Since I hate making predictions so far out, I will instead lay out the strategy for Palin to win in 2012.
The way I see it is that almost everything that has happened to her so far can be used by Palin to her advantage going forward. That she has been openly mocked not only by the MSM but the establishment and even Hollywood could in fact not only turn to her advantage but be used for major advantage. If Palin runs a disciplined campaign that focuses on her being an insurgent, an outsider, and a populist that's the best strategy to carry her to victory.
If you think about it, anyone running as a truly fiscal, social, and consistent conservative would be an insurgent in this environment. While everyone else is talking about increasing spending, increasing regulations, and the size of government, Palin would need to present a domestic agenda that cuts rather than increases spending. Throughout her career, Palin has governed as a very effective fiscal conservative. As such, she should be able to speak on all of this with great credibility. Essentially, by insurgent, I would mean the anti Obama candidacy.
This includes tough border enforcement policy, the intention to choose a strict constructionist to the bench, fiscal conservatism, an innovative tax policy like either the flat tax or the fair tax, and a no nonsense and aggressive approach to foreign policy.
The beauty is that she can make all of these work and she can use the media's contempt for all of this to her advantage as well. This leads into the second part.
The more the media, hollywood, the View, and other elitists mock her the more this would play into her image as an outsider. I would have some sort of a photo op for instance of her hunting wild game in Alaska. The most interesting thing about Palin is how unconventional she is. She won a state championship with a bad ankle. She's been a whistleblower. She hunts, and her husband races snow mobiles. In this case, her whole unconventional family would play into this image. Sarah Palin is such a fascinating individual and it also creates an outsider's and unique individual persona.
Of course, the media onslaught that will happen will play right into this part of the campaign theme. The more that the MSM, Hollywood, et al mocks her the more she reinforces an image of an outsider. She's not part of their little boy's club. She doesn't go to their parties, hang out with them in the Hamptons or Martha's Vineyard. That will appeal to the rest of the country that also doesn't go to any of these places.
The most dangerous combination in politics is a truly fiscal conservative that can run a populist campaign. First, there's no doubt that a lot of the country really relates to her. Second, her low taxes small government message needs to appeal to the individual. A populist takes their message and by passes the filter of the media and takes their case directly to the people. One way to do this is a media tour of talk radio. If she takes questions from Rush's, Sean's, and Laura's audience for a an hour at a time. That would make for a great media appearance and allow her to take her message to the people directly. Another way is to hold a lot of townhall meetings.
Once again, the media onslaught will play right into the themes. Of course, the media and the elites are against this populism. After all, her vision would take power away from them and their friends and return it back to the people.
An innovative tax policy along with a policy that cuts the size of government reinforces the theme that under Palin the government will work for the people rather than for special interests. Here, she can use Obama's usurption of the auto makers in order to orchestrate a deal that's good for the UAW as an example of how expansive government works for the benefit of the special interests over the people.
Small government conservatism is inherently populist. All it needs is the right messenger, and Sarah Palin is the perfect person to fuse the two together effectively.
Please check out my new books, "Prosecutors Gone Wild: The Inside Story of the Trial of Chuck Panici, John Gliottoni, and Louise Marshall" and also, "The Definitive Dossier of PTSD in Whistleblowers"