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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Morning Market Report

First time jobless claims just came out and they reached their lowest level in months. This past week's number came in at 512,000. That's a drop of 20,000 jobs. It's also a ten month low. The Dow bumped up over 9800 yesterday. Futures are trading slightly higher in pre market as well. The Federal Reserve kept rates even yesterday and the markets really didn't grow all that volatile to the announcement. Meanwhile, the one security really moving these days is the Treasury bond. The ten year U.S. Treasury bond is now at 3.54%. That's almost twenty basis points in about a week. Meanwhile, short term rates are holding steady causing the yield spread between the two and ten year to expand dramatically as well. That yield spread is now at 2.64%. The all time high, reached in June, was 2.75%. Also, mortgage rates have jumped about a quarter of a percent this week as well. Crude oil is now back above $80 a barrel. It's now at $80.12.

In the Far East, the Hang Seng in China was down .63%, the NIKKEI in Japan was down 1.29%, and the Straits Time Index in Singapore was down .73%. The broader Chinese index was, however, up .85%. Europe was much brighter. The FTSE in London was up .32%, the DAX in Germany was up .48% and the Spanish index was up .72%.

Currencies are relatively steady this morning. The Euro is up .07% against the Dollar, the British Pound is up .02% against the Dollar and the Japanese Yen is up .14% against the Dollar.

Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor and Statistics comes out with the October jobs numbers. That will be one to watch. I can't seem to find the consensus number though it will drive the market tomorrow no matter what it winds up being.


Anonymous said...

Could you clarify for me what 'first-time jobless claims' actually means? I assume that means that the number of people unemployed increased by 512,000 people, correct?

So, the fact that it is 20,000 fewer new unemployed than previous months, and that it's the lowest number of lost jobs in 10 months, doesn't really mitigate the fact that half a million people lost their jobs AGAIN this month, right?

Am I missing something?

John said...

Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change
-263,000 prior
-175,000 consensus
-200,000 to -55,000 range

avg. hours consensus is 33.1