Kenya In Crisis Day 62: Power Sharing Agreement Reached

All the details have been ironed out and a formal power sharing agreement has been reached.

Kenya's political leaders ended a two month standoff on Thursday that had plunged this country into violence, reaching a long-sought agreement to share power between the government and the opposition.

The country seemed to let out a collective hooray as Mwai Kibaki, the president, and Raila Odinga, the top opposition leader, sat down at a desk in front of the president's office, with a bank of television cameras rolling, and signed an agreement that creates a powerful prime minister position for Odinga and splits cabinet positions between
the government and the opposition.

There are still many thorny issues to resolve, among them how the government will function with essentially two bosses. There is also a deeply divided country to heal. More than 1,000 Kenyans have been killed and hundreds of thousands driven from their homes in an uncharacteristic burst of violence set off by a deeply flawed election in December. Much of the fighting, like the voting, has been along ethnic lines.

Now comes the sixty four thousand dollar question...will this have any practical effect in quelling the violence. That is still left to be determined. As the article mentions, there are still thorny issues to resolve and one of those is the issue of armed men with machetes looking to commit violence on tribal grounds.

Kenya in Crisis Day 59: Is the Power Sharing Agreement Unconstitutional and Undemocratic

It is unclear what has happened to the power sharing agreement that folks like Kofi Annan said would be wrapped up and finalized by yesterday. As we wait for this agreement to be reached, it is time to examine the wisdom of this agreement. Here is the view from one expert in the region.

The tradition in any sovereign nation is to have a government that must operate on the foundation that is constitutional. America is known to believe in the rule of law. All laws are based upon the constitution. Bush is asking the Kenyan government that is established under a constitution and laws to ignore the tradition of laws which they, the United States, values.

By asking the government to ignore the constitution and create agreements which go against the very foundation on which Kenya’s democratic principles stand Bush is contradicting the very essence of America’s foreign policy: encouraging states to uphold democratic principles.

Democracy is not just voting, democracy is rule of law, laws founded on constitutions. It is these contradictions that give America a bad name. A double standard that supports the Israeli aggression and disregard of human rights and fighting Palestinians when they democratically elect their leaders. The same kind of policies that rejects the Kenyan government efforts to deal with hooligans who have used the 2008 election to burn businesses, rape women and displace children, and move to remove through violence legitimate land owners in the rift valley. If this is bush’s definition of democracy then Kenyans better stick to African socialism and the rule of the chief.

This is the sort of utopian and theoretical view that is frankly quite dangerous when analyzing this sort of crisis. I have my problems with the power sharing agreement. I see this crisis as having a very strong element of tribalism, class warfare, as well as criminality, and I don't know that a power sharing agreement will help relieve those tensions. That said, to claim it is unconstitutional, is dangerous even if it is technically correct (and maybe especially since it is technically correct). The country is on the brink of full tribal genocide and here we have a commentator focusing on whether or not an agreement meant to stop the genocide is within the keeping of the Constitution.

That is an idea that is beside the point right now, in my opinion. The Constitution is no suicide pact and furthermore it certainly didn't save this country from the crisis it is in. In fact, the current leader, Mwai Kibaki, used an obscure law within the Constitution to quickly swear himself in while the mess surrounding the vote was still being sorted out. Whether or not this agreement is or is not constitutional seems an issue to be resolved when armed gangs of men with machetes are no longer roaming the streets of Kenya. The only thing that should be relevant to anyone now is how to stop the violence that is gripping the country.

A Constitution is worthless if the folks on the street have no safety. What really makes this arguement infuriating is its implicit indictment of the United States. Once again, we have anti American arguement that twists our foreign policy beyond all recognition. The U.S. is again blamed for the lack of civil society in another country that has once again created chaos. Certainly in a perfect world, we would like every country to follow its own Constitution at all times. The situation in Kenya is anything but a perfect world and thus our foreign policy has become pragmatic to realize that. We would also like to recognize the duly elected government of every nation as well, however when a territory, not even a nation, elects a terrorist group we once again must act with pragmatism.

It seems the perspective of this author is that the U.S. recognize terror, chaos, violence and death in our inflexible pursuit of seeing Democracy flourish all over the world. If we don't, not only is this nation hypocritical but the rightly recipient of venom throughout the world. It is time for world leaders, academics, and pundits to realize the shortfalls and misgivings of other nations. When nations elected terrrorists, there are consequences, and when elections lead to the brink of genocide there are also consequences. Those are not situations that the U.S. created. We must deal with them, but it takes pragmatism and that pragmatism must not only be recognized but respected. To use that pragmatism as an opportunity to further an anti American agenda will not be tolerated or overlooked, not by me at least.

Kenya in Crisis Day 48:...And There's the Rub

Talks continued on Monday in hopes of reaching a power sharing agreement between the ruling party headed by Mwai Kibaki and the opposition headed by Raila Odingo.

