Sarah Palin and the Excitement Factor

The worst nightmare for Barack Obama is that his campaign is no longer seen as the exciting one. The crowds he draws will no longer dwarf those of his opponent. His campaign will no longer be seen as historic, exciting or special. The media will no longer see his campaign as the one that is fresh and fascinating. If the next 64 days are the same as the last two, his worst nightmare will have come true, and this is due to one person, Sarah Palin.

Since the announcement that she would be the Vice Presidential candidate, there has been non stop buzz and excitement over her pick. For the last two days, the Obama campaign has faded into the background to the point of being irrelevant. Now, some of this is natural right after a pick and right before a convention, but the reality is that there is a new found fascination with Palin. Does anyone really think that Tim Pawlenty, with all due respect of course, would have receded Obama into the background the way Palin has? In fact, the fascination with Obama is so August 28th. The fascination with his message of hope and change has receded into the background, and a new fascination has taken hold. It is a fascination with a "hockey mom" that hunts, eats moose, and grew from sportscaster, to small town mayor. to whistleblower, to Governor, and now Vice Presidential nominee. The folks and the media simply can't get enough. Heck, it's my third piece about her today.

The debate over the last two days has been whether or not her experience is enough to make her viable. Not surprisingly, the Conservative pundits overwhelmingly think it is, and the liberal pundits think it isn't. That should surprise no one. Frankly, what an individual pundit says is utterly irrelevant in changing the dynamic of the race. What will chang the dynamic is if the next two months are spent treating Sarah Palin as the rock star and not Barack Obama. So far, that is exactly what has happened.

The best example of the changing dynamic is how quickly his speech, hyped beyond belief, became an after thought as soon as Sarah Palin took to the stage in Dayton. Since then, it has been all Palin all the time, with quick cutaways to a natural disaster. What hasn't been talked discussed over the last two days at all is Barack Obama. Sure, he can still pack them in at a rally, but now, so can Sarah Palin...I mean the McCain campaign. At a rally today in Missouri, there was seventeen thousand folks. McCain used to pack one tenth that on his own.

In fact, the only time that Barack Obama is mentioned is in relation to Palin. First, the media hyperanalyzed Bill Burton's (his campaign manager) initial statement playing down her experience. Was it fair? Was it sexist? Then, the media hyperanalyzed his experience compared to hers. Who had more? Who accomplished more?

Let's face it the campaign has a new rock star and that rockstar's name is Sarah Palin. The conservative base loves her. What's not to love? She is social conservative. She has a track record of fiscal responsibility, fighting corruption, and she's even a lifelong member of the NRA. Mooderates love her. What's not to love. She's a former basketball star, beauty pageant star, mother of five, loves to eat moose, who also happens to be a wildly successful politician. Women love her for obvious reasons. Liberals hate her for obvious reasons. What no one can stop doing is talking about her.

They say that the Vice Presidential pick is ultimately fairly irrelevant in deciding Presidential campaigns. They say we vote ultimately for the top of the ticket. They have never met Sarah Palin. Most folks couldn't tell you when any of the Presidential debates are set to occur. Yet, since Friday morning, the date October 2nd is now seared in our collective subconscious, the day of the Vice Presidential debate. Will Biden control the debate? Will Palin be able to stay up with him on national security and foreign policy? Will he look like a bully? The questions are endless and we are all asking them. Never since I have been following politics has a Vice Presidential pick so dramatically changed the dynamic of a race. Politics has a new rock star and that rock star's name is Sarah Palin.

There is still plenty of time between now and the election. If she begins to stumble, begins to gaffe, shows herself to be a lightweight, that glow will fade fast. If she doesn't though, she will become Barack Obama's worst nightmare, a bigger rockstar. If she shows the reality to be anything like the hype she will do one more thing, make John McCain our next President.