A "Nuclear Bomb" in the Health Care Debate

That's how Stu Varney of Fox News just described the prelminary budget analysis from the Congressional Budget Office' analysis of Ted Kennedy's version of universal health care.

According to our preliminary assessment, enacting the proposal would result in a net increase in federal budget deficits of about $1.0 trillion over the 2010-2019 period. When fully implemented, about 39 million individuals would obtain coverage through the new insurance exchanges. At the same time, the number of people who had coverage through an employer would decline by about 15 million (or roughly 10 percent), and coverage from other sources would fall by about 8 million, so the net decrease in the number of people uninsured would be about 16 million or 17 million.

These new figures do not represent a formal or complete cost estimate for the draft legislation, for several reasons. The estimates provided do not address the entire bill—only the major provisions related to health insurance coverage. Some details have not been estimated yet, and the draft legislation has not been fully reviewed. Also, because expanded eligibility for the Medicaid program may be added at a later date, those figures are not likely to represent the impact that more comprehensive proposals—which might include a significant expansion of Medicaid or other options for subsidizing coverage for those with income below 150 percent of the federal poverty level—would have both on the federal budget and on the extent of insurance coverage.

So, the analysis runs like this. It will cost $1 trillion over the next ten years and it will only cover one third of those uninsured. It should be noted that the figure of uninsured also includes illegal immigrants. The White House is already in full damage countrol mode. The statement from the White House is that the plan analyzed by the CBO is NOT the final plan.

That's all true, however, it's very unlikely that the final plan will cost all that much less. So, we can expect that covering all those uninsured in America will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 billion yearly.

That is simply something that will not happen. The public was already weary of Obama's health care reform package and that's when the public expected it to cost $100 billion yearly to insure all those that are currently uninsured. Now, the CBO has figured that number to be three times that estimate.

Furthermore, within the analysis is the prediction that about 23 million people would be removed from the private insurance rolls. This is due to the crowding out effect of the public insurance option. As such, the CBO agrees with those like me that assert that public health insurance would eventually crowd out more and more private health insurance providers until eventually it becomes the only option.

There is no doubt that this analysis is like a haymaker to a fighter that just took the eight count. If Obama's health insurance still passes then Republicans have only themselves to blame. Now, they have all the ammunition they need to make the case that this is the wrong plan at the wrong time.