The trend for the five months is decreasing deaths. We have seen this across the spectrum of measurements so to speak. Coalition deaths are down, Iraqi military deaths are down as well as civilian deaths.
At this point, even the MSM has stopped arguing that the surge has lead to a substantial decrease in violence.
The continued arguements against the surge are now two fold: the lull in violence is temporary and will increase once our troops are removed, and this lull in violence has not lead to any political compromise.
While there is no way to prove the first arguement, it does disregard that the surge stratey is not only an increase in troops. The strategy is multi pronged: increase troops, move more troops from F.O.B's to within the population, pair up with Iraqi troops so that they can do more and more of the work, and of course reach out to the VIP's within the local communities. If the other prongs to the strategy are being implemented effectively, the troop surge will only be necessary for a temporary period. We, of course, have seen examples of each of the other prongs all over Iraq and the Anbar Awakening is themost prominent.
The other arguement says that the troop surge has failed because the lull in violence has not lead to any political reconciliation. This arguement uses the ineffectiveness of the central government as the centerpiece of arguing against the troop surge. The central government is a mess and they will contribute little if anything to the overall health of the nation, however there is plenty of political reconciliation happening...it just isn't happening within the central government.
Here is the most recent example I found. A special hat tip goes to Jeff Emanuel of Redstate who has made several trips to embed with the troops in Iraq.
Called “basically a thumb in the eye at a Maliki government that won’t get its [act] together” by one American officer whose unit I spent time with in August, the Concerned Local Citizens program puts ground-level security in the hands of the individual tribes and groups who need it most. Under the program’s coalition-crafted guidelines, members of individual tribes are allowed to arm themselves and to conduct their own security operations and patrols, provided that, among other requirements, they submit to the authority of Coalition and Iraqi Security forces.
The main premise behind the Concerned Local Citizens program is simply the belief that Iraqis as a whole oppose the militias and terrorist groups that have plagued Iraq for the last several years – and that citizen empowerment, backed by the coalition, will lead to a rejection of the forces that terrorize the civilian population in a given area. The idea was borne out of the ‘Anbar Awakening,’ which saw tribal leaders and citizens rise up and band together to fight against al Qaeda in Iraq.
Fed up with those who offered, in the words of one tribal sheik, “only death,” the leaders of Anbar’s tribes – despite historical enmities – joined forces with the coalition and with each other to drive al Qaeda from their territory. Following this uprising, the Awakening blossomed into a grassroots movement to rebuild and reunite Anbar province around a free and independent network of tribes and clans.
Comparing the concerned citizens to the neighborhood watch is in my opinion quite accurate. It is also a firm sign that the Iraqis have taken it upon themselves to come together politically. They haven't done it on a national level and they don't have to in my opinion. We are seeing local and regional political reconciliation. It is frankly absurd to say that violence has had such a dramatic downturn without political reconciliation. The two things don't happen in a vacuum and they do depend on one another.
“The threat's always there,” Sergeant Chuck Balley told me as he looked blankly at nothing in particular. “Everybody is sketchy.”
Maybe they are. But very few people in Fallujah try to kill Americans – or other Iraqis – anymore. It has been months since a single Marine in Fallujah has been even wounded, let alone killed. But at least a handful of disorganized insurgents still lurk in the city. Once a week or so somebody takes a shot at the Americans.
“Do you have plates in that Kevlar?” one Marine sergeant said to me as I donned my body armor on our way into the city. He was referring to steel SAPI plates that fit inside Kevlar vests that can stop even a sniper round.
“No,” I said, and I didn't care. The odds that I, personally, would be the first person shot in Fallujah for months were microscopic.
“Look,” he said. “You are not gonna get shot. But you should still carry some
plates.”One lieutenant forced me to wear Marine-issue body armor – which weighs almost 80 pounds – before he would let me go out on patrol with him. I felt like Godzilla lumbering around with all the extra bulk and weight, and I didn’t really feel safer. Running while carrying those extra pounds all of a sudden wasn’t much of an option. Sacrificing most of my speed and agility to make myself a little more bullet-proof might not be worth it. But perhaps that’s just what I told myself so I could justify wearing lighter and more comfortable armor. It’s hard to say. What I do know for certain is that Fallujah at the end of 2007 was neither scary nor stressful. No one can go there right now without feeling what is perhaps a dangerous sense of complacency.
Here is an interesting piece about what the lack of violence has done for normal life in Iraq...
Ilanded not too long ago after flying in a Blackhawk for nearly an hour back
and forth across Baghdad tonight. I've flown across Baghdad at night many times
before, but this time was different. The city was alive.Most of the city had electricity, every main street and boulevard was
jam-packed with cars, stretching as far as I could see. Fireworks were shooting
up from every major intersection, and I could see outdoor markets and
restaurants brightly lit up and filled with people. It's like a black cloud has
been lifted off the residents of Baghdad, and they're finally able to do what
they want to.Sure, flying low over the city in a helicopter while people are shootings fireworks and weapons into the air isn't the greatest place to be, but the beauty and energy coming up from the streets far outweighed my fears. I feel lucky to have been a part of it all.
After I landed I made my way back to my office to catch up on some last minute email before dinner ended, and this Drudge headline caught my attention."For hopeful Iraqis, New Year's parties at last"For once, Reuters got it right.
The situation remains fluid however ever more hopeful.
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