Why The GOP Lost IL 14

Over this past weekend, there was a special election to the U.S. House of Representatives seat vacated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert. In a stunning, and possibly ominous, upset Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis. Wikipedia gives Il 14 a plus five for Republicans. Given the former speaker is the former holder of the seat, there is absolutely no reason that this should have gone anything but Republican. Thus, in the aftermath pundits everywhere have been looking for larger meaning. In August of 2005, Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won in Ohio's 2nd district in another special election. This district hadn't gone Democrat since 1974. Many people felt this special election was a pre cursor of the Republican's nightmare in November of 2006. Many of those same people are now looking at this election as another pre cursor of another nightmare for Reps in November of 2008.

Dennis Byrne, of the Chicago Tribune, has a different perspective on the matter. Byrne sees the failure in Il 14 as yet another sign of the self destruction of the Republican Party in Illinois. Byrne is absolutely accurate in his description of the Republican Party in the state of Illinois. Ever since the disgraced removal of George Ryan, the state party has been nothing more than a disaster. They nominated Jack Ryan to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Ryan was forced to withdraw after tawdry details were made public in connection to his divorce from his previous wife, Jeri Ryan. (This of course lead to the rise of Barack Obama who was the opponent and cruised to victory by more than 70% over sacrificial lamb Alan Keyes, after the party actually flirted with Mike Ditka)

In this district, the party selected Jim Oberweis. Oberweis had already shown a knack for losing state elections. He had twice lost for the Senate and once for the governor. Oberweis had a bitter battle with his primary opponent, Chris Lauzen. It was so bitter that Lauzen refused to endorse Oberweis after it was over. Byrne points out that the party went with Oberweis because he was the one that Hastert himself had supported.

Byrne makes a compelling and powerful arguement that Il 14 is nothing more than the total and complete lack of competence on the part of the state party. On some levels I, as a partisan Republican, would like to believe that. (even if the blame falls squarely on my state party) Unfortunately, while I believe that everything Byrne says is true, I don't believe that this is only the incompetence of the state and the candidate it chose. This seat had no business falling into Democratic hands, and given that it comes at a time when Democratic turnout is much more healthy than Republican, I believe this loss leaves all Republicans with a lot to think about.