A Kenyan government negotiator said Monday the president's party was considering sharing power with the opposition, the first acknowledgment from the government side that such a proposal was on the table.

The international community has been pressing for a power-sharing agreement in hopes that it will end the presidential election-related violence that has killed more than 1,000 in the East African country. Up to 600,000 people have been displaced, a top U.N. official said Monday.

"The talks from today on will be a hardball," said Mutula Kilonzo, one of the negotiators on behalf of President Mwai Kibaki, as discussions resumed between the government and the opposition.

Over the weekend, however, Odinga was a lot more confrontational.

Kibaki "must step down or there must be a re-election — in this I will not be compromised,"

Odinga shouted in East Africa's common language of Swahili to cheering supporters.

It was a sharp turnaround from comments he made in English two days earlier in the capital, Nairobi. He indicated he would not insist on Kibaki's resignation, saying "we are willing to give and take."

And there's the rub of course, because it is impossible for there to be a power sharing agreement if one of the two parties expects the other to re sign. I have been skeptical that this power sharing agreement would ever materialize and even more skeptical that it would have any effect What is currently happeing simultaneously with one set of folks claiming that an agreement is near and one of the two parties demanding the other re sign only re inforce my suspicions.

I don't believe that there is anyone close to the situation that is making any sort of a legitimate effort to do anything to bring the chaos under control. I think that most of the sides are going through the motions or angling for more power. Meanwhile gangs of men armed with machetes are seeking out folks, usually those from other tribes, and executing them.

As the country decsends into chaos most of those in charge see their own hold on power as more important than stopping a genocide.

Kenya in Crisis Day 45: Mungiki Vs. Kalenjin Warriors

The Kalenjin Warriors are a militant organization spun off a sect from the Kalenjin tribe, the fourth largest tribe in Kenya. The Kalenjin was one of the tribes that formed the opposition government of Raila Odingo (himself a Luo). Because the Kikuyu, the tribe of incumbent Mwai Kibaki, is blamed for the election, the Kalenjin Warriors have set their sights on any members of the Kikuyu tribe since the election December 27th. They have perpetrated a great deal of violence against members of the other tribes.

Suspected Kalenjin warriors on Sunday raided Burnt Forest, intending to kill displaced people camped in the town, but security personnel repulsed them, a Catholic priest told CISA.

The warriors returned early on Monday and police killed seven of them, including two schoolboys. The priest expressed fears that the warriors, armed with bows, arrows, spears, machetes and petrol, were planning another attempt on the camp.

The Mungiki are another militant group that is spawned from members of the Kikuyu tribe, the tribe the current leader Mwai Kibaki belongs to. They have a rather primitive view of society themselves.

The religion, which apparently originated in the late 1980s, is secretive and bears some similarity to mystery religions. Specifics of their origin and doctrines are unclear. What is clear is that they favour a return to indigenous African traditions and reject Westernisation and all trappings of colonialism. This includes rejection of Christianity, and the practice by the Mungiki of forced female circumcision. The ideology of the group is characterised by revolutionary rhetoric and Kikuyu traditions with a disdain for Kenyan modernization seen as amoral corruption.[3]

The Mungiki practice similary forms of brutality.

The men were screaming and saying, 'Please don't kill me, don't cut me,"' the 35-year-old vendor told The Associated Press, asking to be identified only by one initial, K., because she feared reprisals by the gang.

In the violence that has followed Kenya's disputed presidential election, a notorious gang has been mutilating the genitals of both men and women in the name of circumcision — inflicting a brutal punishment on members of a rival tribe that does not traditionally circumcise.

Both of these militants have taken to the Kenyan streets and used the vacuum created by the aftermath of the Kenyan election for their own agendas. Much of their own violence is directed at members of the other's tribe. The situation is complicated by the fact that these gangs are many times the only protection that the commoner from their tribe has. In the slums and other areas where the chaos is greatest they are the only means of protection from their rival gangs including each other.

In this respect the crisis begins to look quite similar to the darkest hours in Iraq. That was when the Sadr Brigade was acting as a protector of the Shia and AQI and its spin off protected the Sunnis. With the militias not only the perpetrators of the violence but sometimes the only protectors, the situation is one now in need of a military solution first and then a political one.

This is what is happening on the ground throughout much of Kenya. Whether it is these two groups battling for turf or others. This is the backdrop of violence as as Kofi Annan attempts to broker a deal to grant power sharing between the two political leaders. (Odingo and Kibaki)

It is unclear to me how the one relates to the other and more importantly how the power sharing agreement will get militant groups like these two to put down their arms.

Kenya in Crisis Day 44: A Breakthrough?

According to the AP, a breakthrough may have been reached in a power sharing agreement that most diplomats believe will end the violence that has swept the country.

