Analyzing the Clinton Voters

Everywhere on television, radio, the internet, and in print someone has an opinion on what the Clinton voters are going to do in the general election. One recent poll had as many as 25% of her voters voting for either John McCain, a third party, or not at all for President. Most liberal pundits dismiss such numbers, and proclaim that since Obama and Clinton agree on nearly every issue, that all her voters will come home to Obama. This sort of analysis is a mixture of naivite and wishful thinking. There are two very important ideas in play. First, McCain doesn't need to pick off that many Hillary voters to win, and second, Hillary voters aren't monolithic. There is no doubt that many Hillary voters are true believers, and they agree with her on nearly every issue. Those voters aren't likely to vote for McCain. They aren't the only voters though, and McCain has plenty left to choose from to make a serious move in the election. I see Hillary voters into three categories.

1) True believers

This aforementioned group agrees with Hillary on nearly every single issue if not every issue entirely. For these voters, the issue of abortion would be a deal killer and that would be just the beginning. These voters are likely lifelong Democrats. They will no doubt vote in overwhelming numbers for Barack Obama. John McCain would be lucky to get one percent of these voters. They make up at least half of all Hillary voters.

2) The PUMA group.

I have hesitated to say anything about PUMA (Party Unity My A$$) because while they are fascinating, compelling, and of course hopeful if you are Republican, it is still unclear just how many there are. This group isn't voting for Barack Obama no matter what. Some may vote for John McCain. Others may vote for a third party, and the rest will merely not vote for President at all, if they even vote. Geraldine Ferraro talks about these folks a lot. She proclaims often to receiving lots of emotional correspondence from them, usually through email. They make a lot of noise. They maintain a web presence. They felt that Hillary was treated really, really bad, and they felt that Obama stood by and said nothing. They felt the coverage was sexist, and yet the media made an awfully big deal out of anything that was perceived as a racist attack on Obama.

The problem with this group is that they are entirely an emotional group. Their argument is NOT rooted in logic but rather emotion. You can never predict which way they will go. They may take something in the general election as racist against Obama and suddenly immediately vote for him. They may wake up one day and let by gones be by gones, though according to Ferraro, that doesn't appear likely. Furthermore, while they make a lot of noise, I am still not confused that they make up a lot of numbers. Now, McCain doesn't need much more than 10-20% of all Hillary voters. This group may or may not hold that many on its own.

3) the pragmatists

I am very familiar with two pragmatists and that's because they are my parents. Both my mom and dad supported Hillary in the primary. Both will be voting for McCain in the general election. Both have been consistent Democratic voters since the early 1990's. My dad was as excited about Hillary as he has been for any candidate that I can remember even her husband. This group supported Hillary for a number of reasons and many of them had nothing to do with ideology. They may have liked her lifetime of experience. They might have been totally turned off to the Republicans over the last eight years, and saw Hillary as the one to bring the country back. They also may have liked Bill a lot and saw Hillary as an extension.

It was after Obama proclaimed that he would attack Pakistan if he had to in order to get UBL, that my dad came to the conclusion that he isn't up to the job. He feels it would irresponsible to vote for someone who isn't ready.

This group agrees with Hillary on somethings or even many things. The difference between them and the true believers is that they don't make ideology a litmus test. Some aren't pro choice and those that are won't make that a litmus test. My dad, for instance, is fiercely pro choice and fairly anti gun, and yet he has no problem supporting McCain. He told me that looking at voting with such strict restriction and intranisgent ideological tints is foolish and illogical.

This is the group that McCain needs to make the biggest play for. Here is where his own experience is most important. Painting Obama as naive and inexperienced will give the most dividends. He need not pander to them on issues, and picking such a traditional conservative, like Palin, will likely not cost him all that much.

Many of these voters would be termed "Reagan Democrats" and many so called older women that Obama has struggled with. Many of them are social conservatives. Others are concerned by Obama's foreign policy experience. Still others were totally turned off to Obama when news of his pastor's virulent anti American diatrobes broke. In other words, in the famous words of Maverick from Top Gun, this is "target rich environment" for McCain. I believe this group makes up as much as 25% of all Hillary voters.

What my analysis shows is that Hillary voters can definitely swing the election. This election will likely come down to a difference of less than 5 million votes, and much less in many battleground states. Twenty five percent of Hillary voters is that five million and if McCain gets that much he will almost certainly win the election. Even if he gets as little as 10%, almost 2 million votes, that will likely be enough. Just how well McCain does with the second and third group in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will likely determine who our next President is.