Examining Bush's Legacy

Presidents often leave office with popularity that differs from their popularity. For instance, when Calvin Coolidge left office the economy of the 1920's was still roaring. While polls weren't a mainstay of politics, it's likely that if they were he would have left office with high marks. Harry Truman, on the other hand, left office at the end of the protracted Korean War. His approval ratings were even worse than the current President's. Yet, generations later, it is Truman that is seen as a President of significant esteem while Coolidge's administration is generally dismissed. Then again, often times Presidents leave office with the same marks as their legacies. Jimmy Carter left office deeply unpopular and his legacy hasn't been helped since he left office. Ronald Reagan left office with similar popularity to that which he enjoyed throughout his Presidency. His legacy hasn't suffered one bit since he left office. So, what will be the fate of President Bush? Only time will tell, and his legacy will certainly be determined by folks with more power and influence than me. That said, with months left, I will take a stab at determining his legacy.

There is no doubt that 9/11 will determine a great deal of Bush's legacy. The fact that there have been no attacks on our soil since 9/11 may be minimized by his opponents, the media, and an increasingly apathetic public, but it's likely that history will give that feat more significance. Ironically enough, this will gain more significance depending on how future President's record is on the same matter.

That said, his foreign legacy is will be interlocked with the war with Iraq. While the war has been a terrible drag on his current popularity, history has a way of looking at wars differently than the public does while they are happening. The Civil War dragged Lincoln's popularity down significantly. In fact, all wars that last long enough will do that to a President. In fact, President Lincoln faced an eerily similar opposition from the Democratic Party that President Bush faced from the same Democratic Party in 2007. Just like the current President, Lincoln was able to beat back the opposition and soon after the North made a stunning turn around and ultimately history proved Lincoln right. President Bush faced his own showdown with the opposition, and the war saw a similar remarkable turn around.

Winston Churchill once said something very relevant about this subject

history is written by winners

No matter how difficult the road to victory has been in Iraq, the U.S. is now on its way to victory. The difficulty of the Civil War is downplayed in most history books. Lincoln is now lauded as a President that showed leadership and courage in guiding the country through its dark hour. Most people don't realize that his political opponents as well as many in the press demonized and criticized Lincoln in ways then that would make the attacks on the current President seem mild. Here is just an example from the 1864 Democratic Party Platform.

Resolved, That this convention does explicitly declare, as the sense of the American people, that after four years of failure to restore the Union by the experiment of war, during which, under the pretense of a military necessity of war-power higher than the Constitution, the Constitution itself has been disregarded in every part, and public liberty and private right alike trodden down, and the material prosperity of the country essentially impaired, justice, humanity, liberty, and the public welfare demand that immediate efforts be made for a cessation of hostilities, with a view of an ultimate convention of the States, or other peaceable means, to the end that, at the earliest practicable moment, peace may be restored on the basis of the Federal Union of the States.

Victory proved Lincoln right and his critics wrong. The same fate may await the current President. Certainly, I believe that his legacy vis a vis Iraq will be much better than its current perception of his Presidency. If victory is attained, then the Bush Doctrine will also see a vindication. If Iraq becomes a functioning Democracy, then all those critics that said that Democracy couldn't happen in the Middle East will be proven wrong. While it is a concept lost on Americans now, a functioning and free Iraq still free decades later will be a remarkable lasting legacy for the current President.

Domestically, the President will be tied to two significant economic events, theinternet bubble and the real estate bubble. While his opponents and the media try and downplay his tax cuts, I suspect history will give them their due. When Bush came into office, the internet bubble had cost three trillion dollars in paper losses from March through December of 2000. Only eight months into his term, 9/11 caused one million jobs lost in its immediate aftermath. Its total impact was trillions. At roughly the same time, Enron began a domino effect of significant companies like WorldCom admitting that their profits throughout the nineties were nothing more than fraud. This was the economic landscape that President Bush was left with. Yet, the recession of 2001-2003 was rather mild. It never tured into a depression even though the economic perfect storm of the three events I described should have put the country into one. While opponents pretend as though his tax cuts did nothing, and often they claim they hurt, that is just nonsense. Bush never got credit for the economic recovery that his tax cuts stimulated from the antagonistic press corp and equally antagonistic political opponents, however, history has a way of cutting through such nonsensical spin.

The real estate bubble will likely, however, be as big a stain on his legacy as his tax cuts will contribute to it. I am of the opinion that Alan Greenspan deserves most of the blame for the crisis, however I don't know if history will isolate one individual the way I have. Calvin Coolidge's legacy was stained because he stood idly by while speculative behavior drove the economic boon. That all came to an end when the stock market crashed on October 29th, 1929 and his own legacy was sealed on that fateful day. The current President ignored similarly speculative behavior throughout his Presidency often touting the explosion of home ownership while it was happening. Just as history has been cruel to Coolidge for ignoring the warning signs that lead to the crash of 1929, history maybe just as cruel to Bush for ignoring similar warning signs.

In my opinion, the biggest stain on Bush's legacy will come from his relationship with Vladimir Putin. While Bush considered Putin a friend, Putin was slowly not only consolidating power internally, but looking to consolidate power externally. Bush totally misread Putin when he said that he looked into his soul and saw a good man. Putin is a thug, and because Bush didn't see this right away, he allowed this thug to gain in power while Bush looked the other way. In my opinion, Putin is on a collision course for a new Cold War and this one will likely have real military battles. If that happens, Bush's neglect will be a huge stain on his legacy.

Bush's most lasting act as President may wind up being overlooked in his legacy, and that is his choices of John Roberts and Sam Alito to the Supreme Court. Supreme Court justices seem to be dismissed in historical terms, and that's inexplicable to me. Dwight Eisenhower famously pointed to Justice Brennan and Justice Warren as the two biggest mistakes of his Presidency. Yet, those two mistakes have had negligible effects on his legacy. Certainly, the debacle of Katrina will be a stain, however I am not sure just how much history will judge it. What's unclear is how much his legacy will be stained by his total lack of fiscal discipline and the corruption that this lead to. All in all, I believe that President Bush will have a fairly mixed legacy. He will certainly be seen in history as a much better President than any of his critics will ever admit. At the same time, his legacy is much more stained than any of his long time supporters will care to admit.