Kenya's ruling party and opposition have agreed to form a joint government in an effort to end weeks of bloodshed that have engulfed the country since the disputed presidential election, an opposition lawmaker said Friday.

The two sides still were discussing who would lead the government and what roles each party would play, said William Rutto, a lawmaker from the opposition Orange Democractic Movement.

"We have finally agreed there is a problem in the country and neither side can proceed on its own," Rutto told The Associated Press. "We have agreed to form a joint government. Details of that government, its time and how to share it are under discussions."

There was no immediate comment from the government or President Mwai Kibaki's Party of National Unity. But former U.N. chief Kofi Annan, who is heading talks aimed at resolving the crisis, was expected to make a statement later Friday.

Word of the power-sharing government came hours after Kibaki said he was "committed" to the negotiations.

Speaking at a prayer meeting in Nairobi, Kibaki said he was "encouraged...

I was not only skeptical that an agreement would be reached but that it would have any effect on swelling the violence. I was clearly wrong on the first count and only time will tell if I will be wrong on the second.

Meanwhile gangs were battling each other in the slums of Nairobi.

In one such slum, known as Area 3—a sprawl of tin-roofed shacks, supermarkets and community centers that have been burned to the ground over the last two weeks—a lumbering Luo man wearing a New York baseball cap and carrying a 10-inch machete tucked into his jeans, escorted a NEWSWEEK reporter into a Luo safehouse. "Don't worry," he said, "it's safe here." The man, who called himself Titus, was a security escort for this group of Luo vigilantes, who have taken to calling themselves "Taliban," partially in emulation of the draconian tactics of the Afghan tribesmen who enforced law and order through the barrels of their AK-47s. Looking out onto the street, these Luo Taliban searched the area for the men they now perceive as their sworn enemies: the Kikuyu Mungiki gangs who have taken up positions at intersections and alleyways. Taliban members see themselves as providing security and justice. They first became active the day after the elections. Their men, typically tall and built like heavyweight boxers, light fires and sleep with groups of unaffiliated volunteers outside apartment buildings and shanty towns at night, trying to allay the fears of restless women and children. Last Saturday night Taliban members tried unsuccessfully to dynamite a small bridge that links a Kikuyu area to a smaller Luo area where a now vacant tenement building had been attacked.

Color me skeptical, but I don't believe these gangs care very much if there is a power sharing agreement or not. To them this is a chance to commit violence and criminality. Their violence is combined with that of tribal warfare and other forces that have used this as a vacuum for their own agendas.

Both Kibaki and Odingo have said they have nothing to do with the violence. If that is the case, I don't see how power sharing will end the violence. I continue to believe that the international community is misreading the situation. Whatever it was that started this, chaos is ultimately controlling it now. To stop this violence there needs be significant military and police presence in all areas of trouble. Power sharing agreements are all nice and well however the situation requires a law and order solution first and then a political solution.

Kenya in Crisis Day 41: An Update

The crisis in Kenya reached a dubious number today as the death toll topped 1000.

Kenya's local Red Cross reported Tuesday that more than 1,000 people have died and 304,000 were displaced in Kenya's post-election crisis.

Meanwhile, former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has led mediation for the speedy resolution of the crisis sparked by accusations of election rigging between opposition leader Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki in late December.

Annan took over the mediation after Kibaki loss confidence to former mediator businessman Cyril Ramaphosa.

A power-sharing deal between government and opposition politicians is underway, which is seen to finally resolve the crisis.

I, myself, am dubious of the last paragraph. I will not only take a wait and see attitude to see if a power sharing agreement is reached, but also whether or not it will have any effect in stemming the violence. To me the whole thing is surreal. First, we are supposed to believe the hapless Annan who couldn't resolve any of the crises that faced the world during his entire tenure at the UN is going to resolve this crisis. Second, we are supposed to believe that armed men with machetes are going to stop tribal warfare because two political factions have agreed to share power.

I can't figure out if I am the only one that sees doom where it isn't or if the rest of the world is blind to it. Whatever did or didn't happen in the election, I doubt very much that the armed men with machetes are going to stop because of some power sharing agreement. This has turned tribal and primitive. The situation requires serious commitment to law and order. That isn't political, but security. It is possible that the current leader, Kibaki, is too weak to maintain law and order and that a power sharing agreement will give him the necessary power to restore law and order.

Personally, I read the reporting and I just don't think that most of the folks reporting on it have any handle on the situation. There is so much complexity to this situation that it seems almost absurd to me that some sort of a show power sharing agreement will resolve the crisis. Take a look at this article for instance...

When Steve Maina finishes a round of golf at Kenya's exclusive Windsor club, a waistcoated waiter hurries over with a tall iced drink while armed guards watch discreetly from the shrubbery, a few minutes' drive from one of Nairobi's oldest slums.

