Forget the Polls...Watch the Issues (or Why McCain Has a Real Shot to Win)

There is no better way to know that someone is either a bitter partisan or a political novice than if they make the subject of a story a brand new poll that verifies their view of the world. First, any poll three months from an election is itself nearly irrelevant. Second, one poll at any time is almost always irrelevant. Only a partisan would isolate one poll and draw attention to it as though there is any significance there. Either that or the author of said piece is a political novice and doesn't know any better. Quite possibly, they may just be making their story to take advantage of readers they suspect to be novices politically. Rather than watch the polls, the best indicator of who is in best position to win is to watch which issue or issues is most important at the time of the election.

Right now, one or more of these issues will decided the election: foreign policy, the economy, or gas prices. Other issues may yet emerge and of course there is always a certain amount of unknown, but as it stands now, depending on which of these three is most important, compared to the other two, that will decide the election.

1) The economy.

I believe the reason that Obama continues to lead slightly is that right now the economy continues to be the most important issue for most voters. Barack Obama has been effective in tying McCain's policies along with President Bush's. He has been effective in demonizing the Bush tax cuts and he has effectively turned McCain's support for making them permanent into a continuation of the same failed policies of the last eight years. Say what you will about Obama's economic plans, policy wise, but they are effective politically. He has promised reforms, regulation, and government action. I question the wisdom of such a plan, but there is no doubt he has public opinion on his side.

McCain can still make this his issue and what he needs to do is take Dick Morris' advice.

McCain can put economist after economist on the air to prophesy depression if Obama’s plan for taxes is enacted. And the public will not be reassured by the Democrat’s claims that his tax hikes are only on the rich.

McCain needs to turn the economy from a referendum on the past, where he loses, into a choice on the future. Obama is winning the economic argument because he has simultaneously effectively demonized Bush's policies, tied McCain to them, and made his own policies part of his overall theme of "change".

McCain needs to move the debate from the existential debate over change over status quo, and make it a debate between specifics. What will happen when Barack Obama raises the capital gains tax, the payroll tax, and the top tax rate during a period of weakening? What will happen when he raises the taxes on corporations during a period of weakening? All of these questions have obvious answers however they can't be answered effectively unless they are asked effectively. So far, McCain has failed to answer them effectively.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama needs to continue to do what he has been. He needs to continue condemning the greedy bankers and mortgage brokers and continue to blame the close relationship between the Bush administration, and D.C. in general, for contributing to looking the other way while they created excess. He needs to continue to demonize the Bush tax cuts pointing out that they lined the pockets of wealthy CEO's while the wages of the average person stagnated. He needs to continue to ask this question "are you better off than you were eight years ago?"

Thus, as it stands, if this election is about the economy then Obama wins.

2) Gas prices.

This may still be the number one issue depending on how high gas prices are when the election happens. Ironically enough, with gas prices creeping down, this hurts McCain's position. On this issue, once McCain took the early bold step of flip flopping on the issue of off shore drilling he immediately began to own the issue. It didn't hurt that Barack Obama's policy proposals reminded most of Jimmy Carter. It furthermore helps McCain that the Republicans are trying their hardest to make this a frontline issue while the Democrats are running away from it at hyper speed.

This issue continues to be open to either if either can verbaliz an effective plan for true energy independence. So far, Obama has offered platitudes and vague calls for more investment in alternative energy won't do it. If either formulates a specific and effective policy for long term energy independence they will own the issue. So far though, McCain owns it with his early support of off shore drilling. If gas prices are above four dollars a gallon at the time of the election look for McCain to win.

3) Foreign policy, national security and the GWOT.

To me at least, during periods of war, there should be no other issues. Unless we win the war nothing else matters. Because we haven't been attacked in over seven years and Iraq has improved remarkably, most voters disagree with me. Because Iraq is on the brink of victory, ironically enough it is no longer an issue of great importance. Of course, it is also not an issue that will help McCain in any substantive way even though he showed political courage of the highest kind in supporting the surge when no one else would.

That said, national security as a whole can at any time become a front burner issue. Here it is really not a contest. McCain has instant credibility and trust on all such issues. Nowhere is the massive difference in experience more evident than in how the two are perceived on national security. Furthermore, Barack Obama has weakened his own position by taking so many different positions on such matters that it is unclear to the voters exactly what his foreign policy vision is. If this election is about national security, then McCain wins and he wins huge. A good test of its importance can come in the next week. Given the outbreak of war in Georgia, we can watch and see how quickly it can become national security becomes at the front of people's minds. Either most voters will see Georgia as a far away place with little strategic value for the U.S., or they will see the conflict as a reminder that we live in a dangerous world. If it is the former, Barack Obama ought to maintain his lead. If it is the latter, most folks will also intuitively feel a first term Senator is NOT the one to protect us.

Many things can still happen that can immediately make national security the front burner issue. Iran and Israel are on a collision course for war. Depending on the dynamics, that potential conflict can make national security a front burner issue at anytime. Pakistan is terribly unstable. Again, the dynamics there can move the issue to the front at anytime. Iraq and Afghanistan can flare up, or either candidate can make this issue the front burner issue. Either way, if it is, then John McCain wins in November.

So, in my estimation, the good news for John McCain is that two of three potential front burner issues are good for him. The good news for Barack Obama is that the current front burner issue favors him. How these issues will play out will go a very long way toward determining which candidate wins.