tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3098264341625381422.post5157950071788660022..comments2024-03-18T17:01:07.165-07:00Comments on The Provocateur: Slow Down on All the Economic Optimismmike volpehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02999118519606254362noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3098264341625381422.post-8580439799871802222009-05-05T13:19:00.000-07:002009-05-05T13:19:00.000-07:00I'm not arguing that jobs aren't a lagging indicat...I'm not arguing that jobs aren't a lagging indicator, and I agree with your explanation for why they are. <br /><br />That said, if we were losing fifty or even one hundred thousand jobs, that would be one thing. We are losing north of half a million jobs monthly. That's an extra half a million people every month that aren't contributing to the economy. How can anyone say we are in the beginning of a recovery when we are adding so many new and unproductive people to the economy every month.mike volpehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02999118519606254362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3098264341625381422.post-7229466422712116232009-05-05T12:55:00.000-07:002009-05-05T12:55:00.000-07:00I've been advising people on the stock market and ...I've been advising people on the stock market and they all seem to be getting antsy that the market hasn't fallen like I said it was going to soon. But its just like you said, Mike, I cannot in good conscience encourage people to go long in stocks right now because I see absolutely no reason to do so.<br /><br />As far as the economy recovering in the midst of job losses, that should be fairly obvious. Jobs are a lagging indicator because companies are still looking to cut jobs and squeeze every last ounce of productivity out of the workers they still have so they can grow as much as they can before having to hire again. Its why some companies cut jobs even when they're still profitable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3098264341625381422.post-1660719617854394942009-05-05T09:31:00.000-07:002009-05-05T09:31:00.000-07:00WRT the current monetary policy, I believe the fol...WRT the current monetary policy, I believe the following to be true… (P>0.85):<br /><br />-GDP world - $ 55 trillion<br />-GDP USA - $ 13.7 trillion<br />-Taxes coll. US - $ 3.7 trillion <br />- Gov expenses - $ 4.2 trillion <br />- Deficit annual ( for the last few years….) ~$500 billion<br /><br />- Debt (sept 08) $ 10.3 trillion (accumulated till sep 08)<br />- Chinese ‘held’ debt - $ 1.2 trillion (only)<br />- Other countries - $ 3.1 trillion <br />- FED ‘holds’ debt - $ 6.4 trillion - - This is ‘held ‘ in Bonds that were never sold – i.e. thin air…<br /><br />Since sept 08, we have added:<br /> - TARP - $ 0.7 trillion<br /> - Univ Med - $ 0.48 trillion<br /> - Stimulus - $ 0.7 trillion (good name for a roman emperor !)<br /> - For Banks - $ 1.0 trillion<br /> - Adding to another - $ 3.0 trillion , also made up from fresh air. <br /><br />- So now the DEBT sits at about $ 13 trillion - $ 13E12 on my calculator.<br /><br /> OF WHICH 10 TRILLION IS MADE UP OF THIN AIR…<br /> (some say more, some say less….)<br /><br />About 3 weeks ago, the US, the UK and Germany held an auction to sell their ‘BONDS’… nobody bought.<br /><br />I would love to have someone explain to me how this is going to get paid up. They obviously cannot collect more in taxes, even if they slash Medicare and Medicaid, they still will be in no position to pay. <br />The inflationary pressure exerted by all this ‘monopoly’ money creation is amazing. Some economists have talked about 20 cents on the dollar…<br /><br />Add to this:<br />Government takeover of businesses.<br />Support to unionization – ‘card check’ legislation.<br />The amazing invitation to wholesale fraud that all these ‘impossible-to-control-or-manage’ moneys create.<br />Cap & Trade.<br />Green technologies subsidies.<br />Credit card defaults, as the unemployment grows – the Debt in Credit Cards is of the order of $ 12 trillion.<br />The mortgage defaults – the CRA promoted mortgages and ‘NINJA’ loans of the order of $ 1.7 trillion.<br />The ‘promised’ Social Security support for the boomers, most of which have already lost 40 % of their retirement investments – another $ 20 trillion…<br /><br />We’re in for a bumpy ride !<br /><br />As a side issue, I often wondered how the Chinese and others would guarantee their loans. My investigation led me to ‘foreign ownership’ of the USA. Real State, Corporations, Casinos in Vegas, Beach houses, etc. These added up until Jan 2007 to 48%. A staggering ratio of foreign ownership – the Americans have been selling their country to sustain a huge population of non-producers. (in my estimation could be about ~ 100 million souls.) Some here would go on and blame the working American for a lavish undeserved lifestyle, I have a somewhat different take on it as you see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com