That's Mathare, the shantytown where Cliff Owino's tin shack leans over a river of sewage and almost every morning a corpse with machete wounds turns up in an alley.

Most of the time, these two faces of Kenya, so close geographically, exist on different planes. But clashes triggered by Kenya's disputed elections on Dec. 27 set them on a collision course. Some 800 people have died and more than 300,000 been displaced after opposition leader Raila Odinga accused President Mwai Kibaki of rigging the slim margin that secured him another five-year term.

Many factors contributed to the violence - frustration over poverty and corruption, ethnic rivalries exploited by politicians, criminal gangs and competition over land - but most of all the feeling of Kenya's poor that Kibaki's much-touted economic boom is passing them by.

I believe that the election unleashed all sorts of things that were simmering under the surface and they exploded as a result. There are elements of tribalism, class warfare, as well as all sorts of criminality. I don't belive for one second that any of these factions have any allegiance to any political party. They have found a vacuum and they have their own agendas.

I maybe wrong however I don't believe that men walking around with machetes looking to identify folks of opposite tribes and kill them are going to stop because two politicians have agreed to power sharing. Yet, that is what the reporting purports to present. This is what most of the so called diplomats are angling for. This situation requires the sort of military plan that was implemented in Iraq. It requires a force that will confront the violence and control it. Only when that violence is controlled will any power sharing plan have any meaning. Instead, the powers that be think that two politicians, who don't control the violent men, can sign some document get on television with figureheads from around the world and suddenly everyone will drop their machetes and go home.

The irony is that this latest round of violence is playing out much like the violence throughout the rest of the continent. The Rwandan genocide was also tribal and it also involved militias. No power sharing agreement stopped the tribal warfare, and yet we have diplomats angling for a power sharing agreement to stop this genocide.

I hope I am wrong, however the more I learn about this crisis the more I fear I am right.

Kenya in Crisis Day 35: An Update

The situation continues to be more and more tenuous in Kenya. The violence is ratcheting up and now we are seeing more and more, that people of power are getting murdered. Meanwhile all of the so called leaders are treating this crisis as something more of a real estate negotiations rather than a crisis that may likely bring this country into genocide. Another politician was murdered yesterday.

A policeman shot and killed an opposition lawmaker yesterday in what authorities say was a crime of passion over a woman. But machete-wielding protesters convinced it was an assassination clashed with police, leaving at least three dead. The fighting interrupted talks aimed at calming a nation gripped by violence since a disputed election a month ago.

Police said David Too was shot by a police officer who discovered the lawmaker was having an affair with his girlfriend. The woman — whom Too family members deny was linked to the politician — was shot in the same attack and also died, a hospital official said.

Too was the second anti-government legislator killed in a week; opposition politicians said both were victims of assassination plots.

Meanwhile, little tangible effect has happened since the two leaders, Odingo and Kibaki, met on Wednesday. I am quite dubious of Kofi Annan acting as mediator. Let's just say his skills don't give me much hope that the right person is there to bring some sort of stability.

Meanwhile, new UN Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon got behind a new four point plan.

He has come to provide heavyweight diplomatic clout for efforts to end a month of post-election turmoil in which more than 850 people have been killed.

Ban went straight to see negotiating teams for President Mwai Kibaki and his rival, opposition leader Raila Odinga. "Look beyond the individual interest. Look beyond the party lines. Look towards the future, the brighter future of your country," the UN boss urged them.

While all this negotiations look good on paper the reason I am skeptical is because it is all being done in the backdrop of the violence that I have described.

Kenya in Crisis Day 32: A Broken Record

There are more scene of violence with men carrying machetes butchering each other. Violence caused by machetes has now become an all too common occurrence in Kenya.

Kenyan military helicopters swooped to break up machete-wielding mobs on Tuesday as the killing of an opposition legislator stoked bloody protests across the
east African country.

About a dozen people were killed on Tuesday, bringing the toll to more than 850 since President Mwai Kibaki's disputed December 27 election triggered violence that has now taken on an ethnic momentum of its own.

Post-election protests have degenerated into cycles of killing between tribes who have never reconciled divisions over land, wealth and power left by British colonial rule and exacerbated by politicians in 44 years of independence.

The crisis has cost Kenya its reputation as a bastion of peace in a turbulent region, and dented its previously flourishing economy, east Africa's largest.

I think the last paragraph is the understatement of all understatements. At this point the last thing anyone should be worrying about is Kenya's reputation, and any story that makes a point of it, is in my opinion missing the point.

The latest flare up was spurned by the murder of an opposition law maker.

Gunmen killed an opposition lawmaker in Nairobi on Tuesday, triggering a new flare-up of the ethnic fighting that has gripped Kenya since its disputed presidential election and dimming hopes for negotiations to end the month-long standoff.

