedes power, there will likely be the sort of violence that we saw in the aftermath of the Kenyan elections.

Zimbabwe On the Brink

Tensions are mounting in Zimbabwe as the election results still haven't been taliied.

Riot police in armored carriers were deployed in two of Harare's restive townships on Monday night amid long delays in issuing Zimbabwe's election results which have raised tensions.

A resident of one of the townships, opposition strongholds, said a convoy of riot police in about 20 vehicles moved through the area.

"There are a lot of patrols here," said the resident, adding people had been told to stay off the streets.

Concern grew that long delays in issuing the election results hid attempts by President Robert Mugabe to cling to power by rigging.

More than 48 hours after polls closed, only 66 of 210 parliamentary constituencies had been declared, showing Mugabe's ZANU-PF party one seat ahead of the main opposition MDC. Two of his ministers lost their seats.

Zimbabwe is on the brink of being the second African nation in less than six months to face chaos following elections. In December, riots broke out in Kenya following what many thought were rigged elections. That crisis was averted when the two opponents in the election agreed to a powersharing arrangement. More than one thousand people died in the fighting that broke out prior to the agreement.

Zimbabwe the Next Kenya?

Election results still haven't been announced in Zimbabwe's election from yesterday

Tension has been mounting in Zimbabwe's capital as the country's election commission refused to announce the results of Saturday's poll, fuelling rumours that President Robert Mugabe had lost despite widespread vote-rigging, and was planning to declare victory regardless.

...

Security forces were deployed in Harare on Sunday, hours after the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) announced that it had won the presidential and parliamentary elections despite widespread vote-rigging.

George Charamba, Mr Mugabe's spokesman, warned Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader: "He announces results, declares himself and the MDC winner and then what? Declare himself president of Zimbabwe? It is called a coup d'état and we all know how coups are handled."

Mughabe has ruled Zimbabwe since the early 1980's. The economy is in such dire straits that it's inflation rate reached 100,000%. He was facing a stiff challenge in this campaign and delays in the results immediately raise the suspicion of funny business. When Kenya faced similar conditions it nearly lead to genocide. The situation remains fluid.

Kenya in Crisis Day 66: The Aftermath

It has only been a couple of days since the power sharing agreement was reached and so it is too early to assess its effectiveness. Instead, let's see what is being reported in the media.Here is a story about the UN's role in Kenya.

Kofi Annan used all his negotiating skills to work out a power-sharing deal over Kenya's contested presidential election. If the former U.N. secretary-general hadn't stepped in, African Union and U.N. officials acknowledge, they wouldn't have known what to do next.

A spokesman for the top opposition leader, Raila Odinga, told The Associated Press the lack of a U.N. backup plan highlights a need to give nations more and earlier election assistance.

"The United Nations should recognize that elections in countries such as ours are always flash points of potential violence," said opposition spokesman Salim Lone, a former U.N. official. "Often the rigging begins well before election day, and to show up just before polling starts is quite inadequate."

This New York Times article states the obvious...tourism has suffered since the meltdown

Nancy Holan just had the safari of her life. She and a friend flew to Kenya from Detroit and as they cruised the wide open plains, they had the lions, zebras and elephants all to themselves.

“It was wonderful,” she said.

Not far away, Isaac Rotich, a high-end safari guide, paced an empty game lodge in freshly polished safari boots. He can spot a six-inch lizard 50 feet away, and tell you the name — in Kiswahili, English and Latin — of the plant it is sitting on. He has spent years building this career and was making $30,000 a year, a king’s ransom in these parts.

Now he is afraid of losing it all.

“We’re hurting, big time,” Mr. Rotich said

.

Finally, the new leadership is attempting to be diplomatic.

Prime Minister-designate Raila Odinga of Kenya has pledged to help those affected by the political standoff over President Mwai Kibaki's election.

Odinga vowed to help bring Kenyans together after the post-election violence that left about 1,500 people dead and displaced thousands, the BBC reported Saturday.

The situation remains fluid...

Kenya In Crisis Day 62: Power Sharing Agreement Reached

All the details have been ironed out and a formal power sharing agreement has been reached.

Kenya's political leaders ended a two month standoff on Thursday that had plunged this country into violence, reaching a long-sought agreement to share power between the government and the opposition.

