Pavlov and the Prisoner Swap

Many countries throughout the world, like Russia for instance, take a very hardline stance toward potential plane hijackings on their soil. They warn that any plane that is hijacked will be stormed and all hijackers will be shot on sight. While this hardline stance would put many that are hijacked in immediate danger, the policy makers believe that ultimate such a hardline policy would ultimately save more lives than it cost by discouraging would be hijackers from even attempting such an undertaking. This is the national security version of Pavlov's theory of classical conditioning.

is a form of associative learning that was first demonstrated by Ivan Pavlov[1] . The typical procedure for inducing classical conditioning involves presentations of a neutral stimulus along with a stimulus of some significance. The neutral stimulus could be any event that does not result in an overt behavioral response from the organism under investigation. Pavlov referred to this as a Conditioned Stimulus (CS).
Conversely, presentation of the significant stimulus necessarily evokes an innate, often reflexive, response. Pavlov called these the Unconditioned Stimulus (US) and Unconditioned Response (UR), respectively. If the CS and the US are repeatedly paired, eventually the two stimuli become associated and the organism begins to produce a behavioral response to the CS. Pavlov called this the Conditioned Response (CR).

Just more than two years ago, Hezbollah terrorists illegal entered the sovereign nation of Israel. They killed several soldiers that guarded the border and took two more hostage. Like any other legitimate military power, Israel has a hard and fast rule about protecting their soldiers in such instances. They normally stop at nothing to rescue soldiers taken by the enemy. There are many reasons and Pavlov's theory is among them. They want their own soldiers conditioned to believe that their country will stop at nothing if ever they find themselves in such a situation and the same for their enemies.

This incident set off a war that Israel, frankly, fumbled and fought half heartedly. Furthermore, Israel ended the war before either destroying Hezbollah or retrieving their own soldiers. Since wars are won or lost and not ended, and Israel didn't achieve either objective, they lost.

Today, things were compounded even more when the remains of those two soldiers were exchanged for some of the most dangerous terrorists in the world.

Now, if we were to approach this whole affair from Pavlov's perspective, here is what we have. Hezbollah illegally entered Israel. They illegally killed multiple soldiers guarding the border. They illegally took two more hostage. Then, that set off a war that public pressure ended before Hezbollah suffered any long term damage. Their reputation grew and now they have recovered 12 of their own brothers for the remains of the two soldiers that Hezbollah ultimately killed.

What sort of conditioning has Hezbollah learned from this? Does it sound like they have been encouraged or discouraged to perpetrate more illegal border incursions in the future? Does it sound as though they have been discouraged or encouraged to take more hostages? Does it sound as though they have been discouraged or encouraged to start more wars?

This prisoner swap is the culmination of many wrong and half hearted measures that will no doubt lead to further escalations soon enough.

First, some housekeeping...unfortunately the Vitter amendment that would have cut off funding to sanctuary cities did not pass. All but one Democrat, Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) voted against and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were among six Senators who didn't vote.

Now, is the state of Illinois about to pass a law that will grant driver's licenses to illegals? A very big hat tip goes to the Illinois Chapter of the Minuteman Project. This past spring the House passed HB 1100 which allowed those here illegal to be able to get driver's licenses. Well, now, according to the Minutemen, this bill is ready to move through the Illinois Senate. Here is how the Minutemen see it playing out.

Driving certificates for illegal aliens is being pushed once again by IL State Senator Iris Martinez. It passed in the IL House last Spring, and with the help of the Senate President Emil Jones, it will be brought up for a vote-- when they think they have enough votes to pass it,

This is an idea that was tried in Tennessee with disastrous results

Bill Ketron has a warning for Illinois lawmakers: Be careful about letting illegal immigrants drive.

The Tennessee state senator sponsored that state’s 2004 law to create special driving “certificates” for illegal immigrants – an idea being considered in Illinois.

Now the program has been suspended, and Ketron is sponsoring legislation to kill it entirely. People used forged documents to obtain the certificates, he said, and some came from other states to fraudulently get certificates then go home and exchange them for regular licenses. “It’s been a disaster,” the Murfreesboro Republican said. “If they’re proceeding with it [in Illinois], go into it with your eyes open.”

The Illinois House voted 60-56 Wednesday to create a certificate program. The measure now goes to the Senate. If it passes there, Gov. Rod Blagojevich says he will sign it into law.

In other words, even if you are from out of state, you are not immune from the recklessness of this legislation. Illegals from your state will flock to ours get driver's licenses and then turn around and try and get legal licenses in your state. (at the end I give contact information for out of state readers)

Now, if I know my own state rep, Sara Feigenholtz, she is no doubt strongly in favor of this measure. Our state already has a less then splendid record on Illegal immigration. Our biggest city, Chicago, is a sanctuary city and thus, no one picked up for a crime is asked their immigration status. Thus, criminal illegals are allowed to stay in this country and infest our streets. Now, the Illinois legislature wants to make it even easier for those that come into this country illegally to function here. I have mentioned multiple times that illegal immigration works much like Pavlov.

Here are two columns, both pro and anti HB 1100. Please go here and find your Senator and let them know how you feel. If you are from out of the State, please contact Iris Martinez and Emil Jones who are heading up the effort.

Update here is text of my letter to my Emil Jones:

I understand that HB 1100 is being floated through the Illinois Senate. This would grant driver’s licenses to illegals. I have no doubt that in your liberal mindset you believe that such an action is the compassionate and reasonable thing to do. It is not. At some point, I hope that you stand up for the rule of law over whatever nonsensical feelings of compassion you have. Illegal immigration is out of control. We may have 20 million or more people here that have no documentation and that number grows every single day. As you know, our own city is a sanctuary city, and thus illegals who are arrested are not asked their immigration status, and thus instead of being deported they are let back on the streets to commit more crimes. Illegal immigration works exactly like Pavlov’s mice. The more positive reinforcements you give to illegals the more illegals you will have. Thus, if you want to contribute to solving the illegal immigration problem, then you will support each and every measure that makes life as difficult as possible for illegals once they get here. The only way to ultimately control the situation is for illegals to have no way of functioning once they reach this country. Granting them driver’s licenses has the exact opposite effect. I hope you will not support this measure.

Now, it is time to make your voice heard.