Mugabe Were, who was shot to death as he drove home, was among a slew of opposition members who won seats in the legislative vote held at the same time as the presidential election. The opposition, which won the most seats in parliament, accuses President Mwai Kibaki of stealing the presidential vote.

As the murders become more rampant, more extreme, and more significant, the situation becomes more desperate. I still haven't seen anything that makes me believe that we are headed for anything but an all out genocide. All of the so called diplomacy from President Bush, to Senator Obama, to other world leaders appears to me to be window dressing. Case in point, the next paragraph.

Meanwhile, Kofi Annan has begun formal mediations.

Former U.N. chief Kofi Annan on Tuesday opened formal mediation to end Kenya's post-election crisis, pulling together both sides to strike a political deal and stanch violence threatening to spiral out of control.

Annan opened the meeting in the Kenyan capital Nairobi flanked by President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga. Western nations have urged both sides -- who appear far apart -- to take the talks seriously or risk losing aid.

"There is only one Kenya," Annan said as he spoke to open the ceremony. "The crisis has a profound and negative impact on the social fabric of Kenya, on the Kenyan economy."

I will not make any crude and inappropriate remarks about Annan's ability to mediate this crisis and merely say I have my doubts about what he can accomplish. Odinga's quote is diplomatic however I am of the opinion that there is no more Kenya. There are only tribes, and Odinga doesn't lead any of them. By meeting with the leaders of each faction, it seems to me as though Annan is missing the basic dynamic of the crisis. I believe these two could walk into the middle of Nairobi and have tea together and it wouldn't do much. This is no longer political and mostly tribal. In order to stop it, the leaders of each tribe need to be mediated, and that isn't who Annan is meeting with.

Kenya in Crisis Day 30: The Black Hole of Violence

The violence continues in Kenya and the death toll has now exceeded 800. It is unclear to me who is counting and whether or not the group is accurate. I believe that there is too much chaos in the country to give an accurate count, however there is no doubt that a lot of folks have died...

Gangs of youths armed with machetes and clubs fought running battles with police on Sunday and burned tribal rivals alive in their homes in western Kenya, pushing the death toll from a month of escalating ethnic violence to nearly 800.


Sunday marked exactly one month since the Dec. 27 disputed president election which sparked the violence that has transformed this once-stable African country, pitting longtime neighbors against each other and turning towns where tourists used to gather for luxury holidays into no-go zones.

In response to one of my previous entries, I received this comment

Three of the happiest years of my life were spent living and working in Kenya, I now live in northern Uganda but keep close ties with my Kenyan friends. I disagree profoundly with your description of the current crisis as being merely tribal and something therefore peculiarly African.

It is important to understand that this crisis is not merely anything. The commenter says that they spent time there and they go onto give very good detail of the roots of this crisis. This crisis is very complicated and has elements of class, politics, as well as criminality. My point is that the people of Kenya have chosen tribalism over nationalism. Right now, neighbors are killing neighbors based on tribal affiliation. In other words, very few consider themselves Kenyans now. Instead they consider themselves Kikuyu or Luo or anyone of about twenty tribes that are in Kenya.

This was certainly a difficult concept for me to initially understand myself however tribes have no national identity. The same tribes that are battling each other in Kenya can be found throughout the continent of Africa. Their leaders are likely located in other countries. The two so called leaders, Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki, don't control their respective tribes, Kikuyu and Luo. In fact, the opposition is made up of a collection of tribes. Right now the tribal warfare pits the Kikuyu against most of the other tribes in the nation.

In order to bring this violence under control all those folks with machetes need to see someone they see as a leader call for an end to the violence. Neither of the two men can claim that mantle. They can claim leadership to the country of Kenya but right now that country is more and more in name only.

As the country decays further and further into chaos it grows closer and closer to genocide. The turmoil continues.

Kenya in Crisis Day 29: "Leaders" Meet Violence Continues

Nearly a month into the crisis in Kenya, the two leaders finally met face to face with Kofi Annan as the mediator

Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, leader of the main opposition party are meeting Thursday with former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Anna as mediator.

It is unclear if this meeting will have anything more than symbolic value. I continue to believe that these two so called leaders are leading nothing. This crisis is now largely tribal with Kikuyu being attacked by most of the other tribes. These two leaders may lead political movements and they may lead supposed countries but they don't lead their respective tribes.

While this meeting was taking place sporadic violence continued throughout Kenya. The latest incarnation is in the city of Nakuru.

Kenyan police have imposed a night-time curfew in the western city of Nakuru where clashes have left at least 10 people dead over the past 24 hours.

Violence is continuing in Kenya's Rift Valley province, despite progress towards resolving the country's political crisis.

Hundreds have been killed since last month's disputed election, but it took until yesterday for President Mwai Kibaki and Opposition leader Raila Odinga to meet for talks.

