First, based on the RCP polls this situation is fluid and beyond any predictions. Instead, let's do a sort of political version of football playoff scenarios and take a look and see what each of the main candidates needs to do.
Mitt Romney. Romney must win in my opinion. Anything less blows his entire strategy. He has dollars but little organization or reach outside of Iowa and New Hampshire. He outspent his opponents in each state and spent significantly more time there than anyone else. If he doesn't win both, he is dead in the water in the rest of the country.
Mike Huckabee. Huckabee must also win. He has zoomed up in the polls and I have pointed out that you cannot quantify charisma, charm and likeability. You can, however, quantify how much money he has and how much organization he has. He has little of both. He needs one in order to get the other, and without a victory he won't see the dollars move in. It will also mean he loses momentum in NH and will likely be an also ran there. If he doesn't win either of the first two states, his national numbers will likely fall as quickly as they rose.
John McCain- He realistically needs to finish no worse than third. McCain has done almost no campaigning in Iowa and has doubled down in NH. If he takes third in Iowa, that will be perceived as a victory and will give exactly the sort of momentum he needs to win in NH. Like Huckabee in Iowa, McCain must win in NH. He has little of both money and organization and neither will come without an early victory. Ironically, McCain is likely also rooting for Hillary. Her victory would at least help his campaign. If she wins Iowa, she has essentially sowed up the nomination. If that is the perception, many of the moderates in NH will vote in the Republican primary, and moderates are McCain's bread and butter.
Rudy Giuliani- Rudy has national presence, organization, and money and thus he can and of course will disappoint in Iowa. In Iowa, Rudy has the Huckabee proxy. Rudy's strategy relies on no one else gaining momentum. If Huckabee wins in Iowa that stalls the momentum Romney will need. Because Romney has money, his is the campaign that is most a threat to Rudy. Rudy then has McCain as a proxy in NH. If Huckabee and McCain win Iowa and NH respectively that would set up Rudy's fifty state strategy nicely. The trifecta would be Romney or another candidate winning South Carolina and then there is absolutely no momentum for anyone going into Florida. Rudy would then win Florida and walk in with some serious momentum into Feb 5 where he would likely sweep New Jersey, Cali, and Illinois and get the nomination.
Fred Thompson- His campaign is on life support and he needs to surprise people. He has to take at least third or he will likely drop out. Even a third place finish will likely do nothing but extend a lackluster campaign.
Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter et al, I don't know or care...
The Dems.
Hillary- She doesn't need to win however a victory will all but lock up the nomination. A loss will NOT be a death blow however it will turn the nomination wide open. Things are so fluid that it is hard to tell how much if any momentum a victory will mean in Iowa. Because she maintains a large national lead though, a victory will all but assure the nomination.
Obama- He must win. That said, if he does, he has a better than fifty fifty chance of winning NH and then a better than fifty fifty chance of the nomination. If he loses, he is done. He won't drop out by any means, and he may still even take New Hampshire, however there won't really be any momentum. He needs momentum to erase the huge national deficits. If he doesn't win both Iowa and NH he won't get it.
Edwards- He also needs to win though even if he did, I don't see him gaining the nomination. Both Obama and Clinton provide a fascination and appeal to Democratic voters that Edwards simply doesn't have.
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