The Very Complicated Nature of the War Between Georgia and Russia

On the one hand, the current conflict between Georgia and Russia is not very much different than any between the school ground bully and the weak kid, except the stakes and weapons are significantly larger. The behavior of Russia, on the one hand, is really no different than any bully anywhere. They are merely picking on an entity that is too weak to fight back. If this is your view, I can understand it and I believe there is a lot of truth to it. That said, that simplistic view leaves out a lot of details and nuance that makes this situation very complicated. Mind you that none of these twists and turns should be used as some sort of justification for what Russia has done. In fact, the only thing I know for sure in this conflict is that Vladimir Putin is a grade A sociopath and any and all actions by him should be viewed through that prism.

That said the province in dispute, South Ossetia, has long been the subject of great dispute itself. This province has for more than a decade declared its own independence even though that independence has not been recognized by any world organization including the UN, EU, or NATO. Thus, while the world treats South Ossetia as an entity that is part of the Republic of Georgia, South Ossetia sees itself as its own entity. Second, Russia didn't merely invade with no provocation. They invaded after the start of hostilities between rebel Ossetian forces and Georgian troops.

Now, most may in fact view this as Russia's entrance into another country's civil war, and this view isn't entirely wrong. That said, let's also keep in mind that such a view would have seen the French support for our own revolutionary forces in the same way. Of course, even that historical reference has another view as Dick Morris explains.

On October 3, 1938, Adolf Hitler’s armies marched into Sudetenland, a part of Czechoslovakia. Germany said it was responding to separatist demands from the large German population that lived there and that she was merely honoring their desire for reunion with Germany. Hitler’s tanks took over a vital part of an independent country that had largely rejected his overtures and allied itself with the West. Neither Britain nor France nor the United States did a thing to stop him.

On August 7, 2008, Vladimir Putin’s armies marched into South Ossetia, a part of Georgia. Russia said it was responding to separatist demands from the large Russian population that lived there and that she was merely honoring their desire for reunion with Russia. Putin’s tanks took over a vital part of an independent country that had largely rejected his overtures and allied itself with the West. Neither Britain nor
France nor the United States did a thing to stop him.Encouraged by his occupation of Sudetenland, Hitler continued his designs on Czechoslovakia itself and invaded the rest of the nation a few months later.

Furthermore, the stance of the U.S. in the Balkans and in all former republics of Yugoslavia has generally been support for breakaway republics that attempt to start their own nations. As such, if this dispute were between Georgia and South Ossetia, then our natural support should go to South Ossetia as they attempt to start their own nation.

Then, there is the issue of what the world community can and will do. Most are in agreement that this is an act of aggression by the Russians, however there is little agreement about what we can and will do. The United Nations will be impotent on this issue since Russia holds veto power. Furthermore, neither the European Union nor NATO are apt to act since Georgia is not a member of either. NATO could hold an emergency session and immediately approve Georgia's membership. Since an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all, this would be a bold and confrontational step. Of course, most of the members of NATO are unlikely to favor such a move. The most immediate action would be the removal of Russia from the G8.

Of course, any action by the world community is complicated by Russia's control of a significant portion of oil. Any aggressive action to curb Russia's incursion into Ossetia could easily be met by their disruption of oil drilling. This sort of action could have a devastating effect on the price of oil at a time when the world economy can ill afford any more significant increase to the price of gasoline. Furthermore, oil maybe at the center of this conflict for other reasons as Powerline explains.

News reports indicate that Russia may have tried to bomb the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs through Georgia. If so, the bombs missed, and flow of oil through the pipeline was not interrupted. The BTC pipeline runs from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey; note Russia to the north and Iran to the south:

...

The pipeline, in which British Petroleum is the lead partner, can carry up to one million barrels of oil per day. It is of considerable strategic significance, as it is the only means by which countries in the region like Azerbaijan can get their oil into the international market without relying on Russia. The Daily Mail writes:

It is crucial to the world’s volatile energy market and the only oil and gas route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region.

So, what we have is a very complicated geopolitical situation in which the stakes couldn't be higher. The answers are few and most aren't altogether great. As this situation develops, everyone should keep all of this in mind.