This situation continues to spiral out of control and the rest of the world is largely sitting by despite the reality that genocide is fast approaching.

Kenya in Crisis Day 24: Kenya and My Favorite Shakespeare Line

The tribal mentality was foreign to me up until I started following the crisis in Kenya. Ever since the election unraveled the country has decayed into tribal warfare. The warfare pits the Kikuyu, blamed for the election, against most of the rest of the tribe.

As the two political leaders, Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, jockey for position and power, there is one thing that is becoming more and more clear. The country of Kenya is becoming more like a geographical area. At this point, more and more the people of Kenya aren't identifying themselves by their national identity but rather by their tribal identity.

The trouble is that tribes span multiple countries. Most of these tribes can find root throughout much of Africa. These supposed leaders don't lead the people of their tribe. Thus, we have the sort of mob rule that is going on in Kenya. As people take sides according to tribes rather than nationality, those in charge are usually those with the most men, artillery, and supplies.

The sort of tribal identity that is spawned by this violence almost always leads to warlords being in charge. It is what happened in Somalia and in Rwanda. Therein lies the rub, as Shakespeare would say. At this point, Kenya is slowly disappearing and what is popping up are a number of tribes who have no nation.

It is sad and peculiar to watch the two sides jockey for power. Power of what I would ask. By the time this crisis is done there won't be a country. The folks of Kenya had a choice and most of them chose their tribe. It is an easy choice to make of course. These tribes are many, many years old, thousands at times. They are steeped in tradition. Kenya, the country, is not even one hundred years old, not in its current form at least. When faced with a choice most folks chose their tribes.

Now that they have, it is anyone's guess who exactly is in charge. The tribal leaders are nowhere to be found many times in other countries. The leaders now are those with the most "muscle". The folks with the most machetes, the most men, and other artillery will eventually be the ones with the power.

The vacuum left by the chaos of the aftermath of the election has left a window for warlords and other menaces. While all this goes on two political factions vie for power of a nation that is soon a nation on paper only. The real power will be decided on the streets of Kenya. It will likely be decided by men carrying machetes. Therein lies the rub.

Is Africa Next

Somalia has been an anarchy since the early 1990's. Rwanda, Ethiopa, the Sudan, and Congo have each suffered through some form of genocide or ethnic cleansing in the last two decades. Nigeria is constantly threatened by pirates and terrorists who regularly blow up oil pipelines and take people hostage. Zimbabwe has been ruled by the tyrant Robert Mughabe since the early 1980's and their economy is on such thin ice that their inflation rates are regularly three and four digits. Up until three weeks ago, Kenya appeared to be some sort of a model and beacon for this continent and now that country is on the brink of its own genocide.

There is an appropriate term to describe this country, hornet's nest. There is an awful lot of evil and wickedness that all comes together in one continent. For the most part, the rest of the world yawns at all the death, destruction, and other evils that happen on a regular basis on this continent. I think soon enough the day of reckoning will come and the rest of the world will have to clean up the uncontrollable mess that the continent has.

Nearly one million people were killed in the Rwandan genocide. Several thousand people were killed in Ethiopa's genocide four years ago. Nearly five million people were killed during the genocide that occurred in the Congo. A few hundred thousand folks were killed during another genocide in the Sudan.

Worse than that is that the roots of many of these conflicts are the same, tribal warfare. In the end, the Africans don't identify themselves by their nation but by their tribe, and when things go bad it becomes tribal warfare. This was the case in Rwanda as members of the Hutu tribe committed acts of murder against members of the Tutsi. Kenya is the latest coronation of this phenomenon. The incumbent and current leader, Mwai Kibaki, is being blamed for what most folks consider a corrupt election. He is a member of the Kikuyu tribe. As such armed Kenyan men, carrying machetes many times, are roaming the streets looking for members of the Kikuyu tribe.

Furthermore, most of these nations are impoverished. In Ethiopia, the unemployment rate can be up to 70%. In Uganda, the average per capita income is $300 PER YEAR. Nigeria, a member of OPEC and holding the tenth largest oil reserve, has a per capita yearly income of $692.

There is disease, starvation, and STD's all over the place. Just over 6% of all people in the Sub Saharan nations of Africa are afflicted with the AIDS virus. For comparison, the rate in the U.S. is one tenth of one percent.

Africa has long been a fertile ground for terrorists. Both the Sudan and Somalia have played vital roles in the creation and evolution of Al Qaeda. It is likely operatives are common in most of the nations. Bad guys love chaos and the one thing that is plentiful on this continent is chaos.

I simply cannot believe that this sort of thing can continue to happen in the vacuum of the African continent without eventually spilling over to the rest of the world and being left the Western World to clean up much like the way the troubles of the Middle East have been left to the Western World in the GWOT. The rest of the world is yawning while Kenya stands on the brink of genocide. The whole world yawns while an entire continent is gripped with mass starvation, mass slaughter, mass tyranny and of course mass evil. I try to approach everything with a certain logic and logic tells me the world can't ignore this much evil without having equally disastrous consequences.