The country seemed to let out a collective hooray as Mwai Kibaki, the president, and Raila Odinga, the top opposition leader, sat down at a desk in front of the president's office, with a bank of television cameras rolling, and signed an agreement that creates a powerful prime minister position for Odinga and splits cabinet positions between
the government and the opposition.

There are still many thorny issues to resolve, among them how the government will function with essentially two bosses. There is also a deeply divided country to heal. More than 1,000 Kenyans have been killed and hundreds of thousands driven from their homes in an uncharacteristic burst of violence set off by a deeply flawed election in December. Much of the fighting, like the voting, has been along ethnic lines.

Now comes the sixty four thousand dollar question...will this have any practical effect in quelling the violence. That is still left to be determined. As the article mentions, there are still thorny issues to resolve and one of those is the issue of armed men with machetes looking to commit violence on tribal grounds.

Kenya in Crisis Day 59: Is the Power Sharing Agreement Unconstitutional and Undemocratic

It is unclear what has happened to the power sharing agreement that folks like Kofi Annan said would be wrapped up and finalized by yesterday. As we wait for this agreement to be reached, it is time to examine the wisdom of this agreement. Here is the view from one expert in the region.

The tradition in any sovereign nation is to have a government that must operate on the foundation that is constitutional. America is known to believe in the rule of law. All laws are based upon the constitution. Bush is asking the Kenyan government that is established under a constitution and laws to ignore the tradition of laws which they, the United States, values.

By asking the government to ignore the constitution and create agreements which go against the very foundation on which Kenya’s democratic principles stand Bush is contradicting the very essence of America’s foreign policy: encouraging states to uphold democratic principles.

Democracy is not just voting, democracy is rule of law, laws founded on constitutions. It is these contradictions that give America a bad name. A double standard that supports the Israeli aggression and disregard of human rights and fighting Palestinians when they democratically elect their leaders. The same kind of policies that rejects the Kenyan government efforts to deal with hooligans who have used the 2008 election to burn businesses, rape women and displace children, and move to remove through violence legitimate land owners in the rift valley. If this is bush’s definition of democracy then Kenyans better stick to African socialism and the rule of the chief.

This is the sort of utopian and theoretical view that is frankly quite dangerous when analyzing this sort of crisis. I have my problems with the power sharing agreement. I see this crisis as having a very strong element of tribalism, class warfare, as well as criminality, and I don't know that a power sharing agreement will help relieve those tensions. That said, to claim it is unconstitutional, is dangerous even if it is technically correct (and maybe especially since it is technically correct). The country is on the brink of full tribal genocide and here we have a commentator focusing on whether or not an agreement meant to stop the genocide is within the keeping of the Constitution.

That is an idea that is beside the point right now, in my opinion. The Constitution is no suicide pact and furthermore it certainly didn't save this country from the crisis it is in. In fact, the current leader, Mwai Kibaki, used an obscure law within the Constitution to quickly swear himself in while the mess surrounding the vote was still being sorted out. Whether or not this agreement is or is not constitutional seems an issue to be resolved when armed gangs of men with machetes are no longer roaming the streets of Kenya. The only thing that should be relevant to anyone now is how to stop the violence that is gripping the country.

A Constitution is worthless if the folks on the street have no safety. What really makes this arguement infuriating is its implicit indictment of the United States. Once again, we have anti American arguement that twists our foreign policy beyond all recognition. The U.S. is again blamed for the lack of civil society in another country that has once again created chaos. Certainly in a perfect world, we would like every country to follow its own Constitution at all times. The situation in Kenya is anything but a perfect world and thus our foreign policy has become pragmatic to realize that. We would also like to recognize the duly elected government of every nation as well, however when a territory, not even a nation, elects a terrorist group we once again must act with pragmatism.

It seems the perspective of this author is that the U.S. recognize terror, chaos, violence and death in our inflexible pursuit of seeing Democracy flourish all over the world. If we don't, not only is this nation hypocritical but the rightly recipient of venom throughout the world. It is time for world leaders, academics, and pundits to realize the shortfalls and misgivings of other nations. When nations elected terrrorists, there are consequences, and when elections lead to the brink of genocide there are also consequences. Those are not situations that the U.S. created. We must deal with them, but it takes pragmatism and that pragmatism must not only be recognized but respected. To use that pragmatism as an opportunity to further an anti American agenda will not be tolerated or overlooked, not by me at least.

Kenya in Crisis Day 57: Political Deal on the Horizon?

Published reports have deal being imminent between the government and the opposition in Kenya.





A political deal to end Kenya's deadly postelection crisis is expected by Friday, with the two sides having largely agreed on a new government structure, including a prime minister's post, officials said Thursday.
The prime minister's post is a major demand of the opposition, which accuses President Mwai Kibaki of stealing the Dec. 27 election. The agreement could mark a breakthrough in a political crisis that has unleashed weeks of violence leaving more than 1,000 people dead



Meanwhile, while there continues to be violence throughout the country, many on the ground report the situation improving. According to the website Ushahidi, several towns and cities report improving security situation.

In the past few days the security situation has really improved. The communities here are going on with efforts to restore peace through the elders and the clergy. Most of the youth have been advised to restrain from any violence as the negotiation go ahead. The area was tense yesterday from the news that the government side had written to KOFFI ANNAN protesting his statement to the members of parliament on a coalition government. The hopes of many, lies with the negotiation being spearheaded by the former united nation¢s secretary general H.E KOFFI ANNAN.

Due to the area being cosmopolitan, the youth who are the majority have split themselves to groups according to there ethnic backgrounds so as to provide security to their community members who have not fled the area.

...and

The Eldoret Pyramid of Peace is now mounted strategically in front of theEldoret Municipal Council Town Hall to serve as a monument to mark thestart of peace initiative in the region - thanks to a successful eventheld to day. The white painted Pyramid with catchy words "PYRAMID OFPEACE" is attracting alot of attention in the town with the white roseflowers placed round the pyramid in three layers. It signifies peace,peace and peace.

...though not everywhere is experiencing a calming, in Kakamega the situation has shown an increasing tenseness...

Chaos have erupted in Kakamega following an emotional return of the people displaced from Naivasha and Nakuru areas. A lorry full of the IDPs has raised emotions in an otherwise calm Saturday afternoon. Running battles have ensued in the town with marauding youths trying to invade the Kakamega Police Station where majority of the people displaced from the larger Western Province are residing.

The situation remains fluid and all interested parties will be watching to see if the deal is finalized tomorrow, and if in fact this deal is the breakthrough everyone has been looking for.

Zimbabwe's Inflation Now 100,00%

Yes, you did read that correctly.

The year-on-year inflation rate for the month of January 2008, as measured by the all items Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 100,580.2 per cent, gaining 34,367.9 percentage points on the December rate of 66,212.3 per cent," the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said.

"This means that prices as measured by the all items CPI increased by an average of 100,580.2 per cent between January 2007 and January 2008."

"Inflation of food and non-alcoholic beverages reached 105,428.0 per cent while non-food inflation was 97,885.7 per cent."

The rule of Robert Mughabe, since the early '80's, will be remembered for the systematic subversion of civil rights, the dismantling of unions, and of course taking a once promising economy to the brink of total collapse.

I remember attending a meeting on the civil rights situation in Zimbabwe. The one thing I remember was that Mughabe instituted a law in which any meeting of three or more people was no longer legal. This is the sort of systematic violation of civil rights that Mughabe has perpetuated since taking over.

Zimbabwe continues to be one of many African nations in dire straits, and I believe the world is sitting by while our next sphere of disaster bubbles to the surface.

Kenya in Crisis Day 57: Power Sharing=Peace?

President Bush backed the power sharing plan currently being negotiated today.

The United States President George W. Bush on Saturday urged an end to political clashes in Kenya over the disputed presidential elections in December by opting for a power-sharing strategy.

He added that he will have his secretary of state visit Kenya to convey his message to the region that erupted in conflict because of the dispute between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga.

A thousand people have been killed and at least 600,000 have fled their homes during the weeks of ethnic clashes between the supporters of the two parties in the Eastern African state.

This plan looked like it had been agreed to in principle about a week ago and has since stalled. I continue to be of the mind that a political power sharing plan will do little to settle a situation that has turned tribal, classed, and criminal. I continue to believe that those that are committing violence care very little about seeing some sort of a compromised government. It appears to me at least that certain elements saw a vacuum and used that vacuum as an opportunity to cause chaos and violence.

The situation remains tenuous. The agreement that everyone is hinging everything on continues to be in limbo and the violence continues in the meantime.