Kenya in Crisis Day 23: Escalation?

There continues to be troubling and tragic violence throughout Kenya.

Masai fighters battled rival tribesman loyal to President Mwai Kibaki on Friday, with both sides using machetes, swords, bows and arrows on the final and bloodiest day of protests this week over Kenya's disputed election.

In Nairobi's Kibera slum and the coastal tourist town of Mombasa, police and demonstrators fought in the streets.

Three days of protests called by Kenya's opposition have dwindled in strength, but at least 22 people have been killed, including five who died in the ethnic fighting less than a dozen miles from the premier Masai Mara game reserve in Narok, police chief Patrick Wambani told The Associated Press.

The opposition leader Raila Odinga is pursuing a dangerous sort of scorched Earth policy. By calling on protests and boycotts as he has, he only contributes to raising the tension and ultimately the violence. I don't know what his motivation is however I hope he hasn't decided to gain power through any means necessary. The two men, Odinga and Kibaki, haven't met since the crisis started. It appears each is maneuvering and angling for power. Kibaki threw the first move by swearing himself in while there was confusion over the results of the election. Odinga may use boycotts and protests to force Kibaki's hand. Unfortunately, these maneuvers will also contribute to the violence and tension that has gripped the country.

Also, in response to my previous piece, I received this comment from an individual that identified themselves as Kenyan.

But my saddest day for Kenyans was on Tuesday during the first day of parliament. Members from both sides of the divide shook hands laughing heartily despite their vitriol-filled public statements. As we kill each other ‘fighting for our man’, our man is eating and drinking with the ‘enemy’ (with whom by they way share business interests) in his lavish mansion watching us clowns on TV.

If the politicians are perfectly happy with the results of the election while their supporters pursue bloody and violence forms of justice, then there really are big problems ahead. Keep in mind this crisis is tribal with the Kikuyus being blamed by other tribes for the election fiasco. It is already a struggle of class warfare since the Kikuyu are seen as the upper class. If it comes to pass that the commoner sees the politicians as their enemies this crisis will fall quickly into genocide.

Kenya in Crisis Day 22: On the Brink

The opposition staged rallies. Those rallies lead to violence, and now the country fears more widespread ethnic cleansing.

Two people were killed in the western city of Kisumu, an opposition stronghold where burning tires blocked the roads. Witnesses said they were shot at by police — but the authorities claimed officers had only fired in the air.

Police also used live rounds in the capital, Nairobi, and in the town of Eldoret, wounding at least five people. The latest clashes raised fears of more mass ethnic killings, like those that followed the election on December 27.

Here is how one place described the events...

Young men armed with machetes hurled stones at police who fired back tear gas in a slum in Kenya's capital Thursday, but most of the country was quiet as
opposition protests over a disputed presidential election appeared to lose
steam.

Residents hid indoors and crouched on the floors of shops as young men ran past in Nairobi's Mathare slum. Police fired tear gas down dirt alleyways and gunshots into the air.

It is important to note that the police are an extension of the government currently in charge of Mwai Kibaki. Kibaki is from the Kikuyu tribe, the largest tribe in Kenya. He is currently being blamed for what the conventional wisdom now considers rigged elections. The armed men with machetes are generally from a loose coalition of every other tribe. Last week the same sort of scenes were occurring only these armed men had their sights set on the commoners who they deemed from the Kikuyu tribe. Now, they have turned their venom toward the police which they also identify with the Kikuyu tribe.

It is unclear what the purpose of the rallies is however one effect is increasing the violence, tension and death in the country. Ultimately, what these rallies show is that chaos is ultimately in control of that country. The image of groups of men roaming around with machetes evoke the darkest hours in the aftermath of the rigged election. The most primitive and debased sort of tribal and gang warfare are fusing together to create a situation that is spiraling out of control.

The current leader, Mwai Kibaki, and the opposition leader, Raila Odingo, haven't spoken face to face since the crisis started.

It is unclear what such a meeting would accomplish anyway. At this point, just about anything could be construed as stoking the tensions.

Cities throughout the country are reporting ongoing humanitarian crises. There is widespread violence, looting, gang warfare, and militia activity. It is unclear at this point that anyone is in charge.

While politicians, diplomats, and so called statesmen offer advice counsel and mediation the country continues to spiral out of control. There is no indication that there will be any legitimate action to stop this impending nightmare anytime soon.

Kenya in Crisis Day 21: Rallies, Protest, and Violence...

The opposition held several large rallies as planned today. The rallies were not without incident.

Police lobbed tear gas into crowds in cities around Kenya Wednesday and at least one person was reported dead at the start of three planned days of protests over presidential elections.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga, who claims he was robbed of the presidency in the Dec. 27 election because of vote rigging, called for the nationwide protests despite a government ban on the demonstrations, reported the Associated Press.

Police called for a ban on the three planned days of protests. As a result, shopkeepers boarded windows, traffic came to a standstill in parts of Nairobi, and many Kenyans stayed at home, Reuters reported.

It is hard to predict this very complicated dynamic. The police are controlled by the government of course. That government is currently controlled by Mwai Kibuki. It is the opinion of most observers, including U.S., that his election victory was corrupted. While Kibuki belongs to the most well represented Kenyan tribe, the Kikuyu, they make up on 22% of all Kenyans. The Kikuyu are now the subject of the violence as that tribe is being blamed by all others for the malfeasance in the election.

Now the government that Kibuki controls will try and control the mass demonstrations from the majority of the population. This appears to be a recipe for chaos.

Kenya in Crisis Day 18: State of Denial?

A government spokes man is painting a rosy picture...

Kenya is not burning and not at the throes of any division,"

However it should be noted that Kenya is not at war and does not need mediators or peacekeepers. Dialogue is open with anyone but the talk is not mediation or cease fire."

These statements among several were made by Dr Alfred Mutua, the Government spokesman. Keep in mind that is the government spokesman for President Kibaki. While the government puts on a happy face, members of the President's tribe, the Kikuyus, are being singled out for slaughter. Gangs are running loose. There are men armed with machetes all over the streets. This is what is happening right now in Kenya while the government claims there is no problem. The event that instigated this near genocide is the likely rigged elections that most of the country blames on the President, Kibaki, and his supporters. In other words, this same government that claims there are no great problems in their country, can't protect its own breathren from slaughter.

Human Rights Watch has called on the police to stop using excessive force...

The Kenyan government should urgently and publicly order the police to stop using excessive, lethal force against public rallies, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch urged political leaders on all sides to call on supporters to demonstrate peacefully.

...furthermore with rallies by all sides scheduled for next week, it is unclear what sorts of violence awaits Kenya next week...

Opposition leaders have called for rallies next week in defiance of the government’s broad ban on public gatherings, prompting concerns that new clashes could result in further deaths and injuries. Human Rights Watch is also concerned by ongoing violence in the Rift Valley, where hundreds of people have died and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. “

Kenyan security forces have a duty to rein in criminal violence and should protect people, but they shouldn’t turn their weapons on peaceful protestors,” said Georgette Gagnon, acting Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “The government should make it very clear that police will be held to account for using lethal force against people for simply expressing political views.”

That said, not everyone believes the violence is still out of control...

The sad events in Kenya seem to be slowly coming under control. Given the anti-Kikuyu atrocities of the last two weeks, restoring consensus to Kenya society will be an arduous one. We too, in Jamaica, face the challenge of strengthening our consensus before divisiveness throws us further into deep and violent crisis.

Consensus will not end all of our problems and disagreements. Consensus seeks to ensure that our disagreements remain civil, do not spill over into destructive violence and are channelled into constructive suggestions for the improvement of Jamaican society. This is the same challenge faced by Kenya and many other African states who are feeling the stern challenges of a globalised world economy. In Kenya, economic and political forces have created a situation where ethnic and social tensions coincide.

the article continued by comparing this situation to one in Jamaica...

This is a situation not unlike Jamaica, where rich people tend to be from the light-skinned groups there is a growing black bourgeoisie. Jamaicans assume that if you are light-skinned you are likely to be rich and enjoy privilege. Kenyans tend to assume, if you are Kikuyu, you are also likely to be rich and enjoy privilege, despite the huge Kikuyu slums in Nairobi dominated by the infamous Mungiki gangs. In Nigeria, for reasons having to do with both the slave and palm oil trades, some Igbo families from Aro got into trading activities very early in the 18th century and became rich. For this reason, many Nigerians assume that if you are Igbo you love money, even though the vast majority of Igbos are poor small farmers in their villages.

In societies of this nature, where ethnic and economic divisions coincide, the task of building consensus takes on a special importance. Divisiveness is a luxury we cannot afford. It does not take much to throw societies such as Jamaica, Kenya and Nigeria into violent and destructive confrontation and civil war. People naturally default into their mental tribes - the garrisons of the mind. This is why the efforts of the healthy elements in the People's National Party (PNP) to subordinate the lumpen and to foster a constructive approach are so vital. This is why Mr. Golding needs to return to his original policy of 'constructive engagement' and stop bowing to his own group of tribalists.

The comparison to Jamaica is interesting and worthy of more research however the idea that things are calming down is in my opinion wishful thinking. The situation is out of control and there is no one that has stepped forward to bring calm. Furthermore, I don't know that anyone can.

Nothing I have read leads to me to conclude anything but that we are headed straight for